Forgotten Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe is an example of a crisis that has moved out of the public eye. At the beginning of last decade and for many years, the country´s political chaos and economic mismanagement were very much at the centre of the international agenda. Then, gradually, as there was no real progress, the matter became a side issue, like an incurable disease that nobody wants to talk about because there is no hope any more. Moreover, it was an issue that kept poisoning the relations between EU, US and South Africa, as President Zuma – and somehow, prior to him, President Mbeki – did not appreciate the Western world continuous remarks about old “freedom fighter” Robert Mugabe. For these reasons, Zimbabwe rapid, unstoppable descent into hell turned from a hot issue into a matter that was better kept under diplomatic silence. One of those cases you do not talk about, because you know it is a painful and shameful stain in the family history.

Now, taking advantage of the silence and regional support, Mugabe is back in full power and the opposition is in full disarray. MDC, the opposition party, is more divided than ever and many of those divisions have to do with Mugabe´s ability to destroy the image of the MDC´s leadership.

Old Mugabe is a talented political fox. And little Zuma and company are just too afraid to speak up their minds. As we have also become, in our Western world. When we get tired and when it offends some of our powerful friends, we just play a different tune.

  

Africa´s population growth

Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is growing very fast. From less than a billion today, SSA will be home to

close to 2 billion people by 2050. This rate of population growth is a major challenge with a tremendous,
multidimensional impact in the Continent and globally. By mid-century, there will be in average two
Africans out of nine human beings and almost three times more Africans than Europeans.

The most immediate demographic challenge, that needs to be addressed today, is how to help Africa to
stabilise its overall population at the level of two billion. If we do not act now, the population in SSA will
continue to grow beyond 2050, well above the level that could be considered as sustainable. For that, the
demographic transition, as technically defined by the demographers, needs to be accelerated through
expanded free access to contraception and related health services, girls’ education and women’s political
empowerment. Currently less than 20% of African women use modern contraceptive methods, whilst in
Latin America and Asia the prevalence rate is well over 60% in average. But evidence as shown that access
to family planning services and proactive population policies are incomplete and lack effectiveness if they
are not accompanied by widespread campaigns to get girls to schools. Furthermore, for both issues –
contraceptive access and girl’s education - to get high on the national priorities, more women need to
occupy positions of political authority, as this type of development agenda is only genuinely implemented
if driven by women leaders. I would hasten to add here that men’s adherence is critical for the
demographic transition and the adoption of modern family life, but the change only takes place if women
are truly empowered and in a position to fight for their rights.

Israel and Palestine must talk about peace

Israel leadership is reacting the wrong way to the Palestinian reconciliation. Prime Minister Netanyahu should be happy that Hamas is now getting a bit more into the main stream. And he should re-engage the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on peace matters.

Peace talks, one should be reminded, are never held with your friends. They sit around the table people that have been at one another´s throats for quite some time. They take place between enemies. They are often very difficult to accept as the other side has been killing our own people. But there is no other way to sort out a conflict but by talking to our foes. In Middle East, in Northern Ireland, in South Sudan, all over the place.

Therefore the Palestinian move towards their own reconciliation is no acceptable excuse to stop the peace process. It can, however, be used as pretext to halt a move that in any case was not genuine. Is it the case?

Time to keep visiting Ukraine

US Vice-President Biden´s visit sends a very strong message. Now, it is time for the EU leaders to start visiting Ukraine as well. 

The Ukrainian Geneva deal must move on

The Geneva agreement on the de-escalation of the crisis in Ukraine has been declared “moribund” too quickly. It is a bit like a deal that is signed but no one really wants to implement. Consequently, as soon as each side leaves the conference room it starts saying the deal is not working.

That´s not acceptable. In situations like the one in Ukraine, the implementation of conflict mitigation measures is a complex task. But it needs to be tried. And the first responsibility for its implementation belongs to those who signed it.

One should not be ingenuous. Beyond the agreement there are other moves taking place and they do not necessarily reflect what has been declared by the parties. That´s why the role of independent observers is crucial. In this case, it is essential to fully deploy the OSCE observers without any further delay. This is the most immediate response to the current situation.

After that, it is critical to trace the affiliations of the armed men. Many of them, in the Eastern part of the country, seem to be too well coordinated and too professional to be considered just self-defence forces, or civilians in arms. There is more to that. It has to be cleared soonest as well. 

Gulf of Guinea

Piracy is becoming a serious threat to the freedom of navigation in the Gulf of Guinea, in West Africa. The Nigerian Navy has arrested, during the first quarter of 2014, 37 vessels that were engaged in illegal activities at sea, most of them related to piracy attempts.

Now, a major naval exercise has been launched in that Gulf, at the initiative of the Nigerian government. 10 Nigerian ships, plus a task force of 14 foreign war vessels are now engaged in a joint exercise. The neighbours of Nigeria are part of the exercise as navies from Europe and the US. For a total of 21 nations. This figure shows the importance of the menace and the level of cooperation that has been established to address it.

It is rewarding to see Nigeria taking the lead. This is a case of good news coming from that key African State. 

Sierra Leone has a great potential

This afternoon I was in touch with a Sierra Leonean friend who lives in Freetown. He is a very enterprising young man. Thus, I asked him about the economic prospects. A got a disappointed fellow on the other side of the line. Basically, his point was that the politics are fine, there is peace but there is very little outside investment. West Africa remains a forgotten land, even after several years of political stability. And now, with the news about Ebola, the epidemic that is killing people in the neighbouring Guinea, the will to go and look for investment opportunities in the region is even lower. It´s a pity. These are potentially very rich countries. But they need capital and know how to move up.  

Boko Haram

At the beginning of the week, the terrorist group Boko Haram attacked a boarding school in Northern Nigeria and kidnapped over 130 student girls. They came with trucks and other vehicles and could move around and leave with the victims, all of this in a State that is supposed to be heavy patrolled by the Nigerian Army. Since then, notwithstanding the fact that the Army launched a major operation, the terrorists and the girls have not been found. This is again raising a number of very fundamental questions about the capacity of the national authorities to address the challenges Boko Haram poses. Something is very wrong in the way the Nigerian leaders are responding to Boko Haram.

The neighbouring countries, particularly Chad, and the friends of Nigeria are getting very worried. The terrorists are just becoming too big a menace. 

Diplomacy as part of a wider package

The agreement reached today in Geneva regarding Ukraine´s crisis is encouraging. We will see if it is implemented. But the fact that the parties, including Russia and the US, could agree on a way forward reminds us that we should keep talking, when there is a conflict, we should not cut off the bridges. That does not mean we should only try diplomacy. Actually diplomacy works better when it is combined with a full range of other measures, such as smart sanctions, military posture and deterrence, unity within the allies, and a clear political position. 

A few basic questions

On Russia and the West, there are a number of questions on the table. Do we really understand what the key Russian motivations are? Do they matter, as far as the Western interests are concerned? Why? If the answer is yes, what are then the West´s political response options that are realistically available? Which one is the preferred one? What are the chances of success? And what are the risks? Who are our allies? 

These are the key questions we must keep in mind and respond to. Action taken that is not based on clear answers to these interrogations should be called improvisation.

And this is no time for skin reactions. What is at stake is important. If the West is caught unprepared and without a clear strategy, then we are in for more, in the foreseeable future.