Greece: calling a spade a spade

Today´s prevailing position on Greece´s fate, in the European political and financial circles that have power, was rather clear: it´s time to call a spade a spade.

This basically means, as I see it, that those leading circles have come to the conclusion that the Greek situation has reached a decisive point. And the decision is to let Greece go its own way. It makes no sense to advocate for a solution that the other side does not accept.

I tend to agree. Default is painful but it is not the end of the road. Argentina and other countries have gone through that experience. Even California did. Default can actually be the beginning of a new cycle.

On the markets side, it looks as if the default possibility is now perceived as inevitable but with a manageable impact.

In the end, those who will be seriously affected are the poor people in the streets and villages of Greece. Unfortunately it´s always like that.

Bashir´s travels

Omar al-Bashir is an old desert snake. He is pretty strategic and astute. And he has also been a key player against the interests of the UN and its image, including in the peacekeeping area.

Once more he has managed to strike another blow against the prestige of the UN. In this case, the loser is the International Criminal Court.

But it is also the South African government. The authorities were caught in a dreadful dilemma: either to arrest Bashir and risk a serious row with Sudan and many other African governments; or let him leave South Africa, notwithstanding the court order, and risk further criticism at home.

They opted for the let-go option. I think in the end that was the only reasonable decision they could take. Politics is about deciding and the lesser evil is quite often the better decision. Now they should have the courage to explain the decision. Politics is also about telling the story in a way that makes sense and considers public opinion as a very serious issue. 

On mass migrations once again

Mass migrations are a new feature in the international relations list of collective challenges. They will remain in the list for a long time. As such, they require a comprehensive response and the engagement of all the key players, including the EU States and Africa.

 We, in Europe, cannot see the matter as an Italian or Greek problem, we cannot keep a country-based perspective. This must be a shared problem. We should also avoid a simplification of the matter and say this will be solved when the Libyan crisis is over or the day Niger and other countries in the Sahel have a better control of their borders.

We should also realise that the responses can only be partial, as the pressure to move North will continue for a very long time.

But that does not prevent us from taking action now. People crossing into Europe have to be properly screened. Those who have genuine reasons to apply for asylum should be processed fast and given a chance to start a new life in one of the EU countries. Everybody else should be treated with greater scrutiny, including their work skills. In the end, most of them would have to be repatriated. 

On Africa´s future

I have worked in Africa and on African affairs since 1978. I have seen many positive changes and also many crises. 

Based on my experience and taking into account key trends such as the very high rate of population growth and the explosive urbanization that defines many country situations, I can see major challenges ahead. 

For Africa to be a land of opportunities it has first to address the basic needs of the Africans, from education to health, from jobs to energy. And therefore create the opportunities for its peoples. This would require much better governance, more democracy and greater respect for human rights as well as a new type of international cooperation with Africa, including a large number of economic investments to be made by the private sector. 

Africa´s security: a collective and national effort

The issues of national and people´s security remain a core problem for several African States. 

Boko Haram is the most visible example of a country´s weak security systems. Nigeria has large military and police forces and services. It has been one the most assiduous participant in UN peacekeeping operations. But when challenged by a domestic group of extremists and fanatics it became obvious that big numbers do not mean effectiveness. 

Nigeria and many other countries will have to reform the armed forces and ensure a better coordination between the military and the police services. The reform includes a greater emphasis on professionalism, discipline, good management of the resources and better links with the citizens.

 Better security is also related to a regional response. The cooperation within the framework of the African Union and the Regional Economic Communities calls for an acceleration of the current efforts and a greater commitment to collective defence. 

Immigration: a political vacuum of collective European irresponsibility

The numbers keep adding every day. They also make it obvious that there is no European strategy to deal with the migrant flows across the Mediterranean Sea. The navy ships do their job, rescue the poor souls at sea and bring them to the shores. And after that, there is an empty policy space – a political vacuum of collective European irresponsibility – with everybody else hoping the Italians will take care of the immense problem. 

Bilderberg meeting: big egos and plenty of smoke

The annual meeting of Bilderberg “club” starts tomorrow. During three days pretty influential people from the global corporate world will sit together with politicians, opinion-makers and some very senior security service masters to review some of the megatrends – as they call the key challenges of today´s world.

The leader of this initiative is the current boss of AXA, the major international insurance company. He is a well-connected Frenchman.

This is a very secretive conference. Journalists are not allowed in as such. A couple of them will be there but as invitees, in their capacity as leading opinion-makers. They will be there because their writings –opinion columns – do influence a good number of decision makers. Secrecy leads to suspicion. Some people have called the Bilderberg crowd –about 120 to 150 of them every year –the real masters of the universe, the key plotters in terms of the next world events.

Such label is an exaggeration. Many of those in attendance have real power, in their own circles, others have prestige but little power left in their guns –they belong to the category one calls the “has been”. Obviously, there are many very powerful people outside this “club”.

Bilderberg is one of several power meetings. It is above all a networking exercise. It is of course of particular importance when compared with other similar networking opportunities – like Davos –because the number of Bilderberg participants is smaller and therefore the interaction and the bonds among them have a chance of being much more intense.

In the end, there is a lot of smoke and mystery, but very little movement beyond the private interests of the companies represented and the group therapy it provides to people with big egos.

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) should move ahead

There was a great deal of confusion today in the European Parliament. The Members (MEPs) were supposed to take a vote on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the trade agreement between the EU and the US. The move would clear the EU´s negotiating position and give the European negotiators additional discussion authority.

The vote ended up by being postponed because more than 200 amendments were tabled by the MEPs. The main challenges came from the Socialist group and are related to the choice of mechanisms to resolve potential trade disputes between US firms and EU institutions.

This is a complex matter and needs to be carefully carried out.

But we should be clear that the TTIP is important for the Europeans, both in terms of jobs – greater access to the US market will have an impact on our industries and agriculture-related activities – and access to a larger choice of goods. It will certainly have a multiplier effect on the modernisation of our productive and commercial systems as well.

We should also underline that the sooner the agreement is reached the better. Amendments and other tactical moves cannot aim at delaying the process. If they are intended to improve the final accord, that´s very much appreciated. If they are based on genuine concerns, that can also be discussed.

Opposition to TTIP is no problem. That is the normal currency of democracy. But obstruction through parliamentary procedures is just not acceptable. It´s lack of political clarity and courage.

EU is meeting the Latin American States

As I am about to witness another summit meeting in Brussels, this time with Latin American leaders, I also realise that Latin America does not feature high in terms of the EU priorities. As such, I wonder what will come out of such meeting. Is it more than a mere diplomatic move?

In the meantime, I take note that the EU-Latin America consultation will be immediately followed by a summit with Mexico. And again, I am curious about the possible outcome of that conference.

In any case, enhanced relations with Latin America will give leverage to Spain´s position with the EU. Somehow, Portugal will gain a bit as well. That’s not a bad thing as it contributes to a greater balance between the different nations in Europe. 

Japan at the head of the G7

Japan will take over the leadership of the G7. That´s bad news for China, I presume. The tensions at sea in their part of the world will certainly gain a new emphasis during the next 12 months. And China will play the role of the villain. Several other players will appreciate it.