Coronavirus at the heart of Europe

It has been a crazy day in the financial markets. All of them were deeply in the red. The coronavirus outbreak in Italy is a little bit the straw that broke the camel’s back. Northern Italy is a wealthy region. It is very well connected to the heart of Europe. And that has generated some serious panic. Now, the response must be the opposite. To keep everyone, calm. To show that we have the means to circumscribe the outbreak. It is not an easy task. But that’s the role we expect the political authorities to play. So far, the Italians and their neighbours are playing the appropriate cards. Let’s hope they will keep doing it. If any of them decides to restrict the border crossings that will send a very negative signal to the public opinion.

Italy's immediate challenge

As we start the last week of February, the key issue in our part of the world is the outbreak of coronavirus in Northern Italy. In the last forty-eight hours the number of infected cases has grown fast. About ten towns in the Lombardy and Veneto regions have been placed under quarantine measures. Major events, such as the Venice Carnival, have been cancelled. And, above all, there is no objective information about the way the disease has spread in that part of Italy. That must be investigated as a matter of priority. Besides that, the test for the next twenty-four hours is about the progression of the infections, particularly to see if there are new cases outside the areas that have now been placed under control. Let’s hope that will not be the case.

The Dalai Lama

Today marks the 80^th anniversary of the Dalai Lama’s enthronement as the spiritual leader of the Tibetans. He has been a leading person in terms of a wise approach to life and peace among the nations. He won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989.

He has also been a living reminder of Tibet’s fate under the Communist Chinese rule. During the last ten years or so, Beijing has been actively lobbying European and other countries not to receive the Dalai Lama as an official guest. That policy has shown some results. But it is also true that the Dalai Lama is now an elderly man – 84 years old – and he himself has decided to seriously reduce his travel schedule.

There are hundreds of Dalai Lama’s quotes available online. One I would like to remember today says: “The planet does not need more successful people. The planet desperately needs more peacemakers, healers, restorers, storytellers, and lovers of all kinds.”

About the intelligence work

During my professional life I had to interact with intelligence personnel. Most of them were very bright people, others were just good at collecting information but not particularly skilled at transforming that information into intelligence, meaning, into proper assessments and sets of assumptions. But the most important thing I have learned is that intelligence is a line of work that requires independence. The staff must feel they are not pressurised in any direction. They must come to the best conclusion they can produce. If the analysis and assumptions are influenced by partisan considerations, they no longer are fully credible. They lose value and can only be used to justify political mistakes and biased decisions. Unfortunately, that happens quite often, thanks to the interference of the political leaders.

Bloomberg's poor beginning

Michael Bloomberg might have learned a key lesson last night, when assessing his performance during the Nevada Democratic Debate: a presidential race in the United States is a complex matter. It is not enough to have money, plenty of it. One also needs to convince the voters and, above all, to be perceived as presidential material. To be an extremely successful businessperson is not enough. The race is about representativeness and political banners. It is also about emotions and the capacity to create a few great ideals.

Bloomberg came out of the debate weaker. He must find a flame within himself to be able to recover the ground he lost. Unfortunately, money cannot buy that inner fire he seems to lack.

Idlib and the divided Security Council

The UN Security Council today met on Syria. One more meeting for nothing. The humanitarian situation in the Idlib Province is desperate for around 900,000 people, many of them children. That was one of the reasons for the meeting. The other is that a growing military offensive is under way. The leadership in Damascus is convinced that they can win and retake the province. For Assad, there is only one solution to the rebellion, a military one. His allies, the Russians, share the same view. And that is what is being implemented.

The Council could have adopted a resolution calling for a ceasefire. It did not happen. The Russians have opposed it. The only thing the Council did was to recall the peace process it had approved four years ago, in December 2015, and insist on its implementation. That’s a ridiculous approach. Today’s situation is very different from the one in 2015. For instance, now there is a heavy involvement of Turkey in this corner of Syria. There is a serious risk of clashes, even confrontation, between the two sides. That means, there is an enormous potential for escalation. That and the humanitarian crisis are the two dimensions that require immediate attention.

But the UN Security Council is too divided. The bet must be placed in another forum.

