EU Global Strategy: an initial comment

The EU High Representative has now presented to the Heads of State and Government the new “Global Strategy”.

I have seen the document but still need to digest the contents. My initial reaction is that the strategy is placing too much emphasis on EU´s role on defence. That might be a huge mistake.

First, because in matters of defence the key goal should be to strengthen the European nations ´capabilities within NATO. That´s the existing commitment, made at the last NATO summit meeting, and also that´s the only way for the Europeans to be able to leverage the US and Turkey´s powerful military machineries. They need to create and combine additional capacity with the extraordinary capacity non-EU NATO members have, particularly the US.

Second, the EU States have to take into account the new situation of the UK. It is unquestionable this country has the best European army. But it will outside the EU in the medium term. They will no longer be part of any EU defence arrangement. To take advantage of their power can only occur elsewhere, not within the EU. Elsewhere means to have to look into NATO´s direction again.

The Spanish elections: Act 2

Once again the opinion polls were wrong. This time they missed the picture in the Spanish general elections. The forecasts and the final results belong to two different worlds. And this raises a definitive question: the sampling methods are outdated. The polls as they are presently carried out can´t be trusted anymore. A new type of pre-electoral analysis is required. We have an opening here.

Regarding the elections outcome, outgoing Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy should be congratulated. His party, in the centre-right of the political spectrum, did much better than expected. But the number of seats he got is not enough to have a majority. In the circumstances, he would prefer to lead a grand coalition that would bring together his party, the Socialists and the citizens’ movement of liberal inspiration, known as Ciudadanos.

I do not think that will happen. In the end, Rajoy will have to govern alone, and hope the Socialists will let him move on and stay in charge. That´s a very precarious arrangement. It will not last. Basically, as I see it, we will have general elections again any time in the second half of 2017. 

Brexit: the days after

So, my guess of yesterday was wrong. The “quitters” won. And I felt a bit of fool because I had reached that same conclusion long ago that Brexit would take over. I thought so for a good deal of time and only changed my mind during the very last stretch of the process, influenced I was by the bookmakers and the financial analysts and other stock market gurus.

Well, that´s how it is now.

But one should raise the question, once again, about the professional competence of the financial analysts. They are paid fortunes, they work in large teams, they have all the information and techniques, and then they end up by messing up.

The polls were also wrong. It was less surprising though as this was a vote of a unique type and there were little past references to guide the extrapolations.

It´s true that the score came as a big surprise. Many of my British friends were simply shocked. They work in international places and could not understand the choice made by the majority of the voters.

That´s democracy.

Now, the point is for the EU to prepare very well for the negotiations with the UK. On the European side, it is important to have a clear understanding about the EU´s interests and be resolute in their defence. It is also important to show that this is a true and tough negotiation. The people in the different corners of Europe have to see this discussions as exemplary.

It is also critical to rethink the relationship between the EU institutions and the citizens. It´s time to take this matter seriously, well beyond grandiloquent declarations and be able to show that the institutions are dealing with the issues that matter for the citizen. There is a need for narrow focus, good communications and political courage. 

The referendum outcome

My intention is to write these words before the first results start coming out of the British polling stations. Just to say that for many weeks I thought –and anguished – the exit response would win the day and the UK would vote for the exit from the EU. And then, during the last couple of days or so, I began to believe that the Remain vote could gain the upper hand. And I am still convinced that will be the case.

In a few hours, I will know the answer to my guess. 

A divided Britain

I watched this evening´s BBC debate on the UK´s European referendum. And I was very impressed by two of the Remain supporters: the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, a Labour politician, and the Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson. They are excellent debaters and, being still relatively young, they are rising stars. Both will certainly have a lot to contribute to their country´s political life. Their main opponent was Boris Johnson, the Conservative sacred bull, a very well informed and smart fellow, and also an excellent orator. But he comes out as disingenuous, as someone who is above all self-centred and concerned with taking advantage of any opportunity to advance his own ambitions.

The debate was a bitter one. This has been an extremely divisive time for the UK. It has turned political friends into acrimonious enemies. Whatever the outcome of the vote on Thursday – I hope it will be in favour of keeping the EU membership – the British political landscape will come out radically changed. A new type of alliances will be formed within the key political parties. And half of the country will feel terribly left behind. That´s certainly not good. 

