11 September

This is a special day because of what happened thirteen years ago. But it is a bit worrying that the news of this day is about an escalation of the tensions between the EU and Russia. On the European side, today was decided to go ahead with the new round of sanctions against the other side. In Russia, the announcement was about military state of alertness and readiness and other conflict-related statements. This is indeed bad news. And this time the markets are getting very nervous about these developments. If you add to it the fact that the latest opinion poll in China and Japan shows that the public opinion of both countries is getting more and more antagonist, more convinced that conflict between them will erupt, then we can say we have a strange feeling about the state of peace in some parts of the world that are not far from our own yard. 

Juncker´s Commission

Jean-Claude Juncker came out as a strong leader, when he announced the Commisssion of the EU that he wants to put together. The choice of the first Vice-President, Frans Timmermans of the Netherlands, is a very courageous one. Juncker still recognises the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini of Italy, as a Vice-President, but places the former Dutch Foreign Minister as his right hand. Furthermore, Mogherini has agreed to move out of the EEAS building and joining Juncker at the Berlaymont building. The proximity brings greater coherence, enhances team work and sends the signal that Juncker is the boss.

In addition, the letter sent to each Commissioner by the incoming President states clearly what he expects from each one of them. It also indicates the clusters they belong to and who will be leading each one of those thematic areas. This is modern way of going governance. It is also a message about coherence, cohesiveness and lines of responsibility.

Now, the next step is in the European Parliament. Juncker might face some opposition from the Socialist group. They consider their candidates were not given enough authority in the line-up presented today. It is true. But it is also true that most of the strongest candidates were nominated by Conservative governments that are in power throughout Europe.

The Western public opinion is not getting the point on Ebola

New research information shows that Ebola could spread across a number of regions of West and Central Africa. It is also already destabilising Liberia and Sierra Leone and could easily bring havoc to other neighbouring countries beyond Guinea. It would be a serious mistake to underestimate the human, social, economic and political costs of the pandemic. And we continue to see some opinion makers in our part of the world missing the point. 

The Scottish approach to circling the wagons

The forthcoming Scottish referendum on independence should be seen as part of a movement towards the circle the wagon approach: you and your companions make a circle with all the wagons available, to protect you from the incoming Indians…Scots and other peoples in Europe think they will be better off if they stay by themselves and avoid sharing anything with the neighbours.

This is against the dream of a greater union in Europe. And it is a simplistic and nationalistic response to the challenges of globalization. But it generates a lot of popular enthusiasm, no doubt.

A vote for independence in Scotland will encourage others to go the same road in other corners of the EU.

Keeping the parts together is critical to win

It is not always true that an alliance of states is stronger than one single state. The alliances are particularly fragile when its workings are based on consensus. Consensus at a time of crisis is difficult to build and sustain. And the key set of actions of the adversary is aimed at breaking the consensus, creating divisions, exploiting the differences and diverging interests. Furthermore, the adversary will spend a lot of resources trying to divide public opinion within the alliance. Public opinion is critical in the information age of today. The adversary knows it. Actually, very often it pays more attention to our public opinion than we do. And that´s one of the weaknesses we need to address. No conflict in this age can be won if we do not carry the vast majority of the citizens with us. 

Time to be wiser

Gas supplies from Russia remain a key trump card. We should not forget it. And since yesterday, this option seems less improbable than before.

 But the signs remain very confusing. There is, in many quarters, a clear intention to de-escalate. I also see the opposite, among many influential people. People that believe it is time to go for a fight.

An agreement is better than conflict.

However, capitulation is not the same as an agreement. An agreement is based on concessions on both sides. On being able to demonstrate that conflict is too costly to both sides.

Unfortunately, we are not yet at that stage. We still believe that we can carry the argument without taking into account the other side´s interests. And vice versa. The other side is still convinced they will manage to impose their views.

It´s therefore time for the elders to come up with a wiser view of the relationship. It is time for a dialogue road map. 

To neutralise Islamic State terrorists is a priority

It is urgent to pull together an international response to the Islamic State terrorists. This is no time for further hesitation, for soul-searching strategies, for non-critical political considerations.

The key move at this stage is to form a coalition of like-minded states – that excludes Assad´s government and Iran – and agree on what needs to be done to neutralise the threat. Among other things, it is important to share intelligence on key IS leaders, on convoys and deployments, on depots, and make a much greater use of offensive drones. To contain and destroy should be the key objectives. 

On trust

The Bled Strategic Forum is taking place today and tomorrow. In Bled, of course, Slovenia. This is a new kid on the block of international strategic meetings but looks promising. The Slovenian government invests a lot on it. And it´s trying to make it the key annual event of the kind in the Balkans. It is also making use of it to promote Slovenia as a crossroads in that part of Europe, for politics and business.

This year´s event puts a lot of emphasis on trust. Trust is critical for good leadership. And it is rapidly disappearing from politics, commerce and social relations. That´s a major loss, and I agree with the proposition. No trust, no progress. No trust, no social cohesion.

The debate of matters like this one is important. They look soft but they are at the core of a better world. 

The UK is getting close to a very dangerous European crossroads.

Donald Tusk, who has just been appointed as the next President of the European Council, said at the end of the day that he cannot imagine the UE without the UK being a member. This is a wise statement. The UK´s place and future is within the Union. However, what we see more and more, in the UK, is that the populism against Europe is getting stronger and stronger. The chances of a no-vote that would force the UK to leave the EU are real. If that happens then both the UK and Europe would have lost. But that´s the nature of politics. One starts a process and then the process becomes a major avalanche. I am afraid that´s the case with the British referendum on the EU membership.

Unless Labour wins the next round of elections…but even in that case, once the dice are thrown it will be very difficult to stop the game or to nullify the outcome. 

End of summer vacations

End of August, end of summer holidays. This summer has been however a very busy one. And as we get into full gear in September, we will see an international scene pretty crowded by a number of key issues. The fragility of the politics has an obvious impact on the economy and the international business climate. But I have to say that surprisingly there is some kind of euphoria on the international financial front. A bit as if the politics and the financial matters were happening in two different worlds. And they are, in many ways. Russia and Ukraine, Syria, Iraq and ISIS, Libya and Egypt, the Ebola crisis, all that looks like crisis in distant planets. Big financial funds and the masters of global business transactions have been able somehow to isolate those crises and they believe the risk of contagion is today lower. But we forget that planets can also get into each other´s trajectory and crash. Prudence is then the right approach as we get into the new season.