Today's reminder

There is only one meaningful struggle: the persistent search for the ideal.

Vladimir, the new type of dictator

President Vladimir Putin is not a democrat. He was educated by the monstrous machinery of the Soviet Communist Party and formatted by its political secret police, the infamous KGB. Therefore, it can’t be a surprise to see, as we have seen yesterday, he is not ready to leave power. He came to the top position twenty years ago and he wants to stay at the apex of the political pyramid for life. His strategic mind tells him he shouldn’t wait up to the end of his mandate to make the changes. He has another four years or so to go as President. But he knows that the future must be prepared well in advance.

That’s what he is doing with the proposed constitutional changes.

And the lesson we, in our side of Europe must draw out of his move, is clear. Vladimir Putin is a dictator and will always relate to us as dictators do. They fear democratic regimes and will do anything to undermine them. They see us as a bad example that could cause some political contagion in Russia.  

My take on the US-China trade deal

The trade deal the US and China signed today is above all a pause in their trade dispute. That’s what makes it relevant. At a time when the trend has been to aggravate the commercial competition and the political rivalry between both giants, a lull is important. It is also an opportunity for both sides to implement some corrections and try a more constructive and balanced approach.

Therefore, I see the event with a positive eye. But I am also very much aware, like many observers, that there is deep antagonism and absolute mistrust on both sides of the deal. The Chinese do not think President Trump is constant in his political line. They are very much convinced that he can change his mind a thousand times. But for now, they bet on this deal. On the American side, they still believe the Chinese are very much determined to overtake the US economy and that they will do whatever it takes to achieve it. However, for the US leaders the deal comes at the right time. Actually, they have the advantage of controlling the agenda, a fact that is always good.

We have a little deal, that’s not bad, but we have not moved much when it comes to cooperation and trust building. In any case, a step forward is a step in the right direction. And that’s what matters.

Politics is about people and their feelings

The political fights are about emotions and instincts. The ideas must have a strong and clear human dimension to get enough support.

Power politics

Politics is obviously about controlling the power of governance. And such power must be played with the aim of managing conflicts, finding a balance between different and contradictory interests, as well as to create alliances and to open opportunities for as many people as possible. Then, we can say we have a progressive approach to politics.

Leadership and perceptions

Leadership is about empathy with the ordinary person on the street. The leader must be perceived as a caring and committed individual.

Angela Merkel meets Vladimir Putin: good move

From a European perspective, the resolution of the Libyan civil conflict is a priority. Such crisis has several consequences that are of special importance for the EU Member States. It’s next door, it’s related to a very central migratory flow line, and it has also a serious impact on security in the larger Sahelian region.

But the conflict is far from being resolved. It is getting more complex and deeply dramatic these days. In such context, today’s travel to Moscow to meet President Putin has placed German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the centre of the European efforts. It was the right thing to do. The Europeans must talk to the Russians if they want to see the Libyan drama resolved. The Russians have been very supportive of one of the Libyan sides, the one led by the rebel General Khalifa Haftar. But they have not closed the door on the other side, the one based in Tripoli and recognised by the international community. Moreover, the Russians keep talking to other external actors that are involved in Libya’s domestic situation, to the Turks, the Egyptians and some Arab Gulf States.

Another positive move, out of today’s travel, is the reaffirmation by Angela Merkel that the Libyan peace process must be facilitated by the UN. This is the kind of support that is so much needed.  

   

Where is the UN Security Council?

These are very strange times. The international scene has been deeply challenged since the beginning of the New Year. And we heard no mention of the UN Security Council. The Council is supposed to be the ultimate custodian of international peace and security, I like to remember the people I talk to. Now, the Council seems to have become the ultimate guarantor of a silent approach to major crises. That should not be accepted.

NATO in Iraq: a very well defined role

The NATO training mission in Iraq (NMI) has been temporarily suspended due to the recent developments in the country. In my opinion, it should remain frozen for a few more days or even an additional couple of weeks. That would give time to all participating countries to do a proper assessment of the situation and take a more informed decision about the future of the mission. In an ideal world, it should not resume until the political stalemate within the Iraqi government isn’t resolved. But that can take a long time.

The critical issues regarding this mission are its own protection – it must be clearly assured – and the views of the Iraqi leaders. They must state, without any ambiguity, that they want the mission to continue its work.

In any case, it seems to me out of the question to expand the scope of the mission and combine the training with a more operational approach. This is no combat mission and it should remain as such. Any suggestion or request, from any member state of NATO, to transform the role of the mission into a fighting force should be firmly opposed.

One step in the right direction

The Iranian leadership has shown restraint. The attack against two military camps that accommodate deployed American service men was surgical, in order to avoid an escalation of the situation at this stage. That was a wise move. The American leadership responded to it with wisdom as well.

That could be seen as encouraging. However, it is too early to draw any definitive conclusion. One thing is the direct response from the Iranian military and political establishment, another is the way irregular groups can act as part of the feud.

The fact of the matter is that Iran cannot engage in conventional conflict with the US. Its military budget is a tiny grain of sand when compared with the US. Washington spends in about 9 days what the Iranians budget for a full year. We are therefore talking about two different worlds. For the tiny player, the options are clear: either play
 it down or make use of non-conventional means, which are cheap and can be very impactful. I really hope the Iranians will choose the first option. Much better for them and all of us.