Africa´s liberation

We should celebrate every time a dictator falls because of popular demonstrations. In the end, dictatorship, abuse of power, human rights violations and absence of freedom are among the worst things that can happen to a population. And when they are associated with widespread poverty and lack of economic opportunities, we have a catastrophic scenario. A nightmare, as they say.

That´s the case in several African countries. Therefore, today´s fall of the Big Man in Burkina Faso is good news for all the oppressed in many other places of the Continent. It shows that there is hope. It also shows that people on the streets in large numbers make history. 

Burkina Faso is a land of noble people

Burkina Faso is a fascinating country in the Sahel. Its people are very dynamic. Many citizens, particularly the urban youth, are very well educated. But like many countries in its part of the world, unemployment and lack of economic opportunities is a major feature. Young people go to school and from there go the streets, trying to scrap a living out of very little things.

The President and the elite have become very disconnected from the men and women on the streets. They live in relatively opulence and like to show it. Power has corrupted the leaders, starting with the President and his closer supporters. The President himself, a man who came to power after the assassination of his close friend Thomas Sankara, 27 years ago, - and some have always claimed that he is the one who killed Sankara, an idealist that was trying to change the country into a better place – is a very rich man. He believes he cannot leave the seat of power. He is afraid of investigations on his past actions, including the events of 27 years ago.

He tried to change the Constitution to remain President for the foreseeable future. His friends and also his adversaries told him that was a very serious mistake. People would not accept it.

Tonight, hiding somewhere, he might be thinking that the advice given to him was in the end the right one. But it is now too late for him, I believe.  

Living in Beijing

Beijing is a fascinating place, a friend of mine who lives there told me today. I am sure it is. But if you do not speak Mandarin, as it is his case, you lose most of it. You live just in the margins of life as it happens in that big city. And you feel very small, just an ethnically minuscule dot in a society that has very little respect for Westerners. And you also live in an illusory world, far disconnected from a society that is profoundly different and extremely materialistic. 

Justice and participation are key values of today

In a discussion today about armed conflicts, rebellions, terrorist activity and violence in general, the issues of injustice and human insecurity did not receive enough attention. They should be at the centre of the preoccupations. People want to feel safe, that´s a very basic and fundamental feeling. And in today´s world there is also a lot of attention being paid to social justice. We all want to see good behaviour being rewarded and bad actions being punished, including all abuses of power and political office. Related to that, no one wants to feel he or she does not matter. People want to be taken into account. They want to see inclusion as a guiding value and to have the opportunity to participate, to be heard. Everyone should matter, that´s the way presently we see the world. Exclusion is an injustice, in the eyes of today´s younger generations. And it is not accepted. 

Dilma´s challenges

Dilma Rousseff has been re-elected President of Brazil. It was a tough campaign and many people in the country thought she would not make it. She had created quite a number of die-hard opponents, particularly among the urban middle class and the riches segments of the nation. But the country remains above all a socially divided society, with large numbers of very poor and excluded people. They are the ones that constitute the electoral basis of Dilma. And to be frank, it is better they feel represented. That´s Dilma´s card. But it is also the card of all those who are better off. They cannot afford to have a large number of people below the poverty line and dis-empowered. It is not safe, it is not a solid ground for stability.

Dilma´s job now is to respond to the aspirations of the largest number of people including those that have voted against her and do not like her administration at all. She has to be seen as inclusive, and able to fight corruption. But above all, she has to be seen as a leader that can promote growth and greater equality in a country that is not growing fast enough, notwithstanding its possibilities, and that is deeply unequal. Can she do the job?

   

UK´s dilemma and Cameron´s mess

David Cameron´s European policy is in disarray. And now, with the new demands coming from Brussels for additional payments into the common budget, justified by the revision of the national accounts in every State of the Union, and with Angela Merkel criticising the British Prime Minister´s stance on immigration, the matter has become even worse. I do not see at this stage any way out for the Conservatives but to be openly advocating for a Britain outside the EU. This could bring them some votes in the forthcoming general elections, they believe. The only problem is that such a position runs against the interests of the Conservative top funders. And in many ways, against Cameron´s own understanding of British long-term interests. It is a major dilemma. Cameron´s dilemma. 