France and radical Islam

Radical Islam is being taught in several mosques of France. The preachers are paid by countries such as Turkey or Algeria. In most of the cases, they do not speak French, or just a few words, do not know the laws of the country and have an approach to civic life that is not compatible with the accepted practices. The Ministry of Education has no authority over such schools.

All this divides the French society. The children that go through such system are not prepared to integrate the wider society. They feel they do not belong, which is one of the most damaging feelings one can have vis-à-vis his or her own country. And many citizens end up by developing a strong bias against such system and Islam in general. They end up by voting for extreme right parties.

President Macron today addressed the issue. He said it is time to bring the State into such system and make sure that the preachers understand that France is a lay republic, where the laws do not discriminate people because of their religious beliefs or lack of them. His words have shown that one the most difficult communities to deal with is the one linked to Turkey. The Turkish government keeps sending imams to France without any consultation with the French government. And those imams are more interested in keeping their students linked to Turkey than anything else. That creates a serious division in society.

The mass immigration is a fact of life in France and in many other European countries. However, it cannot be a cause for significant cultural fractures in the host countries. Our countries have a set of values that were built along the path of history. They are the mainstream cultural cement that keeps our societies together. It would be a serious negligence not to protect those values. It would certainly open the door to dramatic conflicts within our own borders.

Let’s see what Emmanuel Macron will be able to change. This is important for France and for others within the EU.

Idlib and its humanitarian tragedy

Today, I must write about the situation in the Idlib Province of Syria. Following the military operations ordered by President Bashar al-Assad and supported by the Russian air force, there is a major humanitarian crisis in Idlib. Hundreds of thousands of people – the more accurate figure must be close to a million – are just caught in between the advancing regime forces and the border with Turkey, that remains closed. These people require urgent assistance. The UN and the key NGOs could provide much of needed help but can’t operate when there are bombardments going on. We must advocate for a temporary halt. And let the civilians move on.

This tragedy should be brought to the attention of the UN Security Council. I have no illusion about the Council. But I think the European countries that sit in the Council should urgently table the situation. That’s a moral move. A necessary one. It might also get us to a short humanitarian window of opportunity.

The US presidential election

On this side of the Atlantic Ocean, we can’t say much about the US presidential campaign that has started to roll on. But we watch with studious interest some of the key candidates on the Democratic side. On the Republican side there is nothing to see. Donald Trump is the candidate and he will fight with his usual bravado, and contempt, to keep the presidency. Concerning the Democrats, there is a lot to keep us interested during the coming weeks. Including, of course, Michael Bloomberg. The question he raises is very simple: how much support can a billionaire buy? At this stage, there is no real answer. But he will attract a good deal of attention and lots of fire, from all sides.  

The Munich Conference and the European views

The US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, addressed the Munich Security Conference today. His line was very clear: the US has not moved away from supporting the European Defence, they remain even more engaged than before. In addition, he expressed the conviction that West is winning in the international arena.

His speech did not generate a lot of enthusiasm. Actually, the participants ‘reaction was very subdued. Polite, but not convinced. The audience’s quietness has shown that the Europeans have serious disagreements about the current Administration’s international politics, including the way it relates to Europe. Among other things, they judge that President Trump is not sincerely committed to collective defence. The NATO exercises, including the large one that is about to start, called DEFENDER-Europe 20, are perceived more as training opportunities for the American troops and less as a demonstration of unity among the allies. Also, those listening to Mr Pompeo have some problems to understand some of President Trump’s approaches to international affairs, in particularly, when it comes to Russia.

Furthermore, the “winning” view expressed by the Secretary of State is not shared by the European leaders. President Macron said it soon after the Pompeo speech. But it is not just the French President that espouses that stance. The German President had stated the same view yesterday, at the opening of the conference.

I take four main points from all of this. First, it is important to continue to assert the European commitment to the alliance with the US. Second, the Europeans should state their views with clarity, particularly when they do not coincide with the decisions and comments coming from Washington. Third, the EU must keep investing on joint military and defence projects. This investment should bring together as many EU countries as possible, knowing that it will not be possible to get all of them to step in, and should be presented as the European pillar of the NATO effort. Fourth, Europe must reach a modus vivendi with Russia and China, that considers the European interests but is not naïve. Russia is our immediate neighbour, which means we must agree on keeping the bordering space between them and us safe and prosperous. China, on the other hand, is a major power in the making. Europe cannot have an indifferent position towards it.