No Deal, soon in a street near you

31 October is not too far away. But it is far enough for us to be able to say what is going to happen to the UK’s Brexit. However, it should be clear, at this stage, that the No Deal is very likely. If, in the end, we get to that point, it is obvious that the relations between the EU and the UK will reach a very low point. It will take a lot of time to recover from such a fall. And that will also have an impact on other forms of cooperation between the two sides. It will certainly be, if it happens, a most defining moment in the history of modern Europe.

The extreme urgency of addressing environmental matters

If there is anything this Summer is teaching us, I would say it is about the urgency of addressing climate change. It has been an abnormal season, in most of Europe and elsewhere. Now, the extensive forest fires in Siberia and other Arctic regions have given us additional evidence we have entered another epoch in human life. Our duty is to join our voices and political pressure to those activists and to the scientists that keeping underlining the gravity of the current trends. The change must occur now, and it ought to be deep and resolute.

We have no longer the luxury of ignoring the issue. And that’s the message that people like Greta Thunberg are fighting for. Now, we must make the politicians and corporations act.

Boris and the crime agenda

As he stepped into his new job of Prime Minister, Boris Johnson promised to recruit 20,000 additional police officers. That number matches the reduction of the police force in England and Wales since March 2010. Many do not find the police service attractive enough anymore, if one considers pay, working hours, duress and the level of risk. And England and Wales have seen the crime rates explode during the last years. London and many other cities are no longer safe places. This remains a major failure of the recent government.

If the new Prime Minister manages to change the security situation, he would have collected a major political prize. If I were in his shoes, I would spend a good deal of my time trying to address the issue. There, as in any other country, the citizen’s safety should be a priority. The citizens want to see the government committed to such task.

This could be a central theme of the future electoral campaign that very soon Boris Johnson will be compelled to call. He wants to leave the EU by 31 October, to take the steam out of the Farage Brexit Party. And then, as soon as he is out, call for fresh elections. But he might have to dissolve the Parliament before 31 October, if the opposition to a No Deal is larger than his own supporters. In any case, elections are in the horizon. Besides Brexit, it seems that security might be the big theme. The only problem is that a No Deal Brexit – and we are now very close to that option – will disrupt so many aspects of the British life that he might be consumed during the electoral campaign by those issues and unable to deal with the security crisis that is going on.

Boris Johnson has interesting times ahead of him. I am not entirely sure he will be able to cope.

Tunisia and its President

Early in the day, Beji Caid Essebsi, the President of Tunisia, passed away at the age of ninety-two. It would be unjust not to write a word of appreciation for him. At the head of the State since 2014, he has stabilised the country and presided over its democratisation. Tunisia might still have many challenges but remains the country that transformed its Arab Spring into a democracy and a more tolerant and open society. Old man Essebsi played a key role in the process. Old age, in his case, meant wisdom and courage. He deserves a big thank you.

A type of leadership

He knows about theatrics and smoke screens. He is also an expert on mirrors and emotional words, grandiloquence. That works in politics. But does it last? Not really, unless you add to it a continuous use of verbal brutality against your opponents and a strong dose of high-flying nationalism. Then, you have a true leader for the dunces.

I would do the same, I think, if I had a chance. It seems to pay off, isn’t it?

Boris Johnson is in charge

From a diplomatic perspective, the European leaders can only wish every success to Boris Johnson. He won the leadership of his Conservative Party and the British political tradition makes him the next Prime Minister.

This is not a very easy time for the UK, as the country is more divided than ever and must make some very decisive choices. Johnson knows that. His initial steps are particularly important. Above all, the way he approaches the European Union. If he tries the impossible, and a different type of Withdrawal Agreement, based on fantasy, he might end up by stepping into the abyss. I am sure he is aware of that and does not want his premiership to be tainted by economic distress and domestic constitutional crisis. By failure, in a word.

We will see.