Ebola as a biological weapon?

The collective hysteria around Ebola is such that some people are already talking about the possibility of “enemy forces” being engaged in capturing the virus to make future use of it as a biological weapon. This is taking us too far. Why? What are we trying to achieve with such unfounded rumour?

And it is also a distraction when the main objective should remain to help West Africa to fight the epidemic. 

Juncker´s challenge

Jean-Claude Juncker has won the vote at the European Parliament. He managed to get the support of a very large grand coalition of centre-right and centre-left MEPs. The way he addressed them was consistent with the process he led up to this day: being smart, saying the things that are mainstream, and paying attention to those who matter. He lost little time on extremists, on anti-EU MEPs, on all those that would vote in any case against him. His vast European experience gave him a strong advantage as well. He knows the issues better than any of the deputies in the EU Parliament.

His mandate will start on November 1. The expectations of the EU citizens are pretty low at the moment. Therefore, Juncker starts from a favourable ground. He just needs to adopt, sooner after taking office, one or two actions that could be perceived by the Europeans as new, a change.

But his time in office will run through a difficult time for the EU. The challenges ahead are immense. Maybe the biggest one will be to keep the Union together. Today more than ever the future on the EU is at risk. His experience might be of great help in trying to achieve the required and missing cohesiveness.

   

Denis Mukwege deserves the recognition

The Congolese medical doctor Denis Mukwege is this year´s laureate of Europe´s Sakharov Prize. This great honour recognises Dr Mukwege´s work in Eastern Congo in support of women and girls that have been victims of mass rape. Rape is in that part of Africa a weapon of terror. Women and girls are caught in between the rebel groups and the government forces and end up by paying a terrible price. Dr Mukwege has been their medical helper, both also their voice and advocate. He has done it with great bravery and a very strong sense of duty.

Today we can only say that this year´s Sakharov Prize, decided by the European Parliament, makes justice to a great African.

It also calls the world´s attention to the plight of women and children in conflict situations. It is in many ways an appeal for more action against that type of violence. 

Ebola: Bring the resources to West Africa

I wrote my bi-weekly column to the Portuguese magazine Visão this morning. Everybody is writing about Ebola these days. I also did. It is the second time in recent weeks that I focus on this matter. I just felt it was necessary once more to emphasize that the fight against the epidemic ought to be fought in West Africa. Rich countries and permanent members of the UN Security Council have the duty of assistance. They should make all types of resources available. The disease has crushed the response capacities of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone. These countries are in need of immediate help. And it is the duty of the developed world to assist. International solidarity is a key pillar of the new international order. We should insist on that. And also on the fact that we are saving lives. For now, it is the lives of West Africans. That´s a strong reason. But later on, if we are late to act, it could be our own lives, in our part of the world. And that´s also a strong reason for us to move without any further delay. 

Nigeria: can we believe there is an agreement with Boko Haram?

Knowing as I know the players, I am afraid the announcement made by the Nigerian presidency regarding an accord with Boko Haram might just be wishful thinking, at best. But it can even be worse than that. It can just be a deceitful statement at a time the electoral fever is about to start.

The next few days will tell. 

Arrogance in politics is so common

In politics it is a grave mistake to confuse arrogance with firmness. Arrogance leads to disaster. It narrows down your analytical capacity. It puts everybody else off and makes you an easy target. Firmness, on the other hand, reveals leadership and inspires confidence. It makes people believe you know what you are up to. It sends the message that you are a person of courage, ready to fight for your views. And that’s one of the best signals a politician can communicate. 

Credible leadership is missing

There aren´t enough reasonable voices around. The current circumstances require leaders that speak clearly and give sense and hope in response to destabilising events. Leaders that are good at inspiring confidence. We are confronted with exceptional times and have very ordinary and soulless individuals at the helm. 

