Notice to my readers

This daily notes will be absent for the next four weeks, for reasons of a very demanding commitment.

I will come back to the daily writing on 16 March 2015.

I am counting on your coming back as well.

Thank you to all.

VA

Copenhagen: again the desperate lone wolf

The killings in Copenhagen have shown again that the “lone wolf” has become a significant danger in our societies. This type of solitary killer is basically a younger person who has had serious problems of social integration. He – or she – might also have spent some time in the petty crime circles, with eventually some time served in prison. The killing spree is some kind of swan song. The last expression of a desperation. 

The Copenhagen drama has also shown that such actions are very difficult to prevent. A country can have the best police services in the world, the best integration systems, the best social security schemes, and still be vulnerable to these acts. We have to learn to live with a certain degree of insecurity. And protect the possible targets, as the Danes did, the best we can.

These are complex matters. They are above all criminal acts that are practiced by criminal minds with a strong dose of madness. It would be a very serious mistake to link them just to a community of citizens and put some generalized blame on such community. We condemn the killings, we condemn the perpetrator and we add, the responsibility rests clearly with him.  

Boko Haram requires a powerful and urgent response

At the very beginning of the year my magazine´s editor-in-chief at Visão asked me to write about Africa in 2015. I did. And I spent most of the allocated space focusing on Nigeria, as the country to watch this year. Within Nigeria, the key issue I mentioned was of course Boko Haram. I also said that Boko Haram would be spreading out towards the neighbouring countries. And that´s very much the case today. This terrorist group is not only a major threat to the stability of Nigeria, It is also a serious menace for Niger, Cameron and Chad. As such, it calls for a major international alliance to deal with it. The sooner the international community addresses this very serious problem the better. Nigeria can´t do it. And Chad alone, notwithstanding the strength of its armed forces, is not enough. 

Putin´s litmus test

The new Minsk agreement will be in many ways the litmus test about President Putin´s sincerity. I really hope he will come out of it with high marks, as someone true to his word. The moment is grave and we cannot afford to have deeper crisis with Russia. They actually cannot afford either. So, let´s be hopeful about the ceasefire even we hear quite a number of voices expressing their doubts. We need the Minsk agreement to hold. 

Good news, no war

I came across this piece of news. It comes from a very sensible newspaper, very serious stuff. It is true it´s a bit old: July 1914. But it´s also very actual.

            There will be no European general war…. The six great powers – Germany, Austria and Italy, on one side, and Russia, France and Britain on the other side – cannot afford a clash of arms .… [They] will hesitate at the last moment and endeavor to adjust matters.

            Los Angeles Times, 27 July 1914

AQMI and Boko Haram should be wiped out soonest

Besides other places, there is concern in Burkina Faso and Niger that Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, also known as AQMI, are trying to establish a logistics and safety corridor between them. The authorities in these countries think the threat is serious enough. It should not either be ignored or treated lightly.

I am not sure about the link between the two organizations. But I for sure think that fighting both of them is a matter of great urgency. They call for decisive action. They should be smashed. We have been too slow in responding to these terrorist groups. And when we hesitate they take it as a licence to expand and bring instability and death to new areas of influence.

Again, I think we have to mobilize a coalition of states, including some from outside the region, to fight these crazy and dangerous fellows. I would like to see more voices repeating this message. 

Greece´s way to hell

The end is close, preach those Christian fanatics that come to our doors, the Bible in their hands and the announcement of doom in their mouths. They are just in a mission to try to save us.

I thought of them today as I read the news about Greece. The end is close, the players seem to be saying. In this case, we know what they mean. But opposite of the preachers ‘approach, in the case of Greece many seem to be just waiting for it to happen. It is a bit as if different sides to this fate of gloom and doom would be relieved the day it happens.

The only problem is that once you reach the other side, hell can indeed be very bad. 

