Juncker´s stress

As I watch and watch again yesterday´s joint EU-Canada press conference, here in Brussels, and feel sorry for Jean-Claude Juncker´s tirade against Wallonia and the whole of Belgium, I think of leadership. One of the key dimensions of leadership is the ability to handle pressure. This means one is able to remain serene even when the stress is intense. It also means that one should not pick a fight when there is no need to pick a fight. 

EU, Canada, Brexit and Trade Negotiations

The trade agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada, signed today in Brussels, took seven years to negotiate. This is a long time. However, we should note that there was good will on both sides and not too many marked differences in terms of the underlining economic philosophies. But trade agreements touch many details, they are complicated, slow processes. This is especially true for the EU because the European Commission has to keep all the member states on board as the discussions progress. That’s far from being easy and it is actually becoming even more difficult as we look ahead and take into consideration the current state of the Union.

In the circumstances, and following the Brexit decision, it seems rather improbable to reach an agreement with the UK within a two-year time frame, as required by the EU treaty. We might find ourselves confronted with never-ending ping-pong. Unless both sides are reasonable in their demands and state very clearly what they want to achieve as part of a mutually beneficial compromise. The discussions call for a wise, constructive approach. But the politicians, of either side, are rarely up to that task. They see it as a fight and then everyone loses. 

Rajoy, a temporary victory

Mariano Rajoy has just been confirmed by Spain´s Parliament as Prime Minister. He won the vote because the Socialist Party (PSOE) decided to abstain. After ten months of political uncertainties and drama, the country has now a full-fledged government.

But Rajoy, who has been Prime Minister since 2011 – in Spain the job is called President of the Government, to indicate the authority that is attached to it – starts his new mandate from a very weak power base. His party does not control enough votes in the Cortes (Parliament). This means he will have to look for compromise at the critical moments of his governance. Not easy, as Spain´s political scene is very fragmented. Moreover, there are many personal antipathies among the key party leaders. And Rajoy himself is not really a man that knows about bridge-building. He is too arrogant to be able to act as a good negotiator.

Rajoy´s term might be short-lived. Spain could have new general elections in a year or two. Fortunately, the economy is doing well and steadily recovering from the deep crisis it suffered a few years ago.

The state of politics

I just spent two full weeks in the Southwest of the US and also in Florida. I met a good number of local fellows and most of them did impress me. They are part of those who make America great, on a daily basis and anonymous manner.

I was in Fort Lauderdale the day of the last debate between Hillary Clinton and her republican opponent. As I watched their duel, I kept wondering about today´s politics in a democratic context. To be more precise, I couldn´t stop my continuous bewilderment as I was confronted – through the TV screen, of course – with the extreme and primary mediocrity of the Republican candidate.

I have friends that are Republican supporters. I respect their options. But in the case I was gazing at there was nothing I could find that would allow me to anchor a bit of respect. 

Out of my routine

My daily routines will be completely messed up  during the next two weeks. There will no real writing to be expected on this site... 

May´s rhetoric

The rhetoric the new UK Prime Minister is practising deserves attention. It signals a policy change, not just a different style of oratory. It aims at projecting a tough, hard-nosed nationalistic approach combined with populist overtones. 

But I am not fully sure it works. 

First, it is becoming repetitive, which shows a bit of an imagination deficit. It´s not too far from the broken disk sloganeering. Then, second, it´s not direct enough. It might not be fully understood by the working class fellow. It has an intellectual pretentiousness that contradicts the ambition of being close to the people. Thirdly, it sends a message of arrogance that is irritating some of the key European leaders.

Reforming Peacekeeping

There are several areas of the UN´s work that call for reform. Today, I would mention the Protection of Civilians in relation with the mandates of peacekeeping operations. The reason I raise this issue derives from the report the Center for Civilians in Conflict, a Washington based NGO, just published on the recent dramatic events in South Sudan. Basically, the report states that the UN Blue Helmets did not move out of their barracks and therefore neglected to protect the humanitarian workers. Several of these workers became then victims of extreme violence at the hands of the national soldiers, governmental and rebels alike.

These facts are accurate. The truth of the matter is however much more complex. The UN troops had no means to confront the heavily armed South Sudanese fighters. The UN weapons disadvantage was a crying one. And the fighters were simply determined to shoot and kill the UN Blue Helmets, in case the latter would become too visible on the streets.

These raises a very good number of fundamental questions about deploying a UN peacekeeping force where there is no peace to keep. Should the UN be there? Was the Security Council right when approving the mandate for the South Sudan mission? Should we envisage an international fighting force first, for an initial intervention? How should we put together such a combat mission?

There are indeed many questions just on this issue. And this just one of the many issues that call for serious rethinking.

Antonio Guterres

Antonio Guterres will be the next Secretary-General of the UN. He stood head and shoulders above all the other candidates. His qualities were so obvious that he could overcome the geopolitical pressure to have someone from Eastern Europe and also the advocacy campaign to have a woman as the new head of the UN. He has also been able to unify, at least on this matter, a much divided Security Council.

This is a difficult job. And the current international environment makes it even more complex. As I congratulate Guterres, I also trust he will have the wisdom the moment requires. 

The US and Russia today

We reached today a new peak of tension between the US and Russia. It is directly related to the Syrian crisis and the fact that each country is clearly supporting one side of the conflict. A conflict that is too complex to be sorted out by political means alone.

But that´s only the immediate cause. The deeper reason is rooted on political competition between the US and Russia. It´s not about ideological differences between them, as it was the case during the Cold War. It is far more serious. It´s related to perceived vital national interests. Each country sees the other as very dangerous competition. And this is a new development, a new dramatic feature in the international scene.

I see it as particularly threatening to peace. I believe it is urgent to talk loud and clear about it and try to change this very hazardous views of power politics.

A sharper EU foreign policy

I am for a much firmer approach to EU foreign policy. And also for a much more focused approach.

European leaders must be clear. Among themselves and with the outside world. That´s what the citizens – today better informed than ever – expect. They do not want to be taken for fools. They do not take contempt easily.  

To be clear means we call a spade a spade or we just remain silent and move way from what we cannot change or should not try. An example is the EU presence in the Middle East Quartet. This is never-ending swamp. We should make it known we do not believe it can achieve any meaningful progress in the medium term. And call our participation off.

The leaders are also required to be more strategic. That means they should put the resources where it matters. We can´t be everywhere. We shouldn´t be everywhere. We might have a global presence but that does imply a global reach. We have interests to fight for and they should be the priority. Also, we have some international moral commitments. We should also respond to them. In a very unambiguous way.

The current EU foreign policy is too fluffy. It needs a sharper approach.