One veto

The UN Security Council is certainly in need of deep reform to reflect today´s world. But, for the time being, it is the ultimate platform where matters of peace and security can be decided. It is therefore of critical importance, even when decisions are not taken because of one or more vetoes. For instance, when all the members of the Council vote for a resolution and one of the five permanent sitters casts a negative vote, this veto has a tremendous political meaning. Particularly if the resolution was trying to address an issue of directly related to the international behaviour of the vetoing country. By saying no that country is just showing to be on the wrong side of the international community´s wisdom. 

Interdependence and new approaches to conflict resolution

During the last two or three days, there have been gigantic amounts of financial resources that have been transferred between countries as well as many selling operations in the stock markets. Financial assets owned by Russian entities have been moved out of American and European banks and transferred to what they consider to be safer havens. In addition, EU banks and funds have taken way from Russia many of their financial investments. There is a move away from the Russian currency, the rouble.

All this is precautionary. But it sends a very strong message, including to Vladimir Putin, that today´s economic and financial interdependence does require a different approach to conflict between major states. Diplomacy and compromise are more in line with today´s interests. 

Oil, economic recovery and key geopolitical areas of interest

The price of Brent Crude Oil has been relatively stable during the last 12 months. It has oscillated around US $105 and $108. During the last five days or so, it has even decreased slightly. I take this as an indicator that there is more serenity out there, among those who know what´s going on, than the events in Ukraine let us believe. This is certainly good news. We need calm waters out there. The economic recovery is still very precarious, particularly in the EU, and we can´t afford major disruptions. Oil remains an important factor in terms of the recovery and its price can have a critical impact on economic and social stability in Europe.

That´s why we have to pay more attention to the situation in Libya, Iraq, Nigeria, and also make sure that Iran plays ball as agreed and can be back in the oil market as an important supplier.

These are some of the countries that would call for more focus within the EU machinery. 

Ukraine and the new defence architecture in Europe

The EU game plan for Ukraine must match Russia´s will to cooperate. That has to be made very clear to the Kremlin. If Russia´s ambition goes beyond reasonable expectations and leads to the annexation of Crimea and other parts of Ukraine, the EU has to move beyond economic and budgetary assistance and have a comprehensive approach. It is true that the EU defence policy is too short. But its member states could help Ukraine to reach a stronger partnership with the existing defence mechanism that the West has in place.

  

That is the message that needs to be put across to the Kremlin. If things on their side go too far then they can expect Ukraine to become much more integrated in the Western defence architecture. In other words, if Russia changes the balance of power in Eastern Europe, then the West will have to find a new equilibrium that would certainly include the new Ukraine. 

Moving away from Russia may gain speed

President Putin believes he will be in a stronger position after the Crimean referendum on Sunday. He knows that the result will be favourable to those who advocate the integration of the Peninsula in the Russian Federation. This is not a very difficult guess as many of those who oppose it will be intimidated and will stay away of the polling stations. But he is wrong to believe this will strength his hand. This will give additional weight to all those in the West that keep saying we shouldn´t cooperate and trust the current Kremlin leadership. And these people will push for less dependency of Russia´s natural resources and markets. For less economic links as well. They will stress that alternatives do exist. And that will be a strong trend in the next few years.

  

Calm down on Ukraine, please!

The rhetoric on Ukraine remains too passionate. It is time to de-escalate the war of words as well. At the end of the day, the EU and Russia should unite to save the country from violent conflict. They should also co-sponsor a joint economic recovery programme that would bring the Ukrainian economy back to its feet. That should be the aim of the diplomatic initiatives in the next few days. 

Clinton´s Hitler

Madness is a key ingredient in the making of a political leader. The crazier one is the greater are the chances of getting in charge. We tend to let mad people go ahead with their folly and they end up in positions of power.

Today´s candidates to top the crazies and dreamers lists look like stranger idiots from the cold. These are dangerous times.

This is also a very regrettable trend.

Mrs Clinton felt she should joint this club. And to be sure she would be accepted in the inner circle, she came to the fore and compared Hitler with the Russian leader. A very unfortunate comparison. But it can certainly bring a good handful of votes. And in politics that´s much more important than being reasonable and moderate. 

Back and promoting negotiated solutions to shared crises

Back from a long voyage, I recall that one of the last posts I wrote before travelling has been about Russia and NATO. That post remains so current!

But I should add that we, on our side of the world, have a biased view of Russia as well. The Russians might believe in confrontation. But we have also shown we share the same believe. We might say that everybody wins if we cooperate and dialogue. However, we love to impose sanctions on others and still think that the ultimatum is a fine diplomatic instrument. Or the best diplomatic tool is to be able to understand the strategic interests of the adversary and initiate a dialogue taking such interests as the starting point for a negotiated solution.

Vacation notice

THIS BLOG WILL BE OFF DURING FEBRUARY.

IT WILL RESUME PUBLICATION ON 3 MARCH.

PLEASE COME BACK THEN:

Russia and NATO

Russia is still obsessed with NATO. The Russian leaders cannot understand that today´s NATO is very different from the Cold War organisation. In result, they still believe that NATO is a race against Russian interests. That´s the way they look at events in Ukraine, for instance. They see the West´s hand everywhere and always against Moscow´s strategic security interests.

From our side, we have the responsibility to help the Russians to overcome such a vision of today’s world. The dialogue and the partnership with Russia needs to be re-thought very carefully and with great attention to the concerns that feed the other side´s fears.