Time to keep visiting Ukraine

US Vice-President Biden´s visit sends a very strong message. Now, it is time for the EU leaders to start visiting Ukraine as well. 

The Ukrainian Geneva deal must move on

The Geneva agreement on the de-escalation of the crisis in Ukraine has been declared “moribund” too quickly. It is a bit like a deal that is signed but no one really wants to implement. Consequently, as soon as each side leaves the conference room it starts saying the deal is not working.

That´s not acceptable. In situations like the one in Ukraine, the implementation of conflict mitigation measures is a complex task. But it needs to be tried. And the first responsibility for its implementation belongs to those who signed it.

One should not be ingenuous. Beyond the agreement there are other moves taking place and they do not necessarily reflect what has been declared by the parties. That´s why the role of independent observers is crucial. In this case, it is essential to fully deploy the OSCE observers without any further delay. This is the most immediate response to the current situation.

After that, it is critical to trace the affiliations of the armed men. Many of them, in the Eastern part of the country, seem to be too well coordinated and too professional to be considered just self-defence forces, or civilians in arms. There is more to that. It has to be cleared soonest as well. 

Gulf of Guinea

Piracy is becoming a serious threat to the freedom of navigation in the Gulf of Guinea, in West Africa. The Nigerian Navy has arrested, during the first quarter of 2014, 37 vessels that were engaged in illegal activities at sea, most of them related to piracy attempts.

Now, a major naval exercise has been launched in that Gulf, at the initiative of the Nigerian government. 10 Nigerian ships, plus a task force of 14 foreign war vessels are now engaged in a joint exercise. The neighbours of Nigeria are part of the exercise as navies from Europe and the US. For a total of 21 nations. This figure shows the importance of the menace and the level of cooperation that has been established to address it.

It is rewarding to see Nigeria taking the lead. This is a case of good news coming from that key African State. 

Sierra Leone has a great potential

This afternoon I was in touch with a Sierra Leonean friend who lives in Freetown. He is a very enterprising young man. Thus, I asked him about the economic prospects. A got a disappointed fellow on the other side of the line. Basically, his point was that the politics are fine, there is peace but there is very little outside investment. West Africa remains a forgotten land, even after several years of political stability. And now, with the news about Ebola, the epidemic that is killing people in the neighbouring Guinea, the will to go and look for investment opportunities in the region is even lower. It´s a pity. These are potentially very rich countries. But they need capital and know how to move up.  

Boko Haram

At the beginning of the week, the terrorist group Boko Haram attacked a boarding school in Northern Nigeria and kidnapped over 130 student girls. They came with trucks and other vehicles and could move around and leave with the victims, all of this in a State that is supposed to be heavy patrolled by the Nigerian Army. Since then, notwithstanding the fact that the Army launched a major operation, the terrorists and the girls have not been found. This is again raising a number of very fundamental questions about the capacity of the national authorities to address the challenges Boko Haram poses. Something is very wrong in the way the Nigerian leaders are responding to Boko Haram.

The neighbouring countries, particularly Chad, and the friends of Nigeria are getting very worried. The terrorists are just becoming too big a menace. 

Diplomacy as part of a wider package

The agreement reached today in Geneva regarding Ukraine´s crisis is encouraging. We will see if it is implemented. But the fact that the parties, including Russia and the US, could agree on a way forward reminds us that we should keep talking, when there is a conflict, we should not cut off the bridges. That does not mean we should only try diplomacy. Actually diplomacy works better when it is combined with a full range of other measures, such as smart sanctions, military posture and deterrence, unity within the allies, and a clear political position. 

A few basic questions

On Russia and the West, there are a number of questions on the table. Do we really understand what the key Russian motivations are? Do they matter, as far as the Western interests are concerned? Why? If the answer is yes, what are then the West´s political response options that are realistically available? Which one is the preferred one? What are the chances of success? And what are the risks? Who are our allies? 

These are the key questions we must keep in mind and respond to. Action taken that is not based on clear answers to these interrogations should be called improvisation.

And this is no time for skin reactions. What is at stake is important. If the West is caught unprepared and without a clear strategy, then we are in for more, in the foreseeable future. 

Keep Ukraine together

In our corner of the world, the Ukrainian situation is the key issue. A very complex issue, indeed. And complex matters do require patience to be sorted out. They also require a clear understanding of the magnitude of the problem. At this stage, the information available does not allow me to fully grasp if we are facing just a few groups of activists or are we confronted with a mass movement. The impression I get is that this is still the work of rather small but pretty well coordinated –by whom, one should also ask – groups. That´s why it makes sense to suggest, as Kiev did today, that autonomy referenda could be organised in the regions. That seems to be a way forward.

It is also important to rapidly allow the government in Kiev to show some early wins. The West, if they take this matter as seriously as they say, has to help the new authorities to get some very visible results soonest.

It is also important to add that one the consequences of a potential partition of the country would be to have the Western part that would result from such a partition to join NATO soonest. That possibility should be used to encourage Russia to keep Ukraine together, even if as a federation of autonomous regions. It is either national unity or partition with NATO expanding beyond the Polish border. 

Afghan elections

The news coming from Afghanistan is good. After a relatively successful electoral day, the counting of votes is progressing well and the presidential candidates are taking it with the required composure.

It is too early, at this stage, to find out if there will a second round or not. But the top competitors seem to be prepared to accept the verdict of the polls. Let´s hope that will be the case. That will send a strong message to everyone, inside and outside the country, a message that things are more stable than many would have thought. 

Eastern Ukraine

The de-escalation in Eastern Ukraine is very urgent. And it should start by looking at the most recent events with a clear sense of proportions. The occupations of public buildings in a few Eastern cities are the work of very small groups of individuals. They might get a lot of media attention and create serious concerns in many chancelleries, but the truth is that there is no massive support, at least up to now, for that kind of actions. For the time being this is a law and order issue and not a popular sea change. It should be dealt with by the Kiev authorities with measured force. That´s the call one has to make at this time of greater risks.