Tunisia and its President

Early in the day, Beji Caid Essebsi, the President of Tunisia, passed away at the age of ninety-two. It would be unjust not to write a word of appreciation for him. At the head of the State since 2014, he has stabilised the country and presided over its democratisation. Tunisia might still have many challenges but remains the country that transformed its Arab Spring into a democracy and a more tolerant and open society. Old man Essebsi played a key role in the process. Old age, in his case, meant wisdom and courage. He deserves a big thank you.

A type of leadership

He knows about theatrics and smoke screens. He is also an expert on mirrors and emotional words, grandiloquence. That works in politics. But does it last? Not really, unless you add to it a continuous use of verbal brutality against your opponents and a strong dose of high-flying nationalism. Then, you have a true leader for the dunces.

I would do the same, I think, if I had a chance. It seems to pay off, isn’t it?

Boris Johnson is in charge

From a diplomatic perspective, the European leaders can only wish every success to Boris Johnson. He won the leadership of his Conservative Party and the British political tradition makes him the next Prime Minister.

This is not a very easy time for the UK, as the country is more divided than ever and must make some very decisive choices. Johnson knows that. His initial steps are particularly important. Above all, the way he approaches the European Union. If he tries the impossible, and a different type of Withdrawal Agreement, based on fantasy, he might end up by stepping into the abyss. I am sure he is aware of that and does not want his premiership to be tainted by economic distress and domestic constitutional crisis. By failure, in a word.

We will see.

In the meantime, the Labour Party is also facing some serious difficulties. Jeremy Corbyn is less and less able to respond to the major challenges the UK is confronted with. Time is defeating him. Now, he must find a sharper way of defining his party’s position. During the next few weeks all the attentions will be focused on the way he responds to the Boris Johnson Cabinet’s initiatives. That’s not a very comfortable position. The one who takes the initiative, if he is smart, is always ahead of the game. To try to catch up – that will be Corbyn’s most likely approach – is not good enough. Corbyn and his party must go beyond responding and be prepared to come up with striking ideas. They must re-capture the people’s attention. That’s not easy when on the other side is standing someone like Johnson.  

The Hormuz crisis must be taken very seriously

The outgoing British Cabinet – a new team will take over on Wednesday, once the new Prime Minister is confirmed – responded today to Iran’s capture of the British tanker with a good combination of firmness and balance. It has demanded the release of the ship and, at the same time, made the announcement that a European naval task force will be dispatched to the Strait of Hormuz to ensure the freedom of navigation.

The British vessel will not be released unless there is a reciprocal action regarding the Iranian ship that has been stopped in Gibraltar two weeks ago. London knows it, they know how the Iranians behave in these situations. Moreover , Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Iranian Foreign Minister, stated that condition very clearly. This is a delicate matter because neither country wants to be perceived as giving up. The solution would be to get both ministers to meet and make an announcement at the end of such meeting, as a compromise between both sides. Here, third-party mediation will not work.

As far as the European task force is concerned, that is a good approach from a political point of view. It keeps the British and the rest of Europe at arm’s length from the US. The Europeans do not agree with the Americans’ stance on Iran and do not want to be subordinated to the US. The real problem, however, is to be able to assemble such a task force fast and effectively. I have some doubts about that possibility.

In the meantime, the matter will remain top of the international agenda. As I wrote yesterday, it calls for a concerted effort to de-escalate. Someone independent enough must take the initiative.

Hormuz: to avert further deterioration

As we start the last week of July, we must be profoundly aware that the situation around the Strait of Hormuz represents an extraordinary menace for peace and security in the region. In addition, if it escalates further it will have a serious impact on the economy of major international players, well beyond the region. Most of the oil the Gulf countries export – close to 85% of it – goes to major Asian economies, to China, India, Japan, Singapore and South Korea.

We need to see a major initiative launched with the objective of de-escalating the confrontation. It should come from the UN, if at all possible. If not, it could be initiated by the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi. His country has high stakes at play and, at the same time, has a voice that matters in the region and the UK.