In the meantime, the Labour Party is also facing some serious difficulties. Jeremy Corbyn is less and less able to respond to the major challenges the UK is confronted with. Time is defeating him. Now, he must find a sharper way of defining his party’s position. During the next few weeks all the attentions will be focused on the way he responds to the Boris Johnson Cabinet’s initiatives. That’s not a very comfortable position. The one who takes the initiative, if he is smart, is always ahead of the game. To try to catch up – that will be Corbyn’s most likely approach – is not good enough. Corbyn and his party must go beyond responding and be prepared to come up with striking ideas. They must re-capture the people’s attention. That’s not easy when on the other side is standing someone like Johnson.  

The Hormuz crisis must be taken very seriously

The outgoing British Cabinet – a new team will take over on Wednesday, once the new Prime Minister is confirmed – responded today to Iran’s capture of the British tanker with a good combination of firmness and balance. It has demanded the release of the ship and, at the same time, made the announcement that a European naval task force will be dispatched to the Strait of Hormuz to ensure the freedom of navigation.

The British vessel will not be released unless there is a reciprocal action regarding the Iranian ship that has been stopped in Gibraltar two weeks ago. London knows it, they know how the Iranians behave in these situations. Moreover , Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Iranian Foreign Minister, stated that condition very clearly. This is a delicate matter because neither country wants to be perceived as giving up. The solution would be to get both ministers to meet and make an announcement at the end of such meeting, as a compromise between both sides. Here, third-party mediation will not work.

As far as the European task force is concerned, that is a good approach from a political point of view. It keeps the British and the rest of Europe at arm’s length from the US. The Europeans do not agree with the Americans’ stance on Iran and do not want to be subordinated to the US. The real problem, however, is to be able to assemble such a task force fast and effectively. I have some doubts about that possibility.

In the meantime, the matter will remain top of the international agenda. As I wrote yesterday, it calls for a concerted effort to de-escalate. Someone independent enough must take the initiative.

Hormuz: to avert further deterioration

As we start the last week of July, we must be profoundly aware that the situation around the Strait of Hormuz represents an extraordinary menace for peace and security in the region. In addition, if it escalates further it will have a serious impact on the economy of major international players, well beyond the region. Most of the oil the Gulf countries export – close to 85% of it – goes to major Asian economies, to China, India, Japan, Singapore and South Korea.

We need to see a major initiative launched with the objective of de-escalating the confrontation. It should come from the UN, if at all possible. If not, it could be initiated by the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi. His country has high stakes at play and, at the same time, has a voice that matters in the region and the UK.

New approaches to the Armed Forces

This week, we were engaged in a discussion about the future shape and configuration of the armed forces in contexts such as those we find in Europe. The starting point was that tomorrow’s defence will be very different in terms of means and personnel from what we have seen in the past. We should not be preparing for future conflicts the same way we have been doing during the last twenty years or so. Tensions and hostilities will be much more complex than they have been in the past.

I will not go into the details of the discussion this time. I just want to mention that one of the issues was about the participation of the armed forces in domestic security patrolling. Something we saw in recent years in France, above all, but also in Belgium and elsewhere, soldiers walking side by side with the Police – or on their one, no Police personnel being around – in the streets and shopping malls of our cities.

This remains a major point of disputation. I am not in favour. I do not think military personnel should be doing routine patrols that are very much within Police’s territory, unless there is a special emergency. But several senior military officers are for it. And some politicians as well, for reasons that have more to do with political gain than with increased levels of security.

The debate is not closed.

EU foreign policy

The new European Commission will have to think afresh the EU’s foreign policy, including its strategic alliances. The last few years have shown that world is changing fast. The new trends are clear enough for scenario designing. It should not be too difficult to agree on possible world scenarios in five- or ten-years’ time. The Europeans must decide about the kind of role they want to play in international affairs by the end of the incoming Commission’s mandate. And what are the bridges they want to consolidate.