Dilma´s political future is at stake

Dilma Rousseff, Brazil´s head of State, is fighting for her political future.

The second round of the presidential elections will take place in about eleven days, on October 26. The odds are playing against Dilma. Her party has been in power for the last twelve years. It is strongly embedded in the administrative apparatus and it has also a solid support in the poorer segments of the country. But at a time of economic slowdown, as it is today the case in Brazil, when public resources have become scarcer, it is easy to put the blame on the government and vote against those in power. On top of that, large sectors of the urban and better educated Brazilians are today against Dilma´s party and her control of the administrative machinery. They are basically afraid of Dilma´s interventionist policies, of new taxes, and they want change.

In many ways, the Brazilian society is today much polarised. And less solidary. Class plays a defining role. And individualism, personal success, is also a common trait in a country that prides itself for its self-made men and women. Many do not understand the social policies Dilma´s party has implemented in favour of the poor.

All that runs objectively against a candidate that is identified with a strong option for a more redistributive social policy.

I am afraid Dilma might be the loser at the end of the day, on the 26^th. 

Turkey and its approach to the Islamic State bandits

Just a very simple question: what is Turkey doing to fight the terrorists that call themselves the Islamic State? The Turkish government is indeed very difficult to understand. 

Near Lisbon there is plenty to visit

As I drove around the greater Lisbon area I came to the conclusion that there are still many places near the Portuguese capital that are of great interest for a visitor. They should be better talked about. Sintra and Cascais are well known. They attract a good number of foreign visitors.  But there are other places, such as Ericeira by the sea or Mafra and its convent and rural landscapes that good be better publicised. Including for their cuisine and the variety of the landscapes.

Tourism is very much about the way you talk about your region. It is also about making sure you offer quality at a reasonable price. And it is nowadays, during the off-season, about being able to catch the attention of the retirees from elsewhere. They are a very important segment of the market during the low season. Things need to be organised to cater for their interests. 

Argentinian blues...

Argentina is again in the midst of economic and financial chaos. People are desperate and the country seems to be directionless.

I raised the issue this morning as part of my regular discussions with some people at the centre of European decision making. I was told, in very direct and brief words, that Argentina matters very little in international affairs. If they have a problem – and they do have some very serious ones, I thought to myself –then it is up to them to sort them out.

I believe that´s what people call internationalist realism…

Hong Kong is different

The Hong Kong mass demonstrations show once again that people cherish their freedom once they have been able to acquire it. Freedom is one of the top aspirations of humankind.

The political pact that underwrites stability and state control in China is based on growing well-being for the people. The Chinese accept at this stage, not always with a warm heart, that their liberty be curtailed as long as the government keeps the economic expansion and is in a position to augment the population´s purchasing power.

In Hong Kong, the standard of living is much higher than in Mainland China. Therefore, that part of the pact has very attraction. People are already there, they are wealthy. But they have also enjoyed political freedom. And they do not want to lose it. Once you have tasted it you want to keep it.

Furthermore, the people of Hong Kong have a serious dislike for the Mainlanders. They look at their fellow compatriots from Mainland China with a deep, open feeling of superiority. Hong Kong citizens complaint about the other Chinese by saying they are greedy, dishonest, uneducated and too narrow-minded. That feeling is quite perceptible when you talk to the people in Hong Kong. If you tell them that you are planning to visit the Mainland, as I did, they will keep warning you about the cheating you might be subject to once you have crossed the border.

The Beijing authorities know they cannot send the army to deal with the street protests in Hong Kong. They would like the demonstrators to take a false step and try to invade the administrative buildings in the city. But that seems not to be the case. So, Beijing will wait. They know that the streets will get tired and the demonstrations will end up by fading away. That will probably be the case.

But Beijing also knows that the people of Hong Kong do not want the kind of political dispensation that prevails in the Mainland. And that´s a very strong message.