Tuesday, 21 January 2014

We need a new approach to EU external military deployments

The decision to deploy an EU brigade to Bangui –EUFOR RCA – has now been taken. The level of ambition and the duration of this mission are very limited, at best 6 months, and just to protect the international airport.

But that´s not my point today.

The decision has shown once more that the EU has to adopt a different model to finance this type of missions. They cannot be financed by the participating countries. Some countries would be ready to supply the soldiers and the logistical military support but they can´t afford the costs. Portugal is just one those countries. Lisbon would be willing to deploy but the defence budget for 2014 cannot pay for it. This means the Portuguese will stay away.

These missions should be funded from a common EU budget. Each member state should contribute to the annual replenishment of that fund in accordance with their GDP per capita. This is the only way to approach in more proactive way the external peace keeping operations of the EU. If it is not adopted, we will continue to see a contradiction between the decision to assist counties in crisis and the effective deployment of a credible force. The foreign ministers will taken the decision but the soldiers will not reach the ground on time and in sufficient numbers.

 And Germany, among others, will never be part of any effort of this type. Not even by contributing a few euros. 

Monday, 20 January 2014

Iran and Syria

Throughout the day there was a lot of controversy about Iran´s participation in the Geneva II talks on Syria, scheduled for Wednesday. The key Western powers looked at Secretary-general Ban´s decision to invite Tehran as a serious blunder. And he got quite a number of calls to change his mind, which he did. The invitation was withdrawn under the pretext that Tehran had not endorsed the transitional framework that came out of Geneva I.

Beyond this tangle, the point the SG was trying to make is very simple and clear. Iran has to be part of the solution. The Syrian crisis has many hands in it. One of them is at the end of the long arm that connects Assad with the Iranian leaders. If the other hands are in the kitchen, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia, there is no reason to bar Iran. A negotiation is not just to be held between friends. It should bring together adversaries and enemies. 

Sunday, 19 January 2014

Davos 2014

Davos is back this week. The World Economic Forum will discuss, during a few days, how to change to the planet. Some big names from the business will meet again lesser names from the politics. The wheels of networking will get their required dose of grease.

But the meeting itself has lost some of the shine of the past. There are now too many competing initiatives.

In the end, the great and the powerful will go back to their usual occupations. And the world might not have noticed that on the top of a Swiss mountain some beautiful people have spent a few nice days debating how to change it.

The world remains, as we can see, a very ungrateful place.



Saturday, 18 January 2014

Karzai is making it impossible

Yesterday’s suicide attack against a well-known Kabul restaurant, which killed so many people and also destroyed the little flame of normalcy that the establishment symbolised, reminds all of us that President Karzai has yet to move on the security cooperation agreement with the US.

That agreement is the indispensable framework for any future assistance to Afghanistan after the departure of ISAF, at the end of this year. It was approved by the Loya Jirga (great assembly of elders and local traditional chiefs) in November 2013. Hamid Karzai could have signed it soon after. He has not done it and the delay is making it almost impossible to ensure a proper transition to the period post-ISAF. This will have a major impact on the continuation of key development projects. International staff will be drastically reduced if the security conditions are not properly guaranteed.

What are Karzai´s motives?  

Friday, 17 January 2014

Kiir should take a bold political initiative

Salva Kiir, the President of South Sudan, has managed to collect the support of the regional leaders. But the crisis is deepening. The ceasefire discussions in Addis Ababa are not making any visible progress. The humanitarian situation is worsening.

In this deteriorating context,  the international community should tell President Kiir that the support he is getting from the region should encourage him to seek a political solution. Because of the backing he is receiving from his neighbours he is more than anybody else in a stronger position when it comes to taking the political initiative. He should understand that the region and the international community can only see an all-inclusive political agreement as the way forward for sustainable peace and nation building in South Sudan. Anything else, including the military option, is just a recipe for further collapse and human misery. 

