Mozambique needs to enhance the domestic political dialogue

On Saturday about twenty armed men attacked a police station in a rural area of central Mozambique. The attackers could be linked to former rebels of Renamo, an organization that fought the Frelimo-led government during the eighties and early years of the nineties. That was at the time a very ugly civil war.

Today, Renamo has changed itself in to a political movement. As a party, it sits in Parliament and its leader, Afonso Dhlakama, is given the status of Opposition leader. But the old tensions between the two sides are still very much part of Mozambique’s political life. The Saturday incident is only a remote reminder of the widespread, deep animosity that defines the relations between Renamo and the party in power, Frelimo.  

 Mozambique’s Human Rights League (LDH) has just called the attention of those who want to see the reality that civil war could come back. And it appeals for statesmanship, tolerance and political consultations. Particularly at a time when local elections are being prepared and national legislative elections are scheduled for 2014.

During the last twenty years the donor community has invested heavily in the country.  They have become major partners in the peace building process. They should make use of their leverage to push both political sides to dialogue. It would be a serious mistake – which the key international players cannot afford – to pretend that there is no problem. 

UNDP and the interests of the private sector

UNDP, the UN Development Programme, is about to finalise its new policy on partnerships with private corporations and foundations. Initial indications tell us that the organization will not accept any kind of association with firms and institutions linked to the tobacco and arms industries.

This is certainly a good decision.

It will be interesting to find out if the exclusionary criteria will also include financial houses that make tonnes of money on speculative transactions as well as other companies that are known for their very limited respect for local communities or the environment. 

Margaret Thatcher: a simple tribute

Margaret Thatcher, who died this morning, stood among the most salient leaders of the second half of the 20^th Century. Born in poverty and being a woman in a man’s world, she overcame stereotype and prejudice. She was a person of great nerve and resolve, very tactical and at the same time, focussed on the big picture and strategic. Like many leaders, she could be extremely stubborn and very suspicious about the people surrounding her.

All in all, her example inspired many; even those who deeply disagreed with her ideologically charged conservative views and policies. 

Leaders understand the public mood

As I observe what is going on in some European countries, I have to recognise I do not understand Prime Ministers who are afraid of reshuffling the composition of their Cabinet.  It is a serious leadership weakness. It gives the impression the leader is trapped by his or her direct collaborators and has no real power to change ministers and bring in new blood.

It also sends a very strong negative signal of stubbornness, inability to adjust to new political circumstances.  For the voters, it looks like the leader is just ignoring the way the public opinion has evolved since Cabinet has been put together. 

Strong, capable and accepted leadership is critical

The Portuguese Constitutional Court has reviewed the 2013 national budget law and declared four revenue generating measures invalid because they violate the spirit of the country’s Constitution. The cancellation of these fiscal initiatives has an impact on the overall budget deficit, as they increase it by 0.8% to reach a deficit of around 6.3% of GDP this year. This is way above the amount agreed with Portugal’s external creditors. It projects a negative international image that contradicts the very serious stabilisation efforts the country has implemented so far.

The Court’s decision has created a major political crisis. The Prime-Minister met the President this evening to review possible options. But there aren't many, in the short term. The stabilisation process requires a long time horizon. The country has to be able to convince its external partners that as it pleads for more time and flexibility it also stays the reform course. It has also to show that it has a strong, capable and accepted leadership at the rudder…  

Access to political power

As the offshore findings of The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) have shown, information technology has a major impact on political transparency. Access to information is now much easier and government leaders know that it has become much more difficult to hide corrupt practices away from the citizens. But that is not enough. It is time to transform the access to information into access to political power and be able to ensure renewal at the level of the political elites. Democracy is also about opening the leading circle to new entrants.  

Offshore

Today’s big news is the disclosure of the findings of an extensive worldwide investigation carried out by a large consortium of international journalists about offshore financial transactions. 

It is true that many of the identified operations are legal, in terms of the international law regulating financial and business activities. However, it is also a fact that a large number of those transactions are just a cover for criminal activities, including outright stealing of public monies by some very well-known government leaders.

It is too early to evaluate the impact of this wide-ranging investigative work. But one can expect a number of heavy political storms in the days ahead. But, I suspect that in the end the ones that will be prosecuted will be the smaller fish, the mere mortals, not the big leaders linked to political power. 

In politics, you better be your own man (or woman)

During my work with President Francois Bozizé of the Central African Republic (CAR) – from 2008 to 2010 – I always felt that he was too inclined to indiscriminately follow Idriss Déby’s positions.  For me, and I said it several times, it was not good politics to be so much dependent on the Chadian President.

 First, Chad and CAR are too very different socio-political realities. Even Southern Chad, that at the surface could be considered similar to CAR, is distinct and cannot be easily compared with the reality south of the border.

Second, Déby is a man from the Sahel and his views about Central Africa are not necessarily the most appropriate ones.

Third, the support Bozizé was looking for in N’Djamena had a negative impact on CAR’s domestic politics: leveraged by Chad, Bozizé did not see the critical relevance and urgency of moving faster on the issues of national reconciliation and power-sharing.

But Bozizé had a different view.

Now, things have changed. He has been ousted from power. And from his temporary refuge in Cameroon, today Bozizé accused the President of Chad of being behind the rebels that chased him from the presidency and the country.

As they say, quite often in politics the lessons are learned when it is already too late. 

France's frustations

The new French leaders feel very frustrated. This is now the talk in town, within the top power circles of Europe.

There are two main reasons for such frustration. One, it has to do with the very low approval ratings President François Hollande is getting when the voters are polled. He is now just over 30%. This is a very weak satisfaction level for a president that is still very much at the beginning of his mandate. Hollande and his advisors do not understand why the French public opinion is not responding more favourably. They are genuine when they say they do not understand the voters ‘reaction. Last week’s television interview of the President had no impact on the ratings. That has been an extremely discouraging reality check for Hollande and his people.

The other reason is related to the role of France within the EU. Hollande is very distressed he has not been able to fill the European shoes left by his predecessor. He knows Germany and other think-alike countries, such as Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands pay no attention to his views. The President of France has been reduced, in many ways, to the level of second line leaders, such as Spain or Poland. And he is not happy. But he has no idea how to turn this situation around.

I am one of those who think this state of affairs is pretty dangerous for Europe. France’s frustration will end up by bursting out. And the consequences might seriously contribute to further split and fragment the EU. 

Fools and long weekends

On April Fool’s Day you might not believe me but it was a sunny day in Brussels. Cold but sunny!

You should also trust me if I tell you that this evening most of the residential areas of the city are as deserted as in a holiday. Tomorrow is a working day but people seem to be extending the Easter weekend…

Europe loves long weekends…

Who told you we have to work harder to get over the crisis?