The approaches towards the future of European defence

When it comes to European defence, it is not either the US or Turkey that count. It is basically how the issue is seen by the French, the Germans and the Poles. The British, with the Brexit imbroglio, have somehow stepped aside. Each one of these three nations lead a different school of thought on the matter. And, in many ways, the Poles are more influential than what many outside analysts think. On top of that, they tend to voice positions that are not too far from the feelings we find within the US side. In this context, the strategy must follow a gradual approach, step by step, starting with less controversial areas. And it has to consider what should be the future of NATO in the Europe of tomorrow.

Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker

Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker completed today their mandates as leaders of the EU. I think it is fair to say that both have committed themselves deeply to their jobs. Donald Tusk as head of the Council had to manage and balance the views of his peers, the Heads of State and Government of the EU Member States. Not an easy job. One of his headaches came from his own country, Poland. Jean-Claude Juncker had to lead the machinery and achieve results, notwithstanding the fact that, at the same time, he was dealing with a major distraction, the Brexit negotiations.

As they move on, I think one should say thank you for the work they have done as well as for the enormous patience they have displayed. And we should know that patience and perseverance are two of the key features a leader should possess. Particularly a leader that deals with 28 national masters.

The new EU Commission

The new European Commission top team, led by Ursula von der Leyen, has been approved by the Members of the European Parliament. They are now ready to start their five-year mandate. I can only hope they will be able to respond to the challenges ahead and remain credible.

The challenges are many. For me, the most important one concerns the unity of Europe. This is an area that is under attack, both from inside and from some of our neighbours, allies or foes. Therefore, it must be protected and strengthened. The Commission must keep reminding all of us of our common destiny as Europeans. It’s about unity within diversity, as a German person is certainly different, in many aspects, from a Portuguese. But both and all share the same fundamental values of human rights, fairness and dignity. All want to see the European streets kept safe, the rural areas protected, the equality between boys and girls promoted, and ensure that the older citizens feel tranquil and enjoy a dignified end of life. It’s also about the beef, of course. By promoting the European unity, the Commission is supporting a balanced economic growth and job security. In a context of sustainability, which means a lot on terms of addressing the urgency of the climate crisis.

I wish the new team well.

So much has changed

We are about to close the second decade of the XXI Century. As we look back, the last 10 years have been a time of major transformation and change. The year 2010 seems to be far back and to belong to another era. Politics have changed, and not for the better. Lies and polarisation are new key features. The economy has also gone through major transformations. Artificial Intelligence, computerisation are the new dimensions. But they are not alone. The economic changes have also brought new levels of precariousness and powerlessness, job insecurity and a frustration. And then, there is a new understanding of the climate crisis. It is unfortunately accompanied by actions that are too small to effectively respond to the issues we face.

In many ways, I think we end the decade with a stronger feeling hopelessness and deep distrust for those who are in charge. We are also more contradictory in our own way of looking at things. We know but we do not want to change what we got used to. We just hope others will do it.

That goes along with a serious leadership crisis. The political and thought leaders are no longer those who are in power. They are among the little people, the ordinary citizens and, in many ways, among the very young. There again, there is a serious gap between political authority and moral authority. That’s one the challenges we have to address we get into the next decade.

The initial comments about the Hong Kong elections

Three points about today’s local elections in Hong Kong. One, it is about the very impressive voter turnout. People participated in the election in very large numbers. The turnout is 71.2 per cent of the registered voters. Much higher than the one in 2015, which reached 47 per cent. Two, it is about the tranquillity of the day. There was no unrest, no confusion either during the vote or in the evening, as the papers were counted, and the first results announced. Three, initial results show that the pro-democracy candidates are gaining most of the seats. That will be a major blow to the Hong Kong Chief Minister. But, above all, to the Communist leaders in Beijing.

Again, the events as they happen in Hong Kong raise major issues about what next in China.

The question of trust

If there is a thing I took away from the political debate the BBC organised last evening, it is the question of trust. Basically, the programme was about placing the leaders of the four main British parties before an assembly of citizens. We were told these people represented a good sample of the diversity of opinions one can find in the British society. I don’t know the criteria the BBC followed to select them. However, I have no special reason to doubt the organisers’ word and good judgement.

Each leader was given 30 minutes to listen and reply to questions coming from the audience. That’s time enough to win an assembly of voters. It can also become an eternity if one is not able to connect with them and be convincing.

In my opinion, and excluding the special case of the leader of the Scottish National Party – Nicola Sturgeon has a very specific political agenda, very focused on getting a new vote on Scotland’s quest for independence from the UK – the other three leaders could realise they are not trusted by large segments of the population. Their pledges do not sound as sincere.  They can count, of course, on their faithful followers. But they can’t widen the pool.

