In politics, you better be your own man (or woman)

During my work with President Francois Bozizé of the Central African Republic (CAR) – from 2008 to 2010 – I always felt that he was too inclined to indiscriminately follow Idriss Déby’s positions.  For me, and I said it several times, it was not good politics to be so much dependent on the Chadian President.

 First, Chad and CAR are too very different socio-political realities. Even Southern Chad, that at the surface could be considered similar to CAR, is distinct and cannot be easily compared with the reality south of the border.

Second, Déby is a man from the Sahel and his views about Central Africa are not necessarily the most appropriate ones.

Third, the support Bozizé was looking for in N’Djamena had a negative impact on CAR’s domestic politics: leveraged by Chad, Bozizé did not see the critical relevance and urgency of moving faster on the issues of national reconciliation and power-sharing.

But Bozizé had a different view.

Now, things have changed. He has been ousted from power. And from his temporary refuge in Cameroon, today Bozizé accused the President of Chad of being behind the rebels that chased him from the presidency and the country.

As they say, quite often in politics the lessons are learned when it is already too late. 

France's frustations

The new French leaders feel very frustrated. This is now the talk in town, within the top power circles of Europe.

There are two main reasons for such frustration. One, it has to do with the very low approval ratings President François Hollande is getting when the voters are polled. He is now just over 30%. This is a very weak satisfaction level for a president that is still very much at the beginning of his mandate. Hollande and his advisors do not understand why the French public opinion is not responding more favourably. They are genuine when they say they do not understand the voters ‘reaction. Last week’s television interview of the President had no impact on the ratings. That has been an extremely discouraging reality check for Hollande and his people.

The other reason is related to the role of France within the EU. Hollande is very distressed he has not been able to fill the European shoes left by his predecessor. He knows Germany and other think-alike countries, such as Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands pay no attention to his views. The President of France has been reduced, in many ways, to the level of second line leaders, such as Spain or Poland. And he is not happy. But he has no idea how to turn this situation around.

I am one of those who think this state of affairs is pretty dangerous for Europe. France’s frustration will end up by bursting out. And the consequences might seriously contribute to further split and fragment the EU. 

Fools and long weekends

On April Fool’s Day you might not believe me but it was a sunny day in Brussels. Cold but sunny!

You should also trust me if I tell you that this evening most of the residential areas of the city are as deserted as in a holiday. Tomorrow is a working day but people seem to be extending the Easter weekend…

Europe loves long weekends…

Who told you we have to work harder to get over the crisis? 

Deterrence and diplomacy

Someone told me today that the kind of threats Kim Jong-un has made in the past few days could justify a preventive strike against the regime in Pyongyang. My response was very clear: I do not think so. It would be indeed a mistake to take any preemptive military action against North Korea at this stage. Active deterrence through a clear joint show of force in the region combined with clear-cut diplomatic initiatives by China and Russia, and the UN Security Council as a whole, should be enough to send an unequivocal message to the young man. 

Congratulations to all Kenyans

Kenya’s presidential results have now been confirmed. And one should note the maturity shown this time by the political elite, particularly by Raila Odinga, who challenged the results through the courts and has now accepted the final verdict. This is a sea change compared with the tragic events that occurred after the last elections in 2007. It is another demonstration that many countries in Africa are moving in the right direction. 

Please tell Kim Jong-un the truth

Kim Jong-un is a young man. When he took over as leader of North Korea he had an opportunity to make history. He could have initiated a process that would bring the North and the South together. As a young fellow, with a long political future in front of him, this would have been the smart approach, as there is no other way out of the permanent crisis and poverty his country experiences.

He seems now to have missed the boat. For whatever reasons –lack of political sense of the realities, poor strategic advice, pressure from the regime elites, particularly from the military –he has opted for a very serious escalation of the war rhetoric. Some analysts claim this is the usual bluff, a recurrent feature in the Pyongyang politics. I am afraid it is more than that. He and his generals might have managed to be fooled by their own bombastic nonsense. They might have fallen victims of their own delusion.

The fact of the matter is that at present we have a very dangerous situation developing in the Korean Peninsula. If by any chance, Kim decides to launch any attack –in the understanding that he has no means to reach US territory –he and his regime could end up by paying a very high price for the folly.

I hope someone is getting ready to tell Kim Jong-un the truth.  Urgently. 

The African Ellipse of Instability

I was asked by the media a number of questions about the recent developments in the Central African Republic (CAR). I have advised them to read the research paper I published last year, under the sponsorship of NUPI – the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs –about the instability in that region of Africa. I mentioned, in particular, the “ellipse of instability”, an expression I coined to describe the security risks that exist in a vast no-man’s land along the borders of Chad, Sudan, CAR, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The paper is available at the following link:

http://english.nupi.no/content/download/308614/1068211/version/1/file/NUPI+Report-SIP-7-Angelo-McGuinness.pdf

I suggest the reader to have a look at it.

EU silence

The EU top leaders have now adopted silence as public information technique. They let the sidekicks take the micro and express what they do not dare to say. 

South African casualties in the Central African Republic

In an exchange with a South African analyst, I mentioned that I was very sad and very surprised by the fact that the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) had lost 13 men out of 200 in the recent clashes with the Séléka rebels in the Central African Republic (CAR). That’s an awful lot of casualties. In particular, if one considers that on the other side, on the insurgent side, we had a ragtag bunch of armed men, poorly equipped, chaotically led and badly prepared to fight. I suggested that this SANDF loss needs to be properly reviewed by the authorities in Pretoria and a number of hard lessons extracted. 

The finance moralist is a failed politician

Jeroen Dijsselbloem might not know where Bangui is located. Most likely, he had also no idea up to recently where Nicosia is. But like the Séléka rebels in the Central African Republic, he managed today to create chaos and uncertainty. His interview with Reuters and the Financial Times shows that he has the same level of political tact and experience as the leaders of Séléka. And he managed to do what the CAR rebels are very good at: to divide what should be united. They split the country along ethnic lines, a tradition in that part of the world. Djisselbloem split Europe, separating the good people of the parsimonious North from the prodigal boys from the South. And undermining bank recovery in the lands of such bad boys.

Then, later in the day, maybe after a serious caning by Angela, the man said that his words about the Cyprus programme being a template for future financial crisis were not meant to mean what they indeed mean, as each country situation is a special case.

He is the one that could be considered a special case.

Maybe the UN – at a time when its presence in Bangui is being seriously challenged –should consider sending him as an envoy to CAR. The country is at least a safe place for the markets as there is no Reuters or Financial Times correspondent around.