A challenging March

As we get into March, we can be sure we will have major challenges in front of us. The coronavirus will probably be the most critical. It has all the key ingredients to confuse many of us. People will keep pressing the panic button and the political leaders will be jumping in all directions, just to show to the citizens that they are moving as required. Then, there will be the economic impact. On the economic side, the crisis can be multifaceted. There will be less demand, the supply chains will be disrupted, and many enterprises will face serious cash problems. In addition, the stocks will not be able to recover the immense value that has been lost during the past week and probably the week ahead.

Obviously, the health systems will be under serious stress. They will become distorted as much of the resources will be focused on the Covid-19 pandemic.

Adding to the above, we will see an escalation of the conflict between Turkey and Syria, supported by Russia, a new migratory crisis and a Brexit on the rocks.

This is a time that calls for a new type of leadership.

The Taliban deal

I see the deal signed today in Doha, Qatar, between the U.S. Administration and the medieval armed group that is known as the Taliban of Afghanistan, a terrorist organization, as follows:

1.  It gives the Taliban a good amount of legitimacy and political standing. Both within their country and in the international arena. It is therefore a victorious move for them. It puts the Taliban in a much stronger position than the national government.

2. It is an electoral manoeuvre played by the U.S. President. Donald Trump wants to be able to claim, during the coming months leading to the November Presidential election, that he brought the war in Afghanistan to an end.  Or, at least, that he brought the American soldiers back home from a protracted foreign conflict.

3.  It will not lead to inter-Afghan peace negotiations. The deal was not discussed with the legitimate government in Kabul and it is not seen by its leaders as a commitment they own. The official government will keep fighting the Taliban.

4.  It does not include a justice and reconciliation approach. The atrocities the Taliban are responsible for are just ignored.

5.  It encourages other Islamist groups in other parts of the world to keep fighting.

6.  It took the American allies also deployed in Afghanistan, under the NATO-banner called Resolute Support Mission, for granted. They were not part of the process. They are just supposed to follow suit. Those NATO allies have about 16,000 troops on the ground.

Assad and Erdogan meet in Idlib

Bashar al-Assad of Syria and his Russian friends have been planning the Idlib campaign since December. He does not know about negotiations and compromises. Assad only understands the language of force, the crushing of his opponents. Therefore, he can only trust what comes from a military victory. His Russian supporters follow the same political philosophy. Politics is about absolute power. That’s why all of them are so committed to the Idlib war campaign.

The Russians control the air space. That gives a major advantage to Assad’s troops. They follow the bombings and complete the groundwork. The civilian population is caught in between the bombs – they fall all over, including on hospitals and school buildings – and the foot soldiers. People are also trapped by the rebel groups that have sought a final refuge in the province. The result is widespread human agony, disruption, and death.

The Turkish army has deployed to the province as well. They have about twelve positions in this corner of Syria. That was President Erdogan’s decision. He thought the Syrian army and the Russians would refrain from attacking Idlib because of the Turkish presence. And that would help the rebel groups that are allied to the Turks. In addition, it would keep the internal displacements to a minimum. Mistake. The military offensive keeps moving forward, the populations are displaced and trying to beat death daily. And now, the Turkish soldiers are being targeted as well. They will remain in Assad’s crosshairs. Assad knows he can count on Vladimir Putin’s backing. He also knows that Erdogan has very few powerful friends in the international circles. Erdogan’s ambition and arrogance ended up by isolating him.

Erdogan has only one option. To withdraw from Idlib and let the local refugees cross into his country. The rebels will come along with them to escape the Assad troops. And soon or later the confrontation will resume.

The coronavirus and the presidential election

Yesterday, Vice-President Mike Pence was put in charge. Today, we understand what President Trump had in mind. His main concern is to control the narrative. The President does not want to hear anything negative about his future handling of the crisis. He knows that sooner or later the epidemic will hit the country and is determined to ensure the official statements coming from his Administration do not challenge his handling of the response. Public health and treatment affordability are key electoral issues.

Just about Idlib in Syria

We cannot forget the human crisis that is taking place in the Idlib Province of Syria. The international headlines have been focused on the coronavirus epidemic. When that happens, the media becomes too obsessed with one theme, that is treated from every angle and with plenty of unnecessary details and erases other major issues from the screen. Idlib should remain within our radar. There is tremendous suffering going on over there.

Don't panic and be prepared

The coronavirus is impacting the world economy in an extraordinary manner. Yesterday and today, the financial markets lost trillions of dollars. That’s about real people’s money as well as pension funds and other institutional investors. That’s wealth that simply evaporates. Every time a new person is found sick, here and there, specially in the most developed economies, that sends a shockwave across the markets. There is a massive reaction because the world has become a village and people are constantly on the move. Besides that, what is produced here needs components from afar and a supply chain that crosses half of the planet.

The key point at this stage is to be able to show to the public opinion that the epidemic can be contained. In addition, it is important to underline that most of the cases can be easily treated in the right hospital environment. Panic would bring a major global crisis.

Coronavirus at the heart of Europe

It has been a crazy day in the financial markets. All of them were deeply in the red. The coronavirus outbreak in Italy is a little bit the straw that broke the camel’s back. Northern Italy is a wealthy region. It is very well connected to the heart of Europe. And that has generated some serious panic. Now, the response must be the opposite. To keep everyone, calm. To show that we have the means to circumscribe the outbreak. It is not an easy task. But that’s the role we expect the political authorities to play. So far, the Italians and their neighbours are playing the appropriate cards. Let’s hope they will keep doing it. If any of them decides to restrict the border crossings that will send a very negative signal to the public opinion.

Italy's immediate challenge

As we start the last week of February, the key issue in our part of the world is the outbreak of coronavirus in Northern Italy. In the last forty-eight hours the number of infected cases has grown fast. About ten towns in the Lombardy and Veneto regions have been placed under quarantine measures. Major events, such as the Venice Carnival, have been cancelled. And, above all, there is no objective information about the way the disease has spread in that part of Italy. That must be investigated as a matter of priority. Besides that, the test for the next twenty-four hours is about the progression of the infections, particularly to see if there are new cases outside the areas that have now been placed under control. Let’s hope that will not be the case.

The Dalai Lama

Today marks the 80^th anniversary of the Dalai Lama’s enthronement as the spiritual leader of the Tibetans. He has been a leading person in terms of a wise approach to life and peace among the nations. He won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989.

He has also been a living reminder of Tibet’s fate under the Communist Chinese rule. During the last ten years or so, Beijing has been actively lobbying European and other countries not to receive the Dalai Lama as an official guest. That policy has shown some results. But it is also true that the Dalai Lama is now an elderly man – 84 years old – and he himself has decided to seriously reduce his travel schedule.

There are hundreds of Dalai Lama’s quotes available online. One I would like to remember today says: “The planet does not need more successful people. The planet desperately needs more peacemakers, healers, restorers, storytellers, and lovers of all kinds.”

About the intelligence work

During my professional life I had to interact with intelligence personnel. Most of them were very bright people, others were just good at collecting information but not particularly skilled at transforming that information into intelligence, meaning, into proper assessments and sets of assumptions. But the most important thing I have learned is that intelligence is a line of work that requires independence. The staff must feel they are not pressurised in any direction. They must come to the best conclusion they can produce. If the analysis and assumptions are influenced by partisan considerations, they no longer are fully credible. They lose value and can only be used to justify political mistakes and biased decisions. Unfortunately, that happens quite often, thanks to the interference of the political leaders.