Brighter days

A sunny day gives a lot of colour to one´s environment. 

Ebola is turning life in Sierra Leone into hell

I was just in contact with Sierra Leone. The stories I am told about the impact of Ebola on the country and the daily lives of the people are just horrendous. Everything is upside down, villages and small towns are just quarantined, and there is fear all over. Just imagine a country where to be sick with fever is quite common, because of malaria and other diseases related to the heat, the humidity, the mediocre quality of the water and poor sanitation. Now, every bout of fever is a reason for panic: is it Ebola?

The outside world is responding as usual. No surprise. We just ignore it. We think the solution is to close the borders and look elsewhere. 

The financial snake and the golden ghost

At present the international scene is very unstable. People with lots of money and greedy egos seem to be particularly confused about the prospects. They have the financial resources, plenty of financial muscle, they get into the markets, buy loads of shares, then get nervous, and move out as swiftly as they came in.

That shows the volatility of the overall geopolitical situation.

It also shows that financial decisions and the related markets are now fully connected all over the world. Early in the morning, well before the beginning of the business day in Europe, people in London, Paris, Frankfurt, and Luxembourg will get all the data from stock exchanges and analysts in Asia. That gives then the trend for the day.

And vice versa. Tomorrow morning, big guys in Hong Kong, Shanghai or Tokyo will start their early hours by looking at the information coming during night from the US. And that will influence their decision making.

It is often the snake eating its own tail. 

Costly Stavanger

I arrived in Stavanger last night. Coming from Lisbon, it was like a flight between Summer and early Autumn.
It´s cold and windy here But it is quite impressive to see how the city keeps growing, how large and modern business establishments are mushrooming, and also how the residential areas are able to maintain the tranquility, the beauty and the living space local people are so keen to have. In a country with an expensive cost of living, Stavanger is the priciest place.

The oil industry, this is the capital of oil exploration and services in Norway, explains the costs. It is also pretty interesting to look at the human landscape. The place is attracting a good number of immigrants, from many parts of Europe, Poland for instance, as well as refugees from the Middle East and elsewhere. And I have developed a test. If I address someone in English and he or she only replies in Norwegian, than the fellow is either from Eastern Europe or from Iraq or near by.

Most Europeans believe in the future of the EU

The daily “La Libre Belgique”, a key newspaper in Brussels, is conducting a survey on line about the future of the European Union. Basically, the question is: do you think the EU will disintegrate in the future? Over 7,000 people have now replied and only 30% said yes, that there will be no EU in the future.

At a time the common project is under serious attack in almost every EU country, the outcome of this consultation is rather encouraging. For many, Europe remains a project that is worthwhile. 

Striking ISIS is a good decision

President Obama´s decision to strike ISIS extremists in Northern Iraq should be supported by a large number of opinion-makers. It is time to say no to that type of medieval savagery as the one implemented by these fanatics.

This is a good point for the current administration in Washington at a time when the same administration has been losing credibility because of their vacillating position regarding Israel´s violations of international law and the lunacy of Hamas´s political decisions.

We should be much wiser

The international political tensions keep deepening. And they have a major negative impact of trade and investment. We seem to be going back to the international environment that prevailed for several decades after World War II. Around 1985 there was a change to a more constructive engagement. We are now going back to destructive confrontation. The weapons that are being used might belong to the economic realm. But a confrontation is spiralling process and it can therefore make use of other means, inclusive the military ones. To believe that war is something of the past is an idealistic view. Today´s events in Ukraine show that war in Europe is still seen by some as an option. The big difference with 1945 is that in today´s world the means of destruction are much greater. Can we keep that in mind? 

The environment in Eastern Europe is not good

President Vladimir Putin keeps playing tough ball on Ukraine. And he is also raising the stakes in his response to the Western sanctions. Both decisions are serious challenges to peace in Europe.

It would be a mistake to take peace in our continent for granted.

But even if this only part of a gambling approach to international relations, we should not forget that the decisions that are now being implemented carry important economic costs. And we should also keep in mind that when the political leaders are ready to sacrifice the economy that means a lot. One should then redouble the security precautions. Better be alert and prepared. 

Portugal could have been brought down by a single man

Ricardo Salgado, the top man at the Portuguese bank Banco Espírito Santo (BES) had been called by his countrymen the “owner of everything”. He was indeed a very influential fellow. Now, it has been concluded that his bank was in shambles and that the gentleman, who had friends in almost every corner of the political, economic and academic elite chessboards, was about to bring the Portuguese economy down, not just his bank and business empire. His business interests were wide and covered several sectors. The misjudgments, the malpractices and the cover-ups have therefore a very wide impact. The true measure of this collapse is yet to be fully grasped. For the time being, only the bank side of the story has been safeguarded. But an initial lesson that can be learned from this saga is that when a banker is also a major business actor, in a relatively small economy, things can go very wrong. 

Ghana is not moving in the right direction

For a number of years Ghana has been a model country in West Africa. It has managed to move from chaotic politics and poor economic management in the Eighties to democracy and growth in the Nineties and thereafter. But recently things started to move in the wrong direction as the government gave up to extraordinary demands for salary increases and accumulated a high level of fiscal deficit. These actions were taken because the party in power thought they would bring in popular support. They brought economic bankruptcy.

Now, the situation turned to the worst, with the national currency losing value at a rapid pace and the state being unable to meet its commitments. The government had to call the IMF in. This will mean quite a number of public budget cuts. I do not think the Ghanaian public servants are ready for any type of salary reductions.

We might therefore see some political instability coming back to a country we would like to keep calling a model nation.