Vladimir Putin is for ever

Vladimir Putin's current term of office ends in 2024. His country’s Constitution stipulates that he cannot run again. He has been in power for 20 years. But today, in the middle of all the sad and worrying news about the coronavirus, we got a nice breeze of fresh air coming from Moscow. The Russian Duma – Parliament – has approved a resolution that opens the way for Mr. Putin to stay in power until 2036. He will be 84 by then. That’s a very nice age for an early retirement from the Russian politics.

President Erdogan's visit to Brussels

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was in Brussels today.

First, he met the Secretary-General of NATO. He got a very simple message. NATO is already doing quite a bit for Turkey, in terms of deployment of radars and other means of defence. But it can’t do much more, particularly in support of Turkey’s campaign inside Syria. That would bring the Organization, sooner or later, into a direct clash with Russia. Nobody within the Alliance wants that to happen. Moreover, many within NATO are yet to understand the special defence relationship President Erdogan has developed with the Russian President. He seems to have one foot in NATO and the other in Moscow. That’s certainly a strange policy.

Second, he spent time with the EU leaders, Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen. The meeting came to no real conclusion. There is little love left within the EU for Erdogan’s actions, in particular for his manipulation of the migrant and refugee populations. Erdogan is seen by many as a problem, a big challenge at the gates of Europe.

If there is one conclusion to take from the visit, I would say that in Europe there is no trust on President Erdogan’s ambitions. That should be clearly stated.

International Women's Day

International Women’s Day is about equality between men and women, boys and girls. It is about equal rights. We can celebrate what has already been achieved but we have also to acknowledge the shortcomings and wrongs.

It is an ongoing struggle. In many societies, there is still a long road ahead. It must be walked without further delays. A nation that leaves behind the women does not belong to today’s times. It must catch up.

In our part of the world, it is more about attitudes that have yet to change, it is about implementing what we know it is right, transforming into reality the nice words we pronounce.

In both cases, and in very practical terms, it all begins with education and putting an end to all types of violence practised against women and girls. 

The best way to move forward is to have women in positions of power, including political and economic power. I know that men in leading roles can also fight for women’s rights. We have several cases we could mention. But in my own experience, I have learned that it is much better, more impactful, to have those leading roles taken up by women.

Contain, contain, contain

Today’s word is containment. Every government should ask themselves what they can do to more efficiently contain the epidemic. That must be the priority. But containment is not just about the disease. It is a lot, a great deal, about the disease. Indeed. But is also about the panic and the epidemic’s impact on key sectors of the world’s economy.

Javier Pérez de Cuéllar: an exceptional diplomat

I know there are many things going on and competing for today’s headlines. All of them are of great importance. They concern people at the Turkish-Greek border, people in Idlib, Syria, people sick with the Covid-19 pandemic, people losing their jobs because of the pandemic’s tremendous economic impact, young people kept out of their classrooms, and so on. They also concern big political games, such as the Putin-Erdogan meeting, the US elections, the Japanese and the fate of this year’s Olympic Games, or the political crisis in Kabul. But my headline is about the passing away of Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, the former UN Secretary-General. He was an old-style diplomat but a very effective one. During his time at the head of the UN the organization managed to resolve a number of major conflicts and wars. He led an organization that achieved results and was the glue the Security Council needed to be able to function. Respected by everyone, he has shown that charisma is not about being loud and highly visible. Charisma is about persistence, coherence and principles. That summarizes the Secretary-General he was.

Ursula's friend

In her speech of yesterday, at the border between Greece and Turkey, the President of the European Commission said that the Turkish Head of State, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is a friend of Europe. Ursula von der Leyen might have read George Orwell on the flight from Brussels to the border. At least, she got the inspiration and doublespeak he talked about in his book

The border line

Today, the Presidents of the European Council, the Commission and the European Parliament visited the Greek border with Turkey. The Prime Minister of Greece was their host. The message they put across is very clear. The European borders are now closed to mass movements. Immigrants and refugee candidates are not welcome.

The visiting party basically approved the decision taken by the Greek authorities to use all means available to enforce the message. This is a clear shift from the policy line followed by Angela Merkel and others in 2015. It places security and social homogeneity above any other consideration.

The humanitarian dimension is seen as a funding activity. The Europeans pay and others will take care of the refugees. Outside the EU borders. This is the new policy line on mass immigration.

Immigrants at the EU gates

Political pundits keep repeating, since the massive arrival of immigrants and refugees in 2015, that the European Union has no unified policy on the matter. And it is true, in so many ways. Mass immigration and refugee flows are issues that have a serious impact on the stability and moderation of the EU. But there is no overall agreement among the member States on how to deal with the issues. The approach has been to sweep it under the carpet and let the frontline countries manage the challenge. That’s what has happened with Italy and Greece, among others. They were left alone with the problems and no real EU support.

What’s happening now at the Greek-Turkish border adds another element to such approach. Close the border crossings, respond by deploying large numbers of police and soldiers, keep the immigrants on the other side of the barbed wire. That is the policy, a policy that is closer to a common one. A no-entry policy.

But is it sustainable? That’s one of the key questions. The other one is about the humanity of such policy. Is it coherent with the values we say we defend? Third point: can we rely of dictators and other strong men, when we ask them to keep the refugees in their countries and add to that a few billions to pay for the camps?

I recognise this is a complex matter. And I see, once again, that when the issue is complicated, we tend to use a hammer to sort it out.

A challenging March

As we get into March, we can be sure we will have major challenges in front of us. The coronavirus will probably be the most critical. It has all the key ingredients to confuse many of us. People will keep pressing the panic button and the political leaders will be jumping in all directions, just to show to the citizens that they are moving as required. Then, there will be the economic impact. On the economic side, the crisis can be multifaceted. There will be less demand, the supply chains will be disrupted, and many enterprises will face serious cash problems. In addition, the stocks will not be able to recover the immense value that has been lost during the past week and probably the week ahead.

Obviously, the health systems will be under serious stress. They will become distorted as much of the resources will be focused on the Covid-19 pandemic.

Adding to the above, we will see an escalation of the conflict between Turkey and Syria, supported by Russia, a new migratory crisis and a Brexit on the rocks.

This is a time that calls for a new type of leadership.

The Taliban deal

I see the deal signed today in Doha, Qatar, between the U.S. Administration and the medieval armed group that is known as the Taliban of Afghanistan, a terrorist organization, as follows:

1.  It gives the Taliban a good amount of legitimacy and political standing. Both within their country and in the international arena. It is therefore a victorious move for them. It puts the Taliban in a much stronger position than the national government.

2. It is an electoral manoeuvre played by the U.S. President. Donald Trump wants to be able to claim, during the coming months leading to the November Presidential election, that he brought the war in Afghanistan to an end.  Or, at least, that he brought the American soldiers back home from a protracted foreign conflict.

3.  It will not lead to inter-Afghan peace negotiations. The deal was not discussed with the legitimate government in Kabul and it is not seen by its leaders as a commitment they own. The official government will keep fighting the Taliban.

4.  It does not include a justice and reconciliation approach. The atrocities the Taliban are responsible for are just ignored.

5.  It encourages other Islamist groups in other parts of the world to keep fighting.

6.  It took the American allies also deployed in Afghanistan, under the NATO-banner called Resolute Support Mission, for granted. They were not part of the process. They are just supposed to follow suit. Those NATO allies have about 16,000 troops on the ground.