Little minds

There are so many new headlines from Gaza to Ukraine, from the planes that crash here and there, and then the Summer recess, that we just forget that the Nigerian school girls have not yet been freed, after several months in the hands of Boko Haram, and the Central African Republic is still the murderous chaos it was a few weeks back. And that the elections in Afghanistan are yet to be sorted out, long after the polling day. Not to mention Iraq, Libya, South Sudan, and so on...

War crimes are being committed

When the law of the war is not respect – and one should be reminded all the time that wars have their own body of international law that ought to be followed – war crimes are committed. And when they are committed the key leaders of the international community have to speak the words and say the right things. Leadership is about that. To call a spade a spade.  

In Turkey, the time for arresting senior police officers has arrived

Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey is back on the offensive against his country´s institutions. This evening we are told that more than a hundred senior police officers have been arrested on very doubtful charges, including phone tapping.

The true reason is that Erdogan is a revengeful man. He cannot forget, and certainly not forgive, that these police officers have dared to investigate corruption matters within the leading circles of government, including possible ill actions carried out by the Prime Minister himself and his own family.

They will pay for doing their job.

As the top military officers have paid for being an objective and solid institution.

This is not the kind of leadership that can take the issue of EU membership forward. 

EU and Russia: sanctions and cooperation, the two sides of the coin

I have just finished my opinion piece of this week for Visão, a well-read general news magazine that is published every Thursday in Lisbon. This time the theme had to be about the relations between the EU and Russia, in the aftermath of the shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines plane.

My points are that we have to combine much tougher and better targetted economic sanctions against key Russian enterprises, including Rosneft, making sure they cannot access the European financial markets, with a continuous invitation for political dialogue between Europe and Russia. In the end, both blocs need each other. Russia, sooner or later, will require EU capital, technology and markets to develop its Far East. And Europe has a lot to gain by participating in the economic development of its big neighbour.

However the long term view cannot ignore the realities of today. And the key message here is that Russia has to fully implement the Helsinki Act of 1975 about peace and cooperation in Europe and non-interference in the internal affairs of other states. 

In Hindsight: Sanctions : July 2014 Monthly Forecast : Security Council Report

In Hindsight: Sanctions : July 2014 Monthly Forecast : Security Council Report

Politics and real life: two different worlds

On the day David Cameron announced the last Cabinet reshuffle I found myself wondering on the platform of Paddington Station, in London, watching the crowds coming out of the trains and rushing out of the building, all very focused on another day of work or any other business, and then I asked myself what is the relationship between politics and real life. I was unable to come up with a good answer. 

Putin´s plane

It is too early to fully grasp the possible impact of yesterday´s criminal action against the civilian airplane that killed so many innocent people. But it sounds very much as a turning point in the aggravation of the relations between the West and Russia.

The shooting down of the plane has shocked many people across the world. It makes it much easier to mobilise public opinion against the Russian leadership. I am sure that Vladimir Putin feels today under much greater pressure than before.

Such pressure might help to understand that the time has come for him to convince his men in Eastern Ukraine to change tactics and to envisage an end to the armed insurrection. If that could be the outcome of the tragedy than we would be better prepared to accept yesterday´s tragedy. But even then, we have to make sure that those who shot down the aircraft are brought to justice. These things cannot go unpunished. A credible international board of inquiry is a must. 

A plane too much

The shooting-down of the Malaysia Airlines plane is clearly the work of the separatists Russia supports in Ukraine.

The tragedy brings in two points: Russia has to stop its backing of these individuals; and the Kiev government has to assess its own capability to deal with the rebels. If the assessment concludes that the government forces cannot resolve the crisis in the very near future, then the solution is to ask for help from Ukraine´s friends. The point is that the armed violence has lasted for too long and should therefore be resolved without further ado. 

Juncker is now confirmed as the new EC President

Jean-Claude Juncker has just been confirmed, by a vote in the European Parliament, as the new President of the European Commission. The vote was good enough to give him a very good starting vantage point. He should be able to take over from José Manuel Barroso in a much stronger position than the one out-going Barroso has found himself during the last years of his mandate. This should be good news for the Commission´s future. It also puts the Commission in a better and more balanced footing when dealing with the Heads of State and Government.

Kerry is not welcome in today´s Israel

It is quite clear the Obama Administration is not welcome in Netanyahu´s Israel. With the current crisis having last for more than a week, and the very serious loss of civilian lives, it would have been appropriate to send John Kerry back to Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Ramallah. Furthermore, that trip would bring some credits back to the Americans, within the Arab world. But Washington knows this move would meet with Netanyahu´s opposition. Therefore, the Administration remains silent. Notwithstanding the noise coming from the fighter jets, the rockets, the human suffering and the death of many innocent civilians.