Thursday, 16 January 2014

The hammer and the security challenges in CAR

My column of today in the Portuguese general affairs weekly magazine Visão is about the deployment of foreign troops in the Central African Republic (CAR). My point is basically that the international community is sending soldiers there in very limited numbers and then asking them to play law and order roles in the midst of a widespread civilian chaos. Not only the deployed military are insufficient in numbers for securing such a vast country, they are also called to do tasks that police and gendarmerie are best suited to implement. This is a major source of frustration for the soldiers. And they see no end to it, as there is no plan to bring formed police units from outside the country, no international police advisors, and no trainers to help the CAR authorities to re-establish their own security institutions. Again, the international community is making use of a hammer when the tools required are quite different. 

Wednesday, 15 January 2014

Youth employment

There is some optimism in the EU when it comes to the 2014 economics forecast. The macro indicators seem to be encouraging, including for countries such as Spain and Portugal. But the key issue continues to be about job creation. And, frankly, there is again very little debate about this matter. The very few references made here and there are about the high costs of labour. But that´s the wrong approach to the question. The point is a different one: how well are we preparing our youth for tomorrow´s economic challenges?  It is time to initiate the discussion on this. 

Tuesday, 14 January 2014

UNPOL

I just published today in Belgium the following text in French about the UN Police in peacekeeping operations:

LES OFFICIERS DE POLICE DES NATIONS UNIES (UNPOL), DE PLUS EN PLUS DEMANDES
Victor Angelo *

Quand on entend parler des « bérets bleus » de l´ONU, on pense tout de suite aux contingents militaires que l´on trouve déployés dans plusieurs pays. En effet, pour le citoyen européen l´image du maintien de la paix est avant tout associé à des soldats en patrouille dans des véhicules marqués avec les lettres UN. Je dirais que même nos politiciens ont tendance à réduire le maintien de la paix à ce cliché. Or, il y a une autre catégorie de personnel qui s´habille aussi en uniforme et porte le béret bleu : les officiers de Police des Nations Unies, connus actuellement sous la désignation d´UNPOL.

Il est vrai qu´il y a beaucoup plus de militaires dans l´ensemble des opérations de paix qui sont actuellement sur le terrain: on compte au sein des 16 missions en cours un peu plus de 83 000 soldats en comparaison avec 13 000 policiers. Les états membres de l´ONU trouvent plus facilement des contingents militaires « disponibles pour déploiement » que des agents de police.

Cependant, on a connu ces dernières années une progression assez significative du nombre de policiers des Nations Unies. La croissance de la demande en conseillers et observateurs de police et en unités formées de policiers (groupements du type « gendarmerie ») s´explique par l´arrivée d´une nouvelle génération de mandats des missions de paix de l´ONU et aussi par des changements au niveau des types de menaces sécuritaires.

Depuis quelques années,  le Conseil de Sécurité a décidé de mettre davantage l´accent sur des questions institutionnelles et de reconstruction de l´administration de l´Ã‰tat. Par la suite, nous avons assisté à l´approbation de mandats qui sont inspirés par la préoccupation de résoudre les causes profondes d´instabilité dans les pays qui ont vécu des crises nationales profondes. Cela comprend des réformes du secteur de la justice et de la sécurité des citoyens. Et dans ce contexte, l´expertise que les conseillers de police des Nations Unies peuvent apporter est très appréciée. Ainsi, il y a de plus en plus d´histoires de succès de réforme des forces nationales de police qui sont directement liées au travail de l´UNPOL.

Il a fallu aussi répondre aux changements de circonstances. Les défis sécuritaires auxquels il faut faire face aujourd´hui exigent souvent une réponse qu´on trouve dans le rayon des compétences des services de police. Répondre à ces menaces avec des forces militaires s´est avéré – même s´il a fallu du temps pour le comprendre et si pour certains cela n´est pas encore tout à fait évident – trop cher et, avant tout, peu efficace. Le banditisme violent, les organisations criminelles transnationales, les réseaux terroristes, le renforcement de la sécurité interne, le maintien de l´ordre public face à des manifestations de masse à tendance radicale, le renseignement, enfin, toutes ces dimensions requièrent le renforcement des capacités nationales de police. Les conseils dispensés par les policiers en béret bleu sont essentiels pour remettre sur pied des capacités qui ont été souvent détruites suite aux conflits dans les pays en crise. À cela s´ajoutent les préoccupations relatives à la protection des populations civiles vulnérables, en particulier les femmes et les enfants, des déplacés internes et des réfugiés. De plus en plus, la protection de ces populations demande une intervention coordonnée entre les militaires et les policiers et un rééquilibrage des rôles joués par les uns et les autres.