Germany and NATO

Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German Foreign Minister, is an important player in European affairs. Thus, it is always wise to listen to his public statements. Tomorrow´s edition of the Bild am Sonntag newspaper will carry an interview with him. As I get to understand it, the Minister seems critical of the current approach NATO is following on Russia. He recognises the relations with Moscow are not good at all. But he thinks that escalating NATO´s military presence in Poland and the Baltic States is not the answer.

That´s an interesting position. It is obviously contrary to the current policy options within the Alliance. Moreover, Steinmeier has been aware for a good deal of time of the ongoing exercises that NATO is implementing in Poland and in the vicinity of Russia. Why did he consider necessary wait so long before stating his views? Why are those views expressed through an interview and not in the more reserved decision-making forums that are available? What should be the reading of such a position at this stage? And a few more questions, of course.

Trump is a dangerous candidate

I watched Donal Trump´s speech on Orlando´s tragedy. That was the day after the heart-breaking act of extreme folly. He had hence time to organise his thoughts and decide on the messages. And what came out should be seen as a very dangerous approach to peaceful relations between diverse communities, at the domestic level, and also to international affairs. Dangerous because the speech was well delivered and could be easily understood by those who have a primary approach to life in America. And seen as convincing. Dangerous because it put across the absurd belief that Muslims in the US know about terrorist intentions and radical people but keep quiet. Dangerous because it was about open confrontation and stigmatisation. Dangerous again because it was about lies, including about the President, who has been very active in the fight against terrorism in many parts of the world, including through the controversial drone killing programme. And above all, it was a excellent reminder that Trump is a danger himself, and should not be allowed to get going without being seriously challenged, particularly by those within the leadership of his own party. 

Hillary Clinton

It is now certain that Hillary Clinton will be the democratic presidential nominee. That´s great news and also pretty reassuring. And one should also underline the excellent results she achieved in California, a key state. That has shown she can mobilize strong support in a dynamic, complex and varied state. I can only wish her well and above all the wisdom to keep saying the right things and be in a position to bring a large number of voters under her banner. She has to be able to win the election in November. The other option would be, sooner or later, a disaster for the US and also for those in the Western world. Let´s have no doubt about it. And also be clear and state it without any type of ambiguity. 

Brexit and the bookies´game

The British bookmakers are witnessing a switch in the bets towards the Brexit. In the last two days, over 70% of the new bets were placed on Britain leaving the EU. This is the new trend. Up to now, most of the game was about smart money going to Remain. That´s changing. But it is also true that there is still a good number of voters that say they are undecided when they answer to polls on the referendum. They represent about 11% of those surveyed. They will make the difference. The campaigns are targeting them as well as those who might feel lazy on the polling day and therefore decide to stay home. All in all, at this stage the risk of a Brexit is real. And Brussels is now getting very nervous about it. Including the British officials employed in the EU institutions.

Floods, demonstrations and media attention

The floods in and around Paris and other areas have washed away from the news the strikes and other demonstrations that had made the headlines prior to these natural calamities. And mass action without plenty of pictures on TV loses speed and strength. But the issues are still on the table and we can expect the protests to come back once the waters have receded. But the momentum will no longer be the same. Furthermore, with the Euro football matches about to kick off, there will be further competition for media space. In addition, we will hear a number of voices calling for restraint during the championship. The government should take advantage of this quieter period to better communicate its policies and their context. That has to be done with a different kind of skills, in a more conciliatory and patient tone, not with the intransigent way of speaking we have seen the Prime Minister making use of. 

On the Brexit high risk

Here, in Europe, the agenda for the next three weeks should be focussed on the British referendum. There is a serious risk of Brexit. To think otherwise is dramatically foolish.

This type of vote, this referendum, is not about the economy. The economic arguments are certainly very compelling and strongly support the Remain position, but they are not the key consideration people keep in mind when deciding about their choice. This is about the most irrational part of emotive politics, it´s about nationalistic feelings and myths, and the old time believe that the British are different from the other Europeans. It has to be dealt with at that level of passion. With strong political arguments, and a clear response to the prevailing prejudices. That´s not easy. The Brexit talk is much easier, much closer to many of the existing phantoms that populate a good number of minds. And that´s why the risk is so high.