New approaches to the Armed Forces

This week, we were engaged in a discussion about the future shape and configuration of the armed forces in contexts such as those we find in Europe. The starting point was that tomorrow’s defence will be very different in terms of means and personnel from what we have seen in the past. We should not be preparing for future conflicts the same way we have been doing during the last twenty years or so. Tensions and hostilities will be much more complex than they have been in the past.

I will not go into the details of the discussion this time. I just want to mention that one of the issues was about the participation of the armed forces in domestic security patrolling. Something we saw in recent years in France, above all, but also in Belgium and elsewhere, soldiers walking side by side with the Police – or on their one, no Police personnel being around – in the streets and shopping malls of our cities.

This remains a major point of disputation. I am not in favour. I do not think military personnel should be doing routine patrols that are very much within Police’s territory, unless there is a special emergency. But several senior military officers are for it. And some politicians as well, for reasons that have more to do with political gain than with increased levels of security.

The debate is not closed.

EU foreign policy

The new European Commission will have to think afresh the EU’s foreign policy, including its strategic alliances. The last few years have shown that world is changing fast. The new trends are clear enough for scenario designing. It should not be too difficult to agree on possible world scenarios in five- or ten-years’ time. The Europeans must decide about the kind of role they want to play in international affairs by the end of the incoming Commission’s mandate. And what are the bridges they want to consolidate.

Assessing the Gilets Jaunes

At my conference, this afternoon, I was asked about the Gilets Jaunes, the French demonstrators that took to the streets every Saturday for a long while, starting in November last year. I replied the protest is dead. And I explained that the Gilets Jaunes missed some important criteria that make the citizens’ movements successful. Therefore, they could only fail, it was just a question of time.

One, their objectives were too broad. In addition, besides being too many and shooting in too many directions, the demands kept changing with time. That is a serious mistake.

Two, they were not able to connect with other movements, not even with the trade unions, not to mention the political parties. No connection beyond the group means no alliance and therefore, no success.

Three, they were not aware that to win you should not demonize those who are not participating. You must show you are open to them. If you call them names, they will turn against you.

Four, to be successful, a citizens’ movement must remain non-violent. That is what history teaches us. Acts of violence associated with the movement play against it. The government knew that and was able to play that card well. Just think of the many TV images that were broadcast to show how much violence was associated with the Gilets Jaunes’ rallies.

Five, civic action calls for visible leaders to be the recognisable face of it. That was not the case. Every time a new potential leader emerged, he or she was immediately attacked by many within the Gilets Jaunes crowd.

Six, the government must propose an alternative to the demonstrations. The Macron government invented a “national dialogue”. It took the steam out of many participants and sympathisers in the Gilets Jaunes.

That is my reading, that is what I shared today.

 

Supporting the women fighting discrimination and racism

Today, it is imperative to share a word of support for the US Congresswomen, Democratic Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts.

This is not about interfering with the internal politics of their country. It is about supporting women that fight for the right to represent their constituencies, for equality and the values that are the foundation of the free and just world that we believe in. It is also about their dignity and a serious expression of our appreciation for their courage.

At the same time, we say no to racism and ethnically based violence. 

They are under very serious pressure, coming from one of the most powerful men in the world. But, in the end, in America and many other countries, right will prevail over might.

Responding to President Trump

Some people say that when it comes to the Donald Trump presidency, the right approach for the Europeans is to stay far away. That means to limit the contacts to the formal and the diplomatic exchanges. It is another way of saying, ignore and move on.

I am not sure that is the best response. We are friends and friends should talk in all frankness. If we disagree, we should say it. If we have a different view, who should express it. No need to be either rude or confrontational. But the European leaders should be true to themselves and to their American friends.

Silence will be interpreted as fear. In the end, it will open the gate for more errors and arrogance. Firmness, clarity and elegance are better rejoinders. Both across the Atlantic and for the European citizens as well.