La Division de Police des Nations Unies, qui fait partie du Département des Opérations du Maintien de la Paix, et qui dirige le travail des UNPOLs sur le terrain, s´est beaucoup renforcée depuis quelques années, pour répondre aux nouvelles tâches. Elle est actuellement, à mon avis, parmi les services les plus performants de l´ONU. Mais il y a encore du pain sur la planche.  Un des objectifs est d´augmenter le pourcentage de femmes au service des missions UNPOL. Actuellement, le nombre d´agents féminins ne dépasse guère les 10%. L´intention est d´arriver dans les prochaines années à 20%. Entretemps, il faut noter que pour la première fois un détachement UNPOL –celui au Darfour dans le cadre de l´UNAMID, qui est composé de 5 000 agents de Police des Nations Unies – est commandé par une femme.

 Outre le défi du gendre, il faudra augmenter la participation des pays développés dans les activités UNPOL. Le commandant général d´UNPOL, qu´on désigne comme « UN Police Adviser »,  est un officier venu de la police allemande. Mais la contribution des états européens reste étonnamment faible. L´Allemagne, le pays d´origine du Police Adviser, n´a que 15 officiers détachés dans toutes les missions des Nations Unies. La France est le plus grand contributeur parmi les états membres de l´UE, ce qui n´est pas surprenant en tenant compte des missions de l´ONU en Côte d´Ivoire et au Mali. L´apport français reste modeste malgré tout: 52 policiers et gendarmes. En tout cas, c´est plus que les Pays-Bas (21), la Suède (31) et surtout que la Belgique qui, selon les données disponibles, n´a qu’un seul policier en détachement aux Nations Unies. Au fait, même la « neutre » Suisse fait mieux : 6. Cela devrait nous interpeller.    


*Ancien Représentant spécial du Secrétaire-général de l´ONU (DPKO) ; 32 ans de service aux Nations Unies. 

Monday, 13 January 2014

Peace building questions

I have been asked to produce off-the-cuff a list of key peace building concerns. This is what a put together:

1.   Consolidating peace: Is there a set of indicators that show the foundations of sustainable peace have been built?
2.   How to link local peace building initiatives with national policies?
3.   What makes a conflict a forgotten one?
4.   Reviewing best electoral practices that have contributed to peace consolidation and nation building.
5.   The reform of the National Police: a case study that can be considered best practice.
6.   Women´s contribution to peace building: telling the story.
7.   Peace and reconciliation: lessons learned from country A or B.
8.   Business and peace: what to expect from national business associations.
9.   Fighting corruption: review of best practices.
10.  Strengthening the judiciary: what are constraints in a post-conflict situation?
11.  Nation building in a multi-ethnic context: which lessons have we learned?
12.  What role should we expect from regional leaders in resolving conflict in a neighbouring country?

Some of these questions have been answered to. The issue is to share with the readers what I thought should be considered priority questions on peace building at the present stage. 

Sunday, 12 January 2014

The Central African Republic: the coming days can change the situation.

I spent a good deal of the day looking at the new developments in the Central Africa Republic. And I came to the conclusion that the departure from power of Michel Djotodia, the Interim President that rode the March rebellion and subsequently lost control of its own allied rebel forces, the Seleka combatants, opens a window of opportunity for security and reconciliation. The sooner the new Interim President is chosen by the assembly of representatives the better.

Then, the partners of the country should provide enough resources for him to be able to rebuild the national security forces and bring law and order back. This is where the priority should lie.