Sanctions have an impact on the views around President Putin

In the last few months, the Russian rouble has lost 30% of its dollar value. This is directly linked to the sanctions the Western countries have put in place against Russia´s economic and financial interests. And on top of it, there is a strong fall in the price of oil, which is a key export commodity in Russia. 

All of this bites and cannot be immediately addressed by alternative ties with China and other economies. Such ties take time to produce effects. Russia is confronted with short-term challenges. It is true they have a huge sovereign fund. That gives the leadership some space. But is it enough? One start getting reports of divergent approaches within the leadership. These needs to be further investigated. 

Rethinking peace operations

I spent the end of last week in Oslo at the invitation of the Norwegian Foreign Ministry. The aim was to review their support to peace operations during the past years and to reflect about future assistance. Norway is a small country but a big player in areas of peace and conflict resolution, as well as a very committed supporter of bilateral approaches. They are particularly keen in strengthening the African Union´s peace machinery and also the UN´s.

But peace operations, as they are implemented by those two organisations, are under serious stress. The new types of menaces, the nature of conflict in many parts of the world, the challenges the West is facing in non-Western societies, are some of the key issues that call for a rethink of the deployments. The models followed up to now are no longer suited for the violence we meet today, be it in the Central African Republic, in Nigeria, in the North of Africa or in the Middle East.

The discussion is ongoing. But it can´t take long. The crises call for quick responses, early results and smart political processes. 

People´s power is based on information and access to social media as well

The big banks are all under serious scrutiny. Their public image is at present very shaky. Every day we get news that more wrong-doings have been uncovered and that new huge fines have been decided against some banks. Very soon the public opinion will start asking questions about the bankers, not just the banks. People will expect individuals to be brought to the book.

At a time of mass access to information and widespread use of social media as a communication tool, one has to realise that all those in position of power, be it political, economic or financial, will be very exposed to the public eye. This is a new age of transparency. And in many aspects, it´s a new way of creating mechanisms of power control. Change is indeed taking place. Power is being challenged. 

800 at the G20

I am told the G20 leaders have approved 800 new measures. And I answer I can´t believe it. It is not possible. Someone is making fun of us. 

The heavy skies above the G20 Annual Summit

G20 annual summits have become a meaningless ritual. The one taking place today and tomorrow in the delightful city of Brisbane, Australia, is no exception. Just a few grandiose statements and a handful of leaders that are pretty preoccupied with their own home problems. The statements on global issues are just the usual staff, prepared by the aides and delivered for the gallery.

But this year´s meeting takes place at a time of great tensions. These tensions are now much bigger than the dramatic situations in the Middle East or in parts of Africa. To their complexities we should add new ones, in other corners of the world. These are dangerous times. One cannot ignore the seriousness of the dispute with Russia. And one should not ignore the potential for armed conflict in East Asia.

And these new realities were there in Brisbane and have made the atmosphere of the summit much heavier. Interestingly, Brisbane is used to heavy skies. So, its choice as the venue for the 2015 Summit of the G20 ended up by being rather symbolic. 

Russia is getting on our nerves

The renewed intrusion of Russian troops in Eastern Ukraine, which has been properly document during the last couple of days, has brought back a certain level of fear in Western Europe. In many circles, including in the top business spheres, the anxiety comes from the fact that Moscow´s geostrategic intentions are not clear. How far is the Kremlin ready to go? This is the question. And there is no good answer to it. When such a question cannot get a reasonable response key leaders on our side of the world get nervous. That´s where we are today.  

Armistice Day

Armistice Day: time to say yes to peace and cooperation in Europe. Including with Russia, of course. Partnerships between nations, starting with the economic partnership, are the foundation for a sustainable and prosperous future for all. Confrontation and prejudice can only bring us back to the old demons of the past. 

Nigeria is being destroyed as a result of many years of corrupted practices

A large number of school children were killed today in North-east Nigeria by a suicide bomber. It was another tragedy in a country that is a key target for extremists.

I feel very sorry for the people of Nigeria. But not just because of the mass killings. Also because the widespread insecurity is the tip of a huge iceberg, made of large-scale corruption. Plenty of money has been spent on the armed forces and the police and these institutions are as weak as the rest of the public services. A good chunk of the resources was wasted and misappropriated.

 Institutions have just become facades, nothing else. That´s why Nigeria, which has a very big military establishment, cannot deal with Boko Haram. If one takes into account that Boko Haram and the extremists are just a bunch of unsophisticated terrorists one realises better the measure of the inefficiency that has resulted from many years of corrupted practices at very high levels of authority. 

From the Berlin Wall to the APEC Summit

As our part of Europe celebrates the fall of the Berlin Wall against a background of deepening tension between East and West, 21 leaders on the other side of the globe, in Beijing, meet in the framework of APEC, the Asia-Pacific Economic Forum. Their background is also marred by a very high level of tension in that part of the world. In both cases, prudence and wisdom are the key requirements leaders should meet. Here and there, it would be a mistake to ignore the risks resulting from old misrepresentations and new rivalries.

These are the two regions of the world where any conflict could easily become a cataclysm. Things would get out of hand and the consequences would be unimaginable. It is therefore important to appeal for cooperation as the way forward. Blind competition and shows of strength are no way to resolve the issues of today. The leaders need to be so reminded. 

The leader provides the answers

When everyone has access to all types of sources of information and when opinions are shaped in seconds, through headlines, sound bites and quick-passing images, it becomes very difficult to be an accepted political leader. One has to be very clear about the kind of persona one wants to project, taking into account the support basis one aims to build. It is a never ending effort. The political leader is always in the public eye and cannot let his or her attention relax. It is also exhausting. That´s probably the reason why leaders come and go so fast. They are out of gasp before too long.

I thought about all this today again as I saw the latest figures about President François Hollande´s popularity. He is at a very low point. I think his case will be, sooner or later, the subject of a major academic thesis that will seek to understand how it was possible for a French head of State to sink so fast in the public opinion.

I also thought about leadership when I saw the reports about Ed Miliband, the boss of the Labour Party in the UK. He is confronted with serious criticism about his lack of leadership charisma. His detractors say basically that he cannot connect with the common person on the street. Connecting with people is essential. But what does it mean exactly? It is certainly about creating a relationship of trust. But confidence is not enough. One has to be perceived as the one that can provide the answers to the many interrogations people have today. And that´s particularly important at a time of uncertainties. And at present there are plenty of them in our part of the world.