Our own calamitous leader

In the EU, all the governing leaders with the exception of one would be horrified if the US gets Catastrophic Donald to the presidency. They see him as a major international risk, an unpredictable and unprepared leader at a time the world needs common sense and proven experience in international affairs.

The only one that states clearly he would prefer Catastrophic Donald to win is the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Órban. Naturally, because Mr Órban himself is an aspiring dictator and a deeply rooted xenophobic. He thinks he could get an ally in Washington. Also, he does not want to be the only grotesque leader in charge of a Western country.

But I hope he will continue alone in his retrograde corner of European politics. Political quarantine is the best way to deal with this type of fellows.

No need to go overboard

Serenity is the best answer to all complex challenges. It´s essential to keep that in mind as we face a number of terrorist attacks. They want to destabilize us. We respond with steadiness. And with the appropriate means. No need for dramatic speeches of the kind we watched yesterday in Paris. A few firm words are enough. 

The political leaders and the police work

The fight against terrorism is above all the work of the specialised police services. They should be able to carry out their duties with a great degree of independence. This basically means that the political leaders should not get involved in the technical tasks of the police. They must be advised to do so, to keep a healthy distance from the police and not to fall in the temptation of becoming super police chiefs. That´s not their role.

The politicians should deal with the public dimensions issues and above all, they ought to bring the security feelings back. That´s about promoting a climate of serenity and fighting the propagation of alarmist views. It´s about explaining the security strategies that are being put in place.

Furthermore, their relationship with the police should be about creating the critical conditions for the services to be able to perform in a coordinated and efficient manner.

But police decisions have to remain the prerogative of the police forces. If the politicians try to meddle in such interference will cause confusion in the ranks of the police bosses and will compromise the professional approaches that the challenge of fighting terrorism requires. 

Terrorism: the narrative matters

Tomorrow I should spend some time on the relationship between terrorism and media. Basically, the question is about the way our European media is reporting about the terrorist incidents that have recently caused serious despair in our societies. More specifically, the concern is about the media as amplifiers of the terror atmosphere the criminals want to create among us. How is our serious media telling the stories? The narratives, including the exaggerations, have a major impact on people. And terrorism is about impacting and destabilising as many as possible. We should not be naïve and allow ourselves to serve their objectives.

Furthermore, a crisis psychosis is the ideal ground for the growth of all kinds of opportunistic politicians. They know how to take advantage of our fears. Are we unwillingly helping them?

These are some of the questions on the table. 

Brief note on the EU Global Strategy

In the future, the EU development cooperation policy cannot just be focused on governance, security and human rights. These three domains are certainly crucial. We need to see improvements in all of them. But we cannot ignore the food security challenges, the health needs, education, gender equality, energy and some critical infrastructure. They still required massive foreign aid. They are also essential to lift people out of poverty, including the future mothers of tomorrow. And to make sure people feel encouraged to remain in their native lands. A comprehensive view of development cannot just be reduced to one size fits all.

Distant Syria

The Syrian crisis has disappeared from the front pages. There have been so many other shocking pieces of news during the last weeks. They took all the headline space available. Syria is now something distant and routine. Deadly familiar. Forgotten. And even when the matter pops in, as it happened earlier this week in Washington, it was to discuss the so-called Islamic State or Daesh, not to look for ways of ending the long-lasting hell that Syria has become.

Even the UN seems to have lost sight of the matter.

Or, it would be smart to re-open the case. We must show that we control the agenda, not the terrorists and some other crazy fellows. That we decide about what is on the table. And Syria is certainly a critical issue that cannot skip out of our eyes. 

The UN race is moving on

Today´s straw poll in the Security Council should be seen as an important step towards the election of the next UN Secretary-General. One should see several candidates leaving the race in the very near future. Those with a good number of “discourage” votes have very few motives to stay on. Some of those negative votes might come from permanent members and that would mean no, later in the day.

In the circumstances, Antonio Guterres seems to be a solid contender. He got 12 votes of encouragement and no vote advising him to go. That would make it less tempting for new names to step in. It´s getting a bit late, after today´s results. That´s the message those supporting Guterres´s candidacy should keep stressing. They have to discourage others from joining the race. 

But he also needs to watch carefully two existing candidates: Danilo Turk, the former President of Slovenia, and Irina Bokova, the Bulgarian that heads UNESCO. She remains the woman that can make it. That is a good rallying point in her favour. And Turk has some serious support within the Council.

But both Turk and Bokova have adverse votes. And that might be too difficult for them to overcome. That´s their major unknown at this stage. 

The candidates and the Security Council

Tomorrow the UN Security Council will be voting for the first time this year on the matter of the next Secretary-general. This initial round is just to clean the list of candidates a bit. As a result, a few will get an indication that their candidature cannot fly. They will withdraw silently and the process would move on.

My reading is that the geopolitical considerations will matter considerably. The Council will certainly look at the Eastern European candidates with greater attention. And then, at the gender issue.

Turkey: a major shock

The fast moving circumstances in Turkey are now a major headache for that country´s Western allies. Actually, it is more accurate to say that today´s situation is causing a massive shock in our leading circles. Our leaders cannot believe their eyes. They see a level of revenge that is just unacceptable. And they also see that the key institutions of Turkey are under a very serious attack. That starts with the Armed Forces, which are now extremely fragile, confused, frightened and humiliated. That´s certainly not good at all for a country that is located in an extremely complex and dangerous region of the world. And we can expect more complications in the days to come.

The Turkish dilemmas

One should be very worried by the developing situation in Turkey. From a domestic point of view, it is essential to be guided by democratic values and full respect of the rule of law. From a European point of view, the situation brings a great deal of additional complexity to a relationship that was already very challenging.