The forthcoming confrontation

Tomorrow’s world should be better than yesterday. We should be able to learn a few lessons from the major crisis the world is in at present and organise ourselves in a more reasonable and humane way, as we overcome the pandemic. We should become better at international cooperation, at joint research and more responsive to the environment and poverty challenges. That might not happen, some might even say it is an impossible dream, but we must keep repeating it. The message cannot be silenced. In the meantime, we can expect major changes in international relations. The main fight will be between China and the US. As I see it, and as I fear it, we are getting to a point of no return, meaning, they both must battle the other side to be able to survive as superpowers. They both have the vocation to be competing superpowers, with two vastly different visions of the world politics. As such, they are heading towards an open confrontation. That is an extremely dangerous new development. It must be stopped. And that can only be done if we have a strong European Union, that can bring a new equilibrium to the international scene.

Hoping we will be sage and visionary

I can only hope that May will be a good transition month. I believe it can be if everyone in leadership positions understands that consultations and coordination between nations that have a similar destiny are crucial. Within the European Union, we need a renewed momentum, a stronger role coming from Brussels, and more discussions between key national leaders. There is no recovery if it is not done jointly.

Kim Jong-un keeps smiling

Today’s news is that Kim Jong-un is back. There has been a lot of speculation about his health. Now, thanks to the photos made available by the Korean Central News Agency, we know he is alive and smiling. He is also a bit fatter. That might be the result of some good time at his holiday villa, by the Sea of Japan. His sister, Kim Yo-jong, who is a powerful figure in the political landscape of mysterious North Korea, could tell him he should do some dieting. She appears in one of the pictures just next to him. That shows her importance and influence, I would dare to say.

In any case, Kim Yo-jong, who is a young person – age 32 years –, is now being studied and followed by several special people in the West. She might have a future in tomorrow’s North Korea. The country remains a family business.

May Day 2020

It is International Workers' Day. That is an important date for many in Europe and in other regions of the world. We celebrate the working people’s rights. And I add to that my deep appreciation for those who keep struggling to survive. Particularly currently when most of the economic system is upside down. At the same time, as I look ahead, I see continued disruption and new levels of hardship. And I do not see the collective political will that a situation like the present one would require. Each leader is hiding behind national border walls. That is the wrong approach. We need regional and international joint efforts. As we need to promote cooperation between the big economies, including the US and China. Harsh words, bellicose statements, at this stage, do take us in the wrong direction. Leaders that follow that path will be severely assessed by future generations.

Fake news

This April has been an exceedingly difficult month for so many all over the world. We know the reason, the visible reason. But behind it, there is a lot that remains unclear. And when the clarity is missing, some people just take advantage to launch their own campaigns, particularly those fellows who have ill intentions. That explains the large number of fake news that is spread through social platforms daily. Unfortunately, those fakes get lots of followers. And they are amplified by bots, internet robots. One of them is about the 5G telecommunications network. I wonder who might be behind the crusade against 5G. Who would gain by sabotaging that advanced system? The fact of the matter is that someone or some organisation is trying to undermine the credibility of the fifth-generation technology for cellular networks.

Let the planes fly

One of my messages is clear. International travel should restart as soon as possible. There are enough means to control the health condition of passengers before departure and upon arrival. And the airlines can organise the space inside the planes, to guarantee a minimum of safety. This is a sector that is in dire straits. It must be given a chance to come back. But I am convinced we will see some big changes soon. The airlines will have to rethink their business model. And, in some cases, we might watch some companies just moving out of the business. Their viability is far from being possible. And we cannot have public money being spent just to keep them in the skies.  

The transition ahead of us

Many of us are now getting tired of the lockdown. This is, therefore, a dangerous period, when people start looking for opportunities to escape the quarantine and become more critical of the authorities. They are also feeling the squeeze when it comes to their income. Many families have been living on small budgets. They are at the limit of what they can sustain. They want to go back to the economy. They think it should be possible if adequate protection measures are implemented. Long transition periods might be wise from a public health point of view but have serious political costs. Governments must be clear when explaining the way the transition is expected to work. That is a task that requires top attention.

The balance that must be found

There is fear and growing poverty, in most corners of the world. We witness uncertainty and despair. The pandemic is killing people and destroying livelihoods. These are the two critical dimensions that must be tackled as a matter of great priority. Both are very urgent matters. The wise leader is the one that can strike the right balance between them. And who knows how the balance should evolve. That means, among other things, that an absolute and prolonged lockdown, with no economy, is not a balanced approach. It is not even necessary if there are enough masks to go around and the appropriate human behaviours are followed.

I just learned, for instance, that Argentina has decided to close its commercial airspace up to September. That is too long and certainly not a sage decision. A country like Argentina, which is already in an awfully bad economic shape, should approach any drastic decision with lots of prudence. The same, elsewhere. I mention Argentina as just an example.

China prefers Donald Trump

It is now clear that the Chinese leadership would prefer Donald Trump. The messages we are getting from Beijing are that they believe that Joe Biden would be tougher on China than Trump. They now know the current President relatively well and they think that if there is an agreement on trade everything else will be manageable. They see Donald Trump as a transactional leader. He is aware of the Chinese geopolitical ambitions and must refer to them in his public speeches. But he can be satisfied with a trade agreement if he thinks the agreement is good for his electoral basis. And it is true he has a good personal rapport with President Xi Jinping. On the other side, the Chinese leadership see Biden as more ideological. He will be raising issues that are particularly unpleasant to the ears of the Chinese Communist bosses. Issues such as human rights, the special status and freedom in Hong Kong, the re-education camps in Xinjiang Province, the relations with Taiwan, and so on. These are extremely sensitive matters for Beijing. Trade is a small business when compared with any of these challenges. Therefore, they will try to do anything they can to make sure that Donald Trump gets re-elected.

Poor leadership

Europe is again building borders and walls. The leaders decided this week that the external borders of the Union will remain closed for another month or so. I see this decision as an inept response to the problem. Airports and land passage points could be equipped to check travellers’ temperatures and identify the individuals that might require further health scrutiny. Worse, the internal borders between the Member States continue to be blocked for people’s travel. And the governments cannot agree on a timetable and a phased approach to deal with that. There is no news about the matter, besides the closure. That is the best way to feed the nationalistic feelings. It is also one of the direct roads towards a fragmented Europe. Populists must feel excited.

I am shocked by the lack of coordination within the EU. I am also amazed by the timidity of the European institutions’ leaders. They are silent and so afraid of proposing anything. They have become the obedient functionaries of the national leaders and little else.

The world’s recovery, as well as the European one, calls for renewed cooperation, complementary and strategic alliances. We should be debating that in the G20 or a similar forum. All that is yet to be seen. There is no international conference being prepared to agree on a framework for action. No leader speaks on behalf of a greater project, of a different future, of anything else but of his or her own national square mile. It is disappointing and more, it is the wrong approach to build the post-covid world.

Some national leaders and some published opinion have now concluded we cannot depend on China or elsewhere when it comes to medical items, including masks. They put the blame on the Chinese and on the corporations that have established their workshops in the Far East or in India. That is an excuse. I do not accept it. The fact of the matter is that we forgot the concept of strategic health reserves. The national health services were not given enough means and attention. They have been undersupplied; the emergency stores were depleted. It is so much so that in Belgium some of the initial health supplies came from a big bank, that had understood early enough what was going on and created a substantial reserve of masks and so on. That happened with other governments as well. Politicians forgot the old and wise adage that one of the key roles of the government is to foresee impending crises and be prepared for them. To govern is to predict.

Well, the new adage, the one that is now being applied, is different: to govern is to react, a day at a time.