The weather is not good

Today we had municipal elections in Portugal. It is, at this time, a bit early to get to conclusions. But it is obvious that many will read the results as a defeat for the government. And this will bring additional political stress to a situation is far from being stable. The country will continue to be a poor lame duck in a European scene that is less and less prepared those that keep limping behind. 

Riga

It’s a delight to spend time in Riga. I am now at the end of my usual long September stay in the capital of Latvia. And I leave with a good feeling. This is a place that is forward looking, committed and full of beautiful people. They are also an example of civility and discipline. And those are two ingredients that make everyday life much easier. Even in the cold and the rain of the long days of autumn or in the freezing temperatures of very heavy winters. Even when money is short and the living get tough. But this people will make it, I am sure.

EU defence

An objective estimate of the potential threats to Europe’s security – Europe in the sense of EU – is still missing. Such estimate – which is like an anticipation of the key risks to our collective security – needs to be made by a combination of civilian and military specialists under the direction of a civilian personality. It cannot be done by the soldiers alone. It is also impossible to do it without associating the best minds within the military. And people tend to forget these very elementary principles. 

Leadership and related matters

In today’s world, when you have a crisis, you invest in diplomacy and negotiated solutions. But it would be a mistake not to back diplomacy with knowledge and force preparation. You need to know. You have to access the best analysis of options you can get and, at the same time, enough force and determination to make use of it. This is the quickest way to convince the other side, the opposing side, that negotiations are the best alternative for them. More than ever, a comprehensive approach to crisis response requires good diplomats, top class intelligence and well trained soldiers.  On top of that, you have put good leadership. And that’s the difficult part of this complex equation. Leadership. Leadership is about vision, intuition, and courage. It requires experience, and combines it with commitment and risk taking.

UN General Assembly

The annual meeting of the UN General Assembly started today, with a number of important speeches. My gut instinct is that there is a bit of space for new diplomacy initiatives as far as Syria and Iran are concerned. But then I think of the many other places that attract little attention and are in the midst of serious national crisis. These are the forgotten conflicts. But death, violence, rape, and sheer fear are the ones that do not forget people in those lost corners of our collective memory. 

Nairobi's drama

Nairobi is a major international hub and a reference city in East Africa. The UN has a very large presence there, including the world headquarters of the UN Environment Programme. In addition, there are many embassies there, a significant number of transnational firms and a dynamic private sector. For many tourists that visit that part of Africa, Nairobi is the entry and exit point. The national carrier, Kenyan Airlines, has become one of the most efficient in Africa. They bring people to Nairobi from many corners of Africa and fly them out to Europe and Asia.

Furthermore, the political situation, which had been so traumatizing in the elections five years ago, has evolved in the right direction. This year’s presidential race was a peaceful exercise in democracy. Notwithstanding the ethnicity dimension that is very present in the society, stability has regained the place it used to occupy.

The Kenyan Armed Forces have been a key player in the fight for peace and normalcy in Somalia. They have inflicted heavy pressure on the radicals over there and managed, with other African troops, to get the worst of them, Al-Shabab, out of the Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu.

Apparently it is this extremist and highly violent group, which is also closely linked to Al-Qaeda, that is responsible for the drama that has befallen over Nairobi since yesterday.  They came to kill and to remind all of us that radicalism and violence are key enemies of democracy and very serious threats to economic and political stability. 

Remain focused and patient

No problem, I thought, if one keeps repeating the same key messages over and over because in any case most people are not in a listening mood. The point is to repeat them with consistency, clarity and grace. 

European illusions

I just came out of a lecture about the future of Europe. Full of great ideas it was. And it was also based on the false premise that the future will continue to turn around Europe. Like the British thought, at the end of the 19^th century, that Britain will always be the centre of the world. 

Challenging the welfare state

Willem-Alexander, who has recently been inaugurated as King of the Netherlands, addressed Parliament for the first time. In his speech he announced that the Dutch welfare system is no longer sustainable. And he linked his statement to the globalisation and the ageing population.  He could also have mentioned the serious public account deficit the country is confronted with.

I suspect this statement will be quoted often in the near future.

In the meantime, on the same occasion, a friend of mine, an American lawyer well known in some circles, reminded me that in the US the age group that is growing faster, in proportional terms, is the one concerning the people aged 95 and plus.

European defence and the fools

I have yet not found the time to look at the proposals that are being prepared for the December EU Summit on European defence. But knowing what I know about the national armies in the key member states and all the budgetary cuts and reductions of means that are taking place all over Europe, I am afraid the proposal might be a disaster and an illusion. The so called EU defence might end up by being a ghost that nobody fears.

I recognise we might have some serious reservations about the US and its spying habits. But to think we can have a European defence without a strong alliance with the US is totally foolish. And Brussels these days has plenty of fools roaming around.