Distant Syria

The Syrian crisis has disappeared from the front pages. There have been so many other shocking pieces of news during the last weeks. They took all the headline space available. Syria is now something distant and routine. Deadly familiar. Forgotten. And even when the matter pops in, as it happened earlier this week in Washington, it was to discuss the so-called Islamic State or Daesh, not to look for ways of ending the long-lasting hell that Syria has become.

Even the UN seems to have lost sight of the matter.

Or, it would be smart to re-open the case. We must show that we control the agenda, not the terrorists and some other crazy fellows. That we decide about what is on the table. And Syria is certainly a critical issue that cannot skip out of our eyes. 

The UN race is moving on

Today´s straw poll in the Security Council should be seen as an important step towards the election of the next UN Secretary-General. One should see several candidates leaving the race in the very near future. Those with a good number of “discourage” votes have very few motives to stay on. Some of those negative votes might come from permanent members and that would mean no, later in the day.

In the circumstances, Antonio Guterres seems to be a solid contender. He got 12 votes of encouragement and no vote advising him to go. That would make it less tempting for new names to step in. It´s getting a bit late, after today´s results. That´s the message those supporting Guterres´s candidacy should keep stressing. They have to discourage others from joining the race. 

But he also needs to watch carefully two existing candidates: Danilo Turk, the former President of Slovenia, and Irina Bokova, the Bulgarian that heads UNESCO. She remains the woman that can make it. That is a good rallying point in her favour. And Turk has some serious support within the Council.

But both Turk and Bokova have adverse votes. And that might be too difficult for them to overcome. That´s their major unknown at this stage. 

The candidates and the Security Council

Tomorrow the UN Security Council will be voting for the first time this year on the matter of the next Secretary-general. This initial round is just to clean the list of candidates a bit. As a result, a few will get an indication that their candidature cannot fly. They will withdraw silently and the process would move on.

My reading is that the geopolitical considerations will matter considerably. The Council will certainly look at the Eastern European candidates with greater attention. And then, at the gender issue.

Turkey: a major shock

The fast moving circumstances in Turkey are now a major headache for that country´s Western allies. Actually, it is more accurate to say that today´s situation is causing a massive shock in our leading circles. Our leaders cannot believe their eyes. They see a level of revenge that is just unacceptable. And they also see that the key institutions of Turkey are under a very serious attack. That starts with the Armed Forces, which are now extremely fragile, confused, frightened and humiliated. That´s certainly not good at all for a country that is located in an extremely complex and dangerous region of the world. And we can expect more complications in the days to come.

The Turkish dilemmas

One should be very worried by the developing situation in Turkey. From a domestic point of view, it is essential to be guided by democratic values and full respect of the rule of law. From a European point of view, the situation brings a great deal of additional complexity to a relationship that was already very challenging. 

Nice

The brutality of the Nice attack is most shocking. There are a few security lessons that can be drawn from this inhumane violence. But that should be done with a cold head. To go for conclusions so soon after the tragedy is not wise. Now it is time to express the horror and share our sympathy with all those who have been impacted by the barbaric act. And also to say that life goes on and we will not change our values and our way of living because some crazy beasts want us to feel terrorised.

May day in the UK

Theresa May is now the new UK Prime Minister. Her most immediate task, as we see it from the EU side, should be to initiate the exit process soonest.

She might not agree with the urgency of it. But the European leaders must keep the pressure on her and help her to understand that there is no gain and no space for delaying manoeuvres. That´s what the European citizens expect from their leaders as well.

I recognise the actual negotiations might take long. Those negotiations are however about technical issues and the very specific points of the future relationship. They should be conducted within a clear political framework, well balanced and based on established principles and rules. It is that guiding framework that needs to be defined first and without any undue delay.

China and the international law

Today´s ruling against China by the Permanent Court of Arbitration, a Hague-based UN-related institution, should be noted as a milestone. It concerns one of the potentially explosive areas of the globe, the South China Sea. It recognises that China´s maritime claims to about 85% of that sea are not founded. Furthermore, the Tribunal stated that China has repeatedly violated the sovereign rights of the Philippines and caused considerable harm to the maritime environment.

This decision will have a serious impact on further developments in the region.

China has not accepted the ruling and will continue its policy of military control of the area. That will clash with the interests of the Philippines and also of the other neighbouring countries. It will also aggravate the naval and political tensions with the US.

But China will be on the wrong side of the international law. And it should be constantly reminded that as a Permanent Member of the Security Council it has special international responsibilities. These responsibilities start with respecting the UN-backed tribunals and their patiently worked out decisions.

The NATO Summit

The NATO Summit in Warsaw, which is about to start, will endorse a major policy shift. It will squarely move the organisation into an all-out deterrence mode. And it will do it based on credible operational capabilities.

Russia might be tempted to respond by accelerating the investments in the modernisation of its armed forces. That´s the most obvious option for them. The one that will satisfy the hard core nationalist part of the Russian public opinion as well as the powerful military establishment.

But I am also convinced that the Kremlin leadership will understand, sooner than later, that re-opening the dialogue with the West is a much better -- and by far, much more affordable -- option than betting on the arms race.

Fighting for the public opinion

It is worrying to see the growing number of opportunistic columnists and politicians writing and stating foolish opinions about the EU. They think that´s what will make them popular and look smart. It´s about their personal gain, as they see it in their hearts. But for me, they  are just unwise and self-centred. And also very dangerous, as they are creating the conditions for a serious backlash in Europe.

It´s time to respond to this very serious threat. To engage in the war of narratives, I mean.