My conclusion was that they should ask themselves why it is they are not perceived by a good number of the voters as credible. If I were in their shoes, that would be the question I would try to answer now, before moving on with the campaign.

A global wave of urban revolt

It cannot escape one’s attention that currently there are several cases of urban revolt taking place in a good number of countries. Each one of these mass movements have their own specific causes. But I think there are a few common features. They are related to the stress of leaving in megacities with poor infrastructure and high cost of living, housing challenges, youth unemployment, job insecurity, and the disparity of living standards one can find in every big city. Inequality and a strong feeling of social injustice combined with scot-free corruption by the elites lead to mass demonstrations, including the destruction of symbols of power.

Hong Kong: the politics of escalation

The Hong Kong political crisis calls for a deep analysis. It raises many questions. What is happening in the city for several months now is unique and a major challenge to President Xi Jinping’s authority. The population in Mainland China is not properly informed about the events. But I am told that the younger professionals in key Chinese cities are particularly interested in what is taking place in Hong Kong. To get a better picture, they are looking for alternative sources of information. And they are able to get to them, notwithstanding the extreme control the authorities try to impose on access to information. A new narrative, different from the official one, is now circulating among the younger segments of society, those with higher levels of education. It is yet too early to assess how significant that can be. But what it is clear is that in Mainland China some people are now getting a strong message coming from the demonstrations in Hong Kong. That is, there are Chinese people that do not want to live under the dictatorship imposed by the Communist leaders. They are ready to fight for their freedom. The only dimension that is tarnishing the message is the violence that is also taking place. And the Communist leaders know that they can take advantage of such violence. But playing with violence is not a good political bet.

Our present-day Don Quixote's

The world is becoming like a huge maze. There are too many paths, too many dramatic events. It is much easier to get lost at present. And many people do. They do not try to understand the logic design of the maze. They just keep moving around, they take their option as the solution. What an easy way to get confused and get mentally prepared to fight the windmills that Don Quixote could not defeat. The only difference is that the real Don Quixote had a pure and generous heart. That’s not longer the case with the politicians that play the same role today.

New forms of democracy

Some theoreticians keep saying, as they love to repeat one another, that “we live in a post-democratic world”. I disagree. Democracy is alive in many parts of our planet. The only real point is that the way it is expressed and exercised is changing fast. We live in a globalised world. National borders have lost their meaning when the issues are of a greater import. Therefore, this is a time when decisions taken within national borders must be harmonised with decisions taken by others. It is not a loss of national sovereignty or a way of undermining the democratic institutions in each country. It is simply because many issues do require a transnational response. And that’s why it is important to safeguard the authority of the multilateral organisations. Part of the democratic practise means then to be able to reach consensus.

9 November is a European date

Besides the German leaders, the Presidents of Slovakia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary participated in the ceremony in Berlin, marking the 30^th anniversary of the fall of the Wall. I am very pleased they did. The date is an important one for freedom and democracy in their part of Europe. But it is also a key one for the rest of us, in the EU. It is about freedom, the end of a totalitarian approach to governance, the realisation that the communist utopia, as promoted by the Soviets and their allies, was nothing else but a tragic instrument to keep power in the hands of minority political extremists. It is above all a key date for Europe and its modern history. As such, it is most surprising not to see at today’s ceremony some politicians such as Emmanuel Macron, Charles Michel, the incoming EU Council President, and many others from the Western side of Europe. I think they made a mistake.

A new deal in international affairs

It would be unfair to live in the centre of the European Union and have a pessimistic view about the future of mankind. But it would also be unreasonable not to accept that for many, in many parts of the world, daily life is a gigantic challenge, a crushing trial. The point is to find a balance between our prosperity and the dramas many have to go through. In my opinion, the first step towards such balance is the one that recognises that walls and barriers will not keep their problems away from us. What keeps our safety and way of life is a value-based approach towards international cooperation and mutual respect. That should be the message the leaders should take as their key policy line.

No to Erdogan's resettlement plan

President Erdogan of Turkey wants to repatriate a large number of Syrian refugees. His plan is to create several resettlement camps on the Syrian side of the border, in the “safe zone” his troops control, between the towns of Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ain.

He is putting a lot of pressure on the UN Secretary-General António Guterres. The President wants the Secretary-General to bless the plan and convene a donor meeting to raise money for its implementation. Erdogan met Guterres yesterday and the meeting was vintage Erdogan: either the UN does it, or I will.

Things do not work like that when it comes to repatriation of refugees and the role of the UN. The Secretary-General must make it clear. Repatriation must take place on a voluntary basis, with strong security guarantees, and it cannot disturb the very fragile ethnic balances that define Northern Syria. It is also true that traditional donors are not ready to finance any plan imposed by force. But that is not the key issue. The point is that people must be willing to go back. I am sure that point is not met today.