On Brazil again

Returning to theme of yesterday – Brazil – I should add that in addition to the corruption issue, that is undermining the credibility of some political circles, there is a serious problem of deep social disparities.

Many Brazilians live a very tough live and their children have few chances of getting out of the social swamp because they are not proper schooled. Education for the very poor is still a major challenge. The ruling Workers ‘Party has helped the poor, but the policy of money grants is not sustainable.

Then, on the other side of the class ladder we find people that enjoy all pleasures of life and can afford a standard of living that is comparable to the best in the world.

It is the middle class that is being squeezed out. The cost of decent housing and other expenditures have increased dramatically during the last few years. Some costs are far higher than in Europe. 

Therefore, it is no surprise to see that the main activism against President Dilma comes from people belonging to the urban middle classes. She is actually losing ground fast within this social group. 

Corruption in Brazil´s leading circles

I had a long conference call with a Brazilian friend who lives in Rio de Janeiro. And I could realise how much the Petrobras corruption scandal is eroding the foundations of President Dilma Rousseff´s power. It is also exposing her natural tendency to micromanage everything that counts, instead of letting the institutions and the procedures do their work. She is in serious need of sound advice. But is she able to listen?

A bit of fresh air

This evening in Stavanger people are just sitting outside by the fjord and enjoying a few drinks and some food. It is not a big crowd, but it is interesting to see them enjoying the cold but relatively dry weather. Like in any café terrace in warmer places.  Pleasure in life is sometimes made of just some fresh air and a relaxed approach to the one´s destiny. 

Ukraine: the diplomatic front should be supported

The joint diplomatic initiative taken by François Hollande and Angela Merkel, who decided to fly to Kiev today and then to Moscow, should be supported. It is true that it gives us a measure of the seriousness of the current situation in Eastern Ukraine. But it is the best response to a fast deteriorating conflict. It also comes at a time when Vladimir Putin seems to be ready to talk. The sides might be far apart, no doubt. But negotiations never take place when things are going well. They happen when the costs of further fighting become too high. And also when the possibility of an uncontrolled escalation is around the corner. We have both at present. Therefore, let´s give diplomacy a chance. And the first step has to be an agreement on a ceasefire. Both sides should accept the status quo and freeze the war. Then, negotiations could start and take the time they might require to achieve a durable settlement.

Let´s hope. Let´s also be clear that the continuation of the existing offensive cannot be accepted and must stop. 

Looking for a humanitarian lady

At the UN headquarters there is a bit of a fight about the position of Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, which is officially known as Emergency Relief Coordinator. The British Baroness Amos, who has led the humanitarian department of the UN since late 2010, has decided to leave the position, for reasons better known to herself. She announced her departure in November of last year. Since then, Prime Minister Cameron has tried to impose one of his party friends as the nominee, but the Secretary-General has found the candidate too weak and blatantly unqualified for the job. Cameron was actually advised to suggest other names. But the impasse goes on. And the other British names that have been mentioned in some corridors are not much better than Cameron´s friend.

My guess is that Ban wants to appoint a woman. Maybe Cameron or another Prime Minister elsewhere will come up with the right lady. 

Time to act

It´s time to move faster and decisively in order to provide meaningful military assistance to Ukraine. Without it the government will not be able to stop the new offensive the rebels have undertaken. The success of such an offensive will have high political costs, including the perception in Moscow that it pays to be bold and act elsewhere as they have done in Eastern Ukraine. 

Minsk´s impasse

The new round of talks in Minsk – just one short day around the table – ended without any type of progress. It´s no surprise. The situation on the ground in Ukraine is deteriorating fast. The rebels and their backers are on the offensive and fully convinced they have the initiative. They can afford to say no to the Minsk pretence.

OSCE and my friend Heidi Tagliavini, the peace facilitator, have shown a lot of patience. I admire them. They should continue their efforts. Even if they are just useful to let everyone see that the rebellion is not in a mood to talk about peace. The rebels know they can count on the support of their powerful godfather.