Ransom payments

A few years ago, when I was based in N’Djamena, I visited the Waza National Park, in Northern Cameroon on three different occasions.

The Park is located in a desolated corner of Central Africa. The main road between N’Djamena and Waza is a very strange place. You feel desperately isolated over there. It is a Cameroonian road that has seen better days. If you stop your car and walk to the right hand shoulder of the road you are in Nigerian territory. If go off road to the left you soon hit the Chadian border. On both sides you meet from time to time a few villages where life is tough and as arid as the land. And at certain times of the year, you come across the nomad people known as Mbororo, a subgroup of cattle-herders linked to the Fulani ethnic group. Actually, it is much easier to see their cows in the Waza National Park than wild animals.  

It is not a place for mass tourism.

This was the place however where a French family was kidnapped a couple of months ago. The parents and their children, plus another male relative, had been on a visit to the park. They were then taken by force across the border into Nigeria. At the time the media said they had been hijacked by the terrorist group Boko Haram. Maybe, maybe not, as there are other armed bandits in the region.

The fact of the matter is that the family was released without a fight and in very unclear circumstances a couple of days ago. The French government, including the President himself, were very much at the forefront of this liberation and made sure the media coverage was as good as it gets. And they were quick to deny that ransom money had been paid.

I want to believe so. I also know that up to very recently the French authorities used to pay – and deny it – for the French nationals that had been kidnapped in Africa to be set free. That was a very wrong approach to the problem. That was the best way to encourage the bandits expand the business and to look for more victims.

But is it a better approach to put a lot of political pressure on the governments of Cameroon and Nigeria for them to make a nice gesture and open the prison gates to a good number of incarcerated people who happen to be connected to the kidnappers? 

When the image spirals out of control...

Two friends of mine are travelling to Greece tomorrow for a week away from our grey skies. They bought a package holiday, the well-known “all inclusive deal”. Yesterday, when collecting the vouchers, they realised that the 5-star hotel they had picked is closed for lack of guests, then the alternative option is also closed; only the third choice is indeed available. They then realised that Greece has somehow disappeared from the holiday map of Northern Europe. For now, at least, I should say, and particularly for the high end segment of the tourism market.

This is no good news for Greece.

Uprooted and lost as a young man

In Western Europe, there are thousands of young men like the one that has been captured in Boston or his dead brother.

They are the children of immigrant families that came from afar. Most of those families just ran away from poverty. But many others have left behind violent conflict experiences, be it in the Middle East, in South Asia or in Africa. Or maybe closer by, in the Balkans or the Caucasus. Their sons – it’s indeed a boy’s problem – might have been born in Europe and raised in a peaceful and democratic context but some of them feel uprooted and excluded. They end up by aligning themselves with those who express extremist views about the West. For some, the war in Syria has been an opportunity to join what they believe to be a Cause. Others have been elsewhere, including in Pakistan. These fronts have made them harder and more willing to take action. As such, they represent a major security challenge to the Western European societies. And the experience has shown that this is a challenge that is difficult to match. 

Confidence in the security institutions

The response of the FBI and other police forces to the aftermath of the Boston bombings has been exemplary. The coordination among the services, the mobilization of an extraordinary amount of resources, both human and material, the relations with the citizens and the management of the media will be looked at in many police academies, in different parts of the world, as cases of best practices and models to be followed.  

Among the many lessons, they remind us that celerity in the resolution of these major threats to public life is key to recapturing people’s confidence in the security institutions and on national political leadership. 

Daring to ask the question

I was explaining to someone today that the role of this blog is to raise questions. I added that very often the political actors dare not ask the key questions. They are concerned with their positions and career. Therefore, they do not want to be perceived by their group’s leaders as challengers. I do not care about my career – it has been achieved – and I am not looking for any position. So, I beg the question and the question is based on two very simple premises: on experience and on sincerity

Mali and the international community

Mali is still in crisis. The Northern territories are far from being secured and the political situation in the capital and throughout the country is very unstable.  The Dialogue and Reconciliation Commission formally adopted on 6 March 2013 is yet to start working. Many of its Commissioners have not yet been appointed. The UN peace-keeping operation is at the design stage. The Security Council resolution that will approve the mission, under the very strange name of United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) – multidimensional needs not to be in the name, if it is an integrated mission – has been drafted but has not yet been finalised. In any case, if it were approved in the next weeks it will take several months to have the peacekeeping forces fully operational. On the other hand, the EU presence that is supposed to train the new Malian military and security personnel is just beginning its deployment.

In view of all this, the elections scheduled for July 2013 – presidential elections on 7 July 2013 and legislative elections on 21 July 2013 – seem pretty premature. I do not see the necessary minimum conditions being in place by July for peaceful and credible elections to take place. Therefore, I can’t understand the reasoning of the key Northern partners of Mali that continue to insist that this calendar should be abided by. 

On terrorism

Terrorism remains a major threat in some corners of the world. Our duty is to condemn all forms of terrorism anywhere and remember that the fight against terrorism is above all a police task. The role of politicians and intellectuals is to advocate for the police to be given the means to do their job, within the law and with full respect for the rights of the citizens. .

Then, after the police work, it is a matter of effective administration of justice.

My experience, sometimes in difficult conditions, has taught me that those who try to fight it through military means or by ways of political concessions are taking the issue from the wrong end. 

No ambiguity this time

In the field of international affairs, ambiguity is a useful political tool. Some call it "constructive ambiguity". I advocate its use as often as possible. Smart leaders do not need to hear the full sentence to understand what is at stake. Furthermore, ambiguity allows for some face saving decisions. Ambiguity creates room for compromise.

But there is a time when the clarity of the message is essential. It serves as a serious warning.

John Kerry’s message to North Korea, during the last few days, when visiting China and Japan, was indeed very clear. And dead serious. The young man of Pyongyang has gone too far and should know that he will pay dearly if he crosses the line on the sand.

My impression is that Kerry’s notice has been received. 

Syria's impact in Europe

The Belgian political leadership sees with great concern a number of young men volunteering to fight side by side with the rebel groups in Syria. They are Belgian nationals with an immigrant background. They come from Muslim families that migrated to Belgium one or two generations ago. Their parents might be mosque-going people but are not extremists. The younger fellows, many of them in their early twenties, make contact with radical groups through informal clubs, sports associations, coffee shops and internet sites. As they feel relatively disconnected from the Belgian way of life and society they are fertile ground for the radical seeds to grow.

The authorities are trying to address the problem. But these informal networks of tiny cells are very difficult to spot and monitor. It is even difficult to have a realistic estimate of the numbers involved. But it is certainly a big issue, if one takes into account the political and security attention the matter is getting these days. 

The useful idiot

In the end, Kim Jong-un is more than just a dangerous loony, he is a useful idiot. His gimmicks have become an impeccable justification for a much deeper involvement of the US military in the region. The US pivot to Northeast Asia, initiated a year or so ago, is now given a new impetus.

Kim’s follies have also given a chance to the new government in Japan to put together an extraordinary show of force in Tokyo. This masterly move has now caught the attention of the citizens, taking them away from other concerns related to the poor performance of the Japanese economy or the nuclear meltdown at Fukushima.

 And the dangerous fool will end up by contributing to an acceleration of the arms race in a region where China, South Korea and Japan, in particular, are major military competitors.

It’s indeed time to stop this fellow.