One more thought on leadership

Nothing can be taken for granted any longer. Change happens pretty fast and even institutions and systems that looked pretty steady can find themselves under serious challenge. In this type of circumstances, one should always be willing to consider the unexpected and the absurd. That´s in many ways the new approach to leadership: to be able to imagine the unthinkable and have prepared the appropriate answers just in case it happens. 

Hungary and the immigration into the EU

Every passing week shows that the immigration issues are just getting worse in the EU. Hungary, for instance, has been on the news because of the decision to build a wall at the border with Serbia. The barrier should prevent, as much as it is possible, new immigrants from crossing into Hungary and from there moving into Austria, Germany or elsewhere into the richer corners of the EU.

Its construction has started.

We can criticise the decision, of course.

But above all it is an indication that there is no joint policy on immigration within Europe. And it also hides the facts. In 2013, Hungary received about 2 000 requests for asylum. Last year, the figure jumped to 43 000. And this year, it has already gone beyond 83 000. These figures alone give us a better understanding of the size of the problem. They should also be seen as part of the broader picture, meaning, we have in 2015 a true problem in our hands. And no common will to address it.

Turkey and the Kurdish question

The Turkish air raids against the IS terror group are very much welcome. However, the bombing of Kurdish positions in Northern Iraq, linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, also known by its initials PKK, are provoking a serious disquiet within European circles. 

The EU does not see the PKK as a terrorist organization. It changed its position in 2008 and its current approach is to encourage both sides – the Ankara government and PKK – to find a political agreement to their conflict. This should lead to constitutional changes, including some degree of acceptance of the Kurdish people´s rights and Kurdistan as an autonomous entity within Turkey.

There has been a cease-fire since 2013. But that is now under serious risk of falling apart.

In the meantime, it has been announced that the NATO Council will meet on Tuesday at the request of Turkey to discuss IS and also PKK-related matters. It will be important to listen to Ankara´s views. And it would also be critical that such views take into account the opinions of Turkey´s allies.

Turkey has taken the right decisions

The most expected decision has finally been taken by the Turkish President. From now on, the US Air Force is allowed to make use of Turkey´s military airports to launch air raids against IS targets. This will increase the operational capacity of the American planes as the flying distances become much shorter for missions related to Syria.

In addition, President Erdogan has also authorised his own air force to target IS infrastructure in Syria. This is also a very critical decision. If it is properly implemented, it will add a good amount of pressure on the terrorist group.

In the meantime, the neutralization of IS top fighters has gained a new pace. That approach is certainly the most effective way of degrading the capacity of the organization. It requires, however, a new level of intelligence exchange between the allied forces. Particularly a much stronger determination to share from the Turkish side. 

Diversity is a new feature within the EU

Immigration keeps changing the face of Europe. Even in this corner of the EU called Portugal. We have now people that have come from other countries within the EU as well as people that travelled to us from afar. Every day I discover, in the vicinity of my residence, someone that came from a foreign land to work in Portugal.

This is a new reality and people have adjusted to it, in some countries better than in others. But there are serious risks of violent rejection as well.

In the end, the bottom line is about respect and tolerance. Mutual tolerance, of course, from both sides. And also about making sure that opportunistic politicians do not take advantage of immigration issues to create societal divisions and conflicts. They are actually the greatest danger in societies that have a good number of immigrants. 

Against the national extremism within the EU

Ultranationalist sentiments are again threatening the European Union project. And the main stream political parties, in the member states, are not brave enough to fight this trend. They make the mistake of believing that by being silent about extreme nationalism this populist ideology will not gain further ground and will fade away. They also believe that by playing a moderate nationalistic approach they can cut the grass under the feet of the extremist movements. That´s also a very serious political blunder. It does not stop the populists and at the same time it moves the centrist parties closer to xenophobic positions. This is what´s happening these days, in so many parts of the EU.

The solution is very clear: one has to denounce the ultranationalism as an ignominy and also as the cause of deep conflicts in Europe. It is a ghost from the past that no-one needs to resuscitate or should allow to be perceived as the way forward. It is an ideological combat that has to mobilize everyone, not just the elites. 

Somalia is out of the international radar

I was in contact today with a former UN colleague who is now serving in Somalia. And I became deeply worried, as we reviewed the situation in the country.

Al-Shabaab, the terrorist organization that operates in Somalia, remains a major threat. As the situation deteriorates once again, the soldiers from the AU expeditionary force are paying a very heavy toll. They are in Somalia, with a UN-supported mandated, to help in restoring peace but they are the target of repeated vicious attacks. Many African soldiers – recently the Burundians and the Ethiopians lost a good number of military personnel – have been killed. The UN staff, who are basically confined to their compound at the airport, are also in very serious danger.

There is no hope in the air once more.

Somalia is one of those forgotten conflicts that the international community keeps out of the radar. It is out of the news, because it is in many ways an unmanageable and unsolvable conflict. It is also less important for the world powers at present because the piracy issue has been successfully addressed. Therefore, the country is no longer a menace for the interests that matter and its unmeasurable drama can obviously be relegated to a darker corner at the end of the list of priorities. 

Happy to see the US and Cuba back on the diplomatic arena

The US and Cuba are back in the diplomatic business. The embassies are now open and the normalisation process keeps moving in the right direction. That´s good news. The next step ought to be the end of the American embargo against Cuba. It makes no sense to keep it. On the contrary, its lifting has a big chance of contributing to a faster transformation of the Cuban society and politics. My voice joins therefore all the others that call for an end of the sanctions in the very near future. 

Two additional questions about the Middle East

After the agreement on Iran´s nuclear programme, there are two additional questions related to the Middle East that should receive the same amount of attention. They are both related to peace and security in the region. As such, they are vital for a geopolitical space that has known decades of conflict and remains the major focus of international instability.

One of those questions is about fighting violence. What can the UN Security Council and the countries of the region do to bring peace to Syria and Iraq as well as to Yemen? In different words, can we launch a regional conference on peace and security in the Middle East? This is a very central question. It has to be raised and we have to call on the international leaders to take up their responsibilities and dare to initiate such a process.

It cannot be just about peace in country A or B. In this very volatile part of the world we need to look at the future from a regional perspective. The country by country approach has a very limited impact.

The second question is about the Palestinian crisis. The Quartet is not producing any tangible results. The Palestinian issue is just not being properly addressed. We need to ask ourselves what can be done to change the trend and be in a position to initiate a true process that can lead to a durable solution. 

Here, I see a much greater role for the EU. The EU should take the lead. And it has a chance to do it, now that Tony Blair has moved out of the picture. It has also the moral responsibility, to compensate for all the years we have lost with Blair pretending to be around.

Moderation is essential at this stage of the EU affairs

The current political narrative within the EU is led by those with extremist views. The Greek crisis has in many ways contributed to a serious intellectual split. Many have taken the defence of the underdog and are expressing radical opinions against Northern Europe, in general terms, and more specifically towards Germany. This trend is certainly not the best to keep the EU together. It also undermines a tolerant approach to the cultural differences within Europe. It is actually the best way to foment prejudice and hatred.

I am certainly worried by this development.

It is time to show that Europe is still a worthwhile project. And that we are not at all at the deathbed of the common project. To start with, there is a need to better explain the reasons for the approach followed at the last Eurogroup summit. Many people have yet to understand its rationale. We cannot be blind to the damage ignorance causes. Particularly when, on the other side, many people are just adopting a very negative approach or being influenced by those who have an exalted, exaggerated, unrealistic opinion about these matters.