Diversions and maneuvers

Manipulation of public opinion is one the oldest tactics in the bag of tricks of secret services, isn't it? 

Turkey and the EU

Leaders in the European Union look with perplexity at the sentences passed on top Turkish military officers and other civilian personalities, all of them accused of attempted coup d’état. But, as it has become the practice, they have decided to remain silent. It is however a silence that will weight a lot when the matter of Turkey’s accession to the EU will be on the table again. 

Post-elections period in Zimbabwe

It would be wise for the EU to accept the assessment made by the African Union regarding the Zimbabwe elections of 31 July. That assessment can also be combined with the findings of the Zimbabwean Electoral Support Network, a consortium of NGOs that deployed 7,000 observers throughout the country. We have then a more balanced opinion. EU can then state that it follows that balance, based on the judgement made by credible Africans, and express its willingness to constructively engage with the new government in Harare. Constructive engagement with anyone that matters is better than negative criticism. 

Iran's new President

Today Hassan Rouhani has replaced Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president of Iran. Like many within the country, I think the key players in the international community should see the new leader as an opportunity for constructive re-engagement with Iran. The approach to be followed has to be gradual, of course, and implemented by the Six-Party powers in a very well co-ordinated manner.

Rouhani’s two main concerns are clear to me: to put a stop to the serious economic decline Ahmadinejad’s policies have generated; and to improve the country’s relations with the key international players.

 If we in the West are aware of these imperatives he is confronted with and play along, we might achieve some degree of success.

It is in our interest to see a turnaround in the economy of Iran and have a leadership in Tehran that understands that international cooperation is the best option for them and for the region. 

Berlusconi

Italy’s governing coalition has become very shaky. Its future is unclear. Silvio Berlusconi will make things very difficult in the next few days. He thinks he needs to create a major national crisis. That’s the way the man behaves and this time is pretty serious for his personal survival and place in history. He will not forgive. He will try every trick to create a mess as a way of cleaning his reputation. And he is a man that will not hesitate to bring the country down if he himself is going down.

Assad, the master of the cemetery

Syria has very much disappeared from the radar screen of international affairs. The “July Conference” is like July itself: no more! The EU and the US seem to have concluded that Assad is not moving out of power. In addition, the Syrian opposition they could work with is more divided than ever. Turkey, on the other hand, after its own domestic social unrest, has cooled down its enthusiasm to play a bigger role in the neighbourhood. And Qatar and Saudi Arabia keep moving apart, with divergent interests at play.

Assad is therefore keeping the moment and the initiative. He knows that time and the mood in the international community are favourable to his aims. He might be ruling the ruins of a country, but he will be in power. For a tyrant, this is the best insurance he can get. It is better to be in charge of a cemetery than to be in the uncertainty of exile. 

EU recovery winds

In the EU, this month of July ends with a more optimistic note. At least, that’s what some analysts would like us to believe. They are now saying they see some signs that the worst of the economic crisis is past. That we might return to positive growth rates during the second half of the year.

If we look at the recovery in Ireland, we might come to the same conclusion. I am certainly very encouraged by the level of international investment the country is able to attract, which is a clear indicator that confidence is back and the overall macro-economic framework is getting the right shape. 

But one swallow doesn't make a summer. 

We can even forget Greece and its chronic development challenges. We cannot however be blind to the economic situations in Italy and Spain. These countries are not out of the woods. And they combine economic depression with political fragility. This is the worst combination we can have as one of the keys that opens the door of recovery is a strong government with a clear popular mandate and indisputable political legitimacy.

Repeating ourselves about Zimbabwe

Today I have to go back to the Zimbabwe issue.

After serving in the country for four years, I left Harare at the end of 2004. Now, almost nine years later, and on the eve of the presidential elections, I listen to the political discourse and see that the themes and the worries are exactly the same. 

But not only on the Mugabe and Tsvangirai camps.

SADC, the association of Southern African States, the EU and others in the international community keep saying today what they were already telling us nine or more years ago: this time, we need proper elections, this time we will not accept fraud, this time it has to be different.

And we can only respond what we have said many times in the past: poor Zimbabwe!

Elections Zimbabwean style

On 31 July Zimbabweans will be offered a new chance of being robbed. Indeed, on that day presidential elections will take place. And the Electoral Commission, appointed by good old Robert and loyal to the regime interests, will do again what they have done in 2002, 2005 and 2008: make sure that the Mugabe camp steals the elections. The Electoral Commissioners are very expert at that job. I have observed and also implemented many elections in Africa and elsewhere. I have never seen an institutional machinery so smart as the one in Zimbabwe that can organise chaos, put in place rules and legal obstacles, and create all conditions for the old man to be “elected” in a way that looks good enough.

I would love to be wrong this time. 

Summer time

As we come closer to early August, leaders in my part of the world are more concerned by the summer break than by anything else. Brussels is empty at this time of the year and the same happens in other EU capitals. Even at the UN in New York, it is time for slow motion. I remember well trying to sort out things in August and getting only third and fourth line staffs on the other side of the UN headquarters table.

But do crises take a break?