A global wave of urban revolt

It cannot escape one’s attention that currently there are several cases of urban revolt taking place in a good number of countries. Each one of these mass movements have their own specific causes. But I think there are a few common features. They are related to the stress of leaving in megacities with poor infrastructure and high cost of living, housing challenges, youth unemployment, job insecurity, and the disparity of living standards one can find in every big city. Inequality and a strong feeling of social injustice combined with scot-free corruption by the elites lead to mass demonstrations, including the destruction of symbols of power.

Hong Kong: the politics of escalation

The Hong Kong political crisis calls for a deep analysis. It raises many questions. What is happening in the city for several months now is unique and a major challenge to President Xi Jinping’s authority. The population in Mainland China is not properly informed about the events. But I am told that the younger professionals in key Chinese cities are particularly interested in what is taking place in Hong Kong. To get a better picture, they are looking for alternative sources of information. And they are able to get to them, notwithstanding the extreme control the authorities try to impose on access to information. A new narrative, different from the official one, is now circulating among the younger segments of society, those with higher levels of education. It is yet too early to assess how significant that can be. But what it is clear is that in Mainland China some people are now getting a strong message coming from the demonstrations in Hong Kong. That is, there are Chinese people that do not want to live under the dictatorship imposed by the Communist leaders. They are ready to fight for their freedom. The only dimension that is tarnishing the message is the violence that is also taking place. And the Communist leaders know that they can take advantage of such violence. But playing with violence is not a good political bet.

Our present-day Don Quixote's

The world is becoming like a huge maze. There are too many paths, too many dramatic events. It is much easier to get lost at present. And many people do. They do not try to understand the logic design of the maze. They just keep moving around, they take their option as the solution. What an easy way to get confused and get mentally prepared to fight the windmills that Don Quixote could not defeat. The only difference is that the real Don Quixote had a pure and generous heart. That’s not longer the case with the politicians that play the same role today.

New forms of democracy

Some theoreticians keep saying, as they love to repeat one another, that “we live in a post-democratic world”. I disagree. Democracy is alive in many parts of our planet. The only real point is that the way it is expressed and exercised is changing fast. We live in a globalised world. National borders have lost their meaning when the issues are of a greater import. Therefore, this is a time when decisions taken within national borders must be harmonised with decisions taken by others. It is not a loss of national sovereignty or a way of undermining the democratic institutions in each country. It is simply because many issues do require a transnational response. And that’s why it is important to safeguard the authority of the multilateral organisations. Part of the democratic practise means then to be able to reach consensus.

9 November is a European date

Besides the German leaders, the Presidents of Slovakia, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary participated in the ceremony in Berlin, marking the 30^th anniversary of the fall of the Wall. I am very pleased they did. The date is an important one for freedom and democracy in their part of Europe. But it is also a key one for the rest of us, in the EU. It is about freedom, the end of a totalitarian approach to governance, the realisation that the communist utopia, as promoted by the Soviets and their allies, was nothing else but a tragic instrument to keep power in the hands of minority political extremists. It is above all a key date for Europe and its modern history. As such, it is most surprising not to see at today’s ceremony some politicians such as Emmanuel Macron, Charles Michel, the incoming EU Council President, and many others from the Western side of Europe. I think they made a mistake.

A new deal in international affairs

It would be unfair to live in the centre of the European Union and have a pessimistic view about the future of mankind. But it would also be unreasonable not to accept that for many, in many parts of the world, daily life is a gigantic challenge, a crushing trial. The point is to find a balance between our prosperity and the dramas many have to go through. In my opinion, the first step towards such balance is the one that recognises that walls and barriers will not keep their problems away from us. What keeps our safety and way of life is a value-based approach towards international cooperation and mutual respect. That should be the message the leaders should take as their key policy line.

No to Erdogan's resettlement plan

President Erdogan of Turkey wants to repatriate a large number of Syrian refugees. His plan is to create several resettlement camps on the Syrian side of the border, in the “safe zone” his troops control, between the towns of Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ain.

He is putting a lot of pressure on the UN Secretary-General António Guterres. The President wants the Secretary-General to bless the plan and convene a donor meeting to raise money for its implementation. Erdogan met Guterres yesterday and the meeting was vintage Erdogan: either the UN does it, or I will.

Things do not work like that when it comes to repatriation of refugees and the role of the UN. The Secretary-General must make it clear. Repatriation must take place on a voluntary basis, with strong security guarantees, and it cannot disturb the very fragile ethnic balances that define Northern Syria. It is also true that traditional donors are not ready to finance any plan imposed by force. But that is not the key issue. The point is that people must be willing to go back. I am sure that point is not met today.

The Special Operations and the Special One

The recent American operation against the leader of the Islamic State must be recognised as a major success. In addition, I would mention three facts that are also of great import.

First, it was once again clear that the US Intelligence machinery is the best in world. They know how to establish information collection networks and they have the means and the capacity to achieve results in very hostile environments.  

Second, the US Special Operations Units are also top performers. They prepare well, train extensively the scenario they might expect and have the determination and the courage to undertake very risky operations.

Third, the President is a political disaster, whatever the prism you may use to look at him. The way he told the story was most embarrassing. He couldn’t go beyond his own self and was unable to give the moment the seriousness it deserved. He is just a poorly informed amateur. Fortunately, behind him, there is an intelligence community and a military establishment that know what they are supposed to do.

Lebanon is changing

Just a brief reference to the on-going street demonstrations that are taking place in Beirut. I admire the determination of those on the streets. Many of them are younger citizens, that are no longer ready to accept the sectarian policies and the power-sharing arrangements that have blocked Lebanon for decades. They want a different type of political system, that promotes economic growth, gives opportunities to the new generations – far better educated than the previous ones – and is clean of corrupt practices and religious bias. It is a genuine domestic movement, notwithstanding the accusations made by the radicals that foreign powers are behind the events. In fact, the foreign partners of the country have been surprised by these popular rallies. They were so much used to the status quo, so they couldn’t see the change that was taking place.

I really wish well to those who want to create a new Lebanon.

Supporting the Balkans

President Macron decided to veto the launching of enlargement talks between the European Union and two Balkan States, North Macedonia and Albania. I unreservedly disagree with the position he has taken. I see it as a mistake or part of his game to get some concessions from other EU countries. It was not inspired by the promotion of peace and stability in the region. And it is certainly not in the best interests of the EU.

These two countries are certainly far away from meeting the membership criteria. They have however implemented a few fundamental reforms and must be encouraged to pursue that same path.

President Macron’s decision is particularly difficult to accept in the case of North Macedonia. The country is a delicate politico-ethnic puzzle and at every moment requires cautious balancing of its populations’ specific interests. Macedonia’s current leadership has demonstrated seriousness and courage. It calls for demonstrable European support.