The ways of the Cold War II

This year´s edition of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, an annual event that aims at bringing together the Chief Executive Officers (CEO) of major world corporations, started last night with a grandiose nine-course banquet. This is an important event that the current state of affairs between Russia and the West has made even more significant. Therefore, the fact that seven of 12 key participants from the US have decided to cancel their participation cannot be ignored. For the US, more in their case than for the Europeans, the severing of as many economic relations with Russia as possible is the key response to President Putin´s policies towards Ukraine. This approach is considered in Washington as the best and most impactful way of undermining Russia. The new face of our modern day “Cold War” is above all about economic muscle and financial measures.  

EU games

The EU elections will bring a sort of a hung parliament without any clear majority on the right or left side of the assembly. Jean-Claude Juncker and Martin Schulz will be leading two parliamentary groups very similar in terms of number of seats won. No need to have a crystal ball to know that. The tiny difference between their respective groups will not be enough to decide who of the two will be the next President of the Commission.

In the case, the EU Council, which brings together heads of State and government, will have once again a major say in the selection of the new Commission boss. And there, Schulz will be in a serious situation of disadvantage. First, because of his nationality. Merkel does not seem prepared to have a strong German in Brussels. It would be a bit of a competition. Besides that, it would attract again too many attacks on Germany, particularly when new crises will emerge. And other countries might have also some difficulties in seeing a fellow from the top country in charge of the EU. For some people, the Commission should always be led by people from the smaller member States.

And that´s where Juncker might have an advantage.

But nothing is decided.

The British might think that politically, for their domestic political games, Juncker is the ideal candidate to say no to. He can be presented in the UK as being to European, too much for the Eurogroup. In the circumstances, to veto him could give some little mileage to Cameron. And Cameron will certainly need, after these elections, whatever little advantage he thinks he can grab.

Let´s be clear about the EU elections

The key call for this weekend´s European election is to vote for pro-EU candidates. At a time of uncertainty and big challenges, including widespread demagoguery, the European project would be under a critical threat if the ultra-nationalists and extremists were to get a sizeable percentage of seats at the new European Parliament.  

Modi as a major partner of Europe

It has been a bit of a mere footnote in the European media, but I think we have to pay greater attention to the political change that is taking place in India. Narendra Modi´s overwhelming electoral victory cannot be ignored. It is, in many ways, an expression of a new India that wants more economic development, concrete results in terms of improved living conditions, and less cronyism and paternalism. Congress Party had become too complacent and too distant from the daily concerns of the people. That´s why they have been voted out. Modi brings a powerful argument with him: the changes he has achieved in his own home State of Punjab. His challenge now is to be able to respond to the aspirations of the ordinary citizen. And also to be able to send a strong signal to the Muslim population. The Indian Muslims need to believe the new Prime Minister is there for all.

EU should engage the new government in Delhi soonest. At the highest level possible, from the European side. Europe has to see Modi and his team as essential partners. 

Ruse at play in Eastern Ukraine

We are again reminded that deception is a critical tool of war and conflict. You have to let your enemy believe he understands your intentions and plans. Then, you do something else.

That´s so much what is happening in Eastern Ukraine these days. 

Schulz and Juncker, the twin brothers

 As it gets closer to the EU parliamentary elections it is also clearer that the two main candidates for the top job of Commission President are just the opposite face of the same coin. There is no major difference, in terms of EU policies and choices, between Martin Schulz, from Germany and leader of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, meaning the social-democrat head, and Jean-Claude Juncker, from Luxembourg and the front name for the European People´s Party, the centre-right. Therefore, the question is more about personalities than anything else. Some people would find Schulz more attractive, they would say he might be more progressive, whatever that means in the case of these two men, others would say that Juncker has more experience. Between the two, it is obvious that Juncker is the one that has been around longer, that knows more when it comes to the business of government and also has been tested as the leader, for a very long period, of the finance ministers´ Eurogroup. That makes him a better candidate. But politics is a very complex field and competence is not always a criteria of success.

Boko Haram in Paris

Today´s summit on Boko Haram, convened at the Elysée Palace by President François Hollande, should be seen as a constructive initiative. 

The concrete results in terms of fighting the Nigerian terrorist group might be very tiny. But it had some other advantages.

 It kept the pressure on the President of Nigeria. President Goodluck Jonathan must take the issue with a greater degree of seriousness. 

It also showed that the countries in the region – particularly Cameroon and Chad – must be fully engaged and cooperate among themselves. This is lacking. Especially as it concerns Cameroon. North Cameroon – an area I know relatively well – is a forgotten region, when seen from the capital Yaoundé. This has to change. The Cameroonians have to increase their police and armed forces presence in the North. They have also to be prepared to cooperate with Nigeria and Chad. 

The summit has also emphasized that the problem requires international cooperation if it is to be tackled without further delay. France can certainly play a role on the French-speaking side of the region. The UK has to be more involved on the Nigerian side. And French and British intelligence services have to work hand in hand on the ground and be willing to treat the African counterparts as equals.

All this is a bit of an ambition. Not easy to achieve. But it has to be said. And the pressure has to go on.

We will see what progress will be reported as accomplished when the ministers meet for a follow-up conference next month in the UK. 

The coming EU elections

With a little bit more than a week to go before the next round of European elections, the popular enthusiasm is truly low. In many EU countries, the elections will be basically an exercise on abstention.

The lack of interest for this vote and the role played by anti-EU parties put the common project in a very dangerous path. More than ever, we are at a crossroads. More than ever, we need a serious bunch of European politicians that can talk to the people and be clear about the critical importance of a united Europe.

Are we going to get them elected?

Are those who speak for Europe numerous enough to make a difference?

Europe cannot lose the public opinion battle. 

Afghanistan beyond 2014

Still no agreement between the Afghan government and the coalition of countries that would be ready to provide security assistance to Afghanistan after ISAF´s closure at the end of this year.

This is a matter of concern. It is true that Afghan forces are today better prepared than before. But that might not be enough. Actually, the country continues to require international cooperation in matters of internal security. To believe otherwise would be a straight and short road to disaster.  

Ukraine and the election of the new UN Secretary-General

Have we thought that a collateral damage resulting from the Ukraine crisis is related to the election of the new UN Secretary-general? Up to now it was safe to believe that the new SG, to be elected in 2016, would be a senior figure from Eastern Europe. Now, with the tense situation that has developed between the West and Russia, it is very likely to see Moscow opposing a strong candidate coming from a former member of the Warsaw Pact. Or from a former USSR territory. That puts an end, I believe, to the ambitions some key figures in the Baltic States had been nurturing.

It also increases the chances of someone coming from a smaller Western State. And it gives a new breath of hope to UNDP´s boss, Helen Clark, a New Zealander that would love to be in charge.