A new situation in North Africa

The hostage situation in Algeria, with the kidnapping of many foreigners, from different nationalities, by an al-Qaeda inspired group, opens a new phase in the security crisis in that part of North Africa as well as other areas surrounding Mali. All of sudden governments from outside the region are realising that their interests in the gas and oil fields in Algeria and the vicinity could be under very serious threat. This can deeply affect the functioning of the many fields and lead to a significant decrease in the production levels.

French pessimism

Quoting from today's Eurointelligence daily bulletin:

French more pessimistic about the future

According to the annual poll of Opinionway  cited by Les Echos the French are more pessimistic than ever about their future, hardly believe that the young will do better than their parents,  and that the politicians can handle the crisis or do anything about their concerns. 

66% of the polled prefer experts rather than politicians to decide on what is best for the country, while 46% believe that France has to protect itself against today’s world. Only hospitals (82%) and the police (62%) have the confidence of the polled. There is also one surprising result: 53% want the state to give companies more freedom, and the private company is the only organisation which gains in confidence.

Mali, Algeria and the EU

The events in Mali, especially the French deployment, have brought that part of the world back to the agenda in Brussels and other EU capitals. This is good news because there was no way the West African states alone – even with some “technical support” from a couple of external partners – could be in a position to put together a military force capable of fighting the rebel groups operating in Northern Mali. Most of West Africa has very weak armies, with poor operational capabilities. Therefore, and taking into account the seriousness of the challenge, European countries and other nations have to be ready for a UN-sponsored robust peacekeeping operation in Mali. That’s the way forward.

It is also part of way forward to ask a very simple question: who is providing fuel, spares, and vital supplies to the extremists in Northern Mali? People who deal with these matters have the answer, I am sure. Maybe the answer is just on the other side of the Northern border. Once this question is answered in enough evidence has been collected, I think the key leaders in the EU should confront their political counterparts in the country concerned and firmly request them to put a stop to those logistical lines of supply. That would contribute a long way to a negotiated solution of the national crisis in Mali. 

Paris is diverse

There was a very large demonstration in Paris today against the adoption of legislation that would recognise the marriage between people of the same sex. I disagree with the position adopted by the demonstrators. But applaud those who have the commitment and courage to fight for their views and values. Strong societies are made of people who are not afraid of expressing their opinion.  They are also made of people who accept the views and behaviour of others who might have opted for a different approach to life.

Tolerance and inclusiveness are key dimensions of today’s democracies. 

Mali

President Hollande’s decision to send troops to Mali should be fully supported. It is time to stop the armed men that are trying to destroy the country’s fragile institutions and peaceful, tolerant way of life the Malians have gotten used to.

Those men are just fighters without a cause, hiding behind a very simple and brutal way of looking at religion. They come from an old tradition of razzias combined with the lack of economic opportunities in a vast arid area. For years, their leaders and many of them served Kaddafi’s dreams of an African legion. This was a great source of money, weapons and military training, even if substandard.

The West African nations are in no position to militarily oppose these raiders. These are countries with very weak, ineffectual armies. To believe they can put together a credible force and fight the radicals from Northern Mali is a serious mistake. Furthermore, these armies have no training to combat in desert areas. For these reasons, a larger support, from France and elsewhere, is a must.

And the UN needs to reconsider its position and be real about what can be done and who can do it in Mali. The French and other nations from the broader international community can. 

Leaders

"Be not afraid of greatness: some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them."

William Shakespeare, Twelfth Night

EU Leaders neglect job promotion issues

In my opinion column of yesterday in the Portuguese weekly magazine Visao , I concluded that the only way in the European Union to bring confidence back is through lower unemployment rates. 

The European citizens perceive the leaders as too concerned with the survival of the banks, the austerity measures and the usual power games. They do not see the same level of political energy being invested in promoting jobs, attracting investment and expanding exports. For the citizen on the street, the politicians seem to be disconnected from the ordinary person. This translates into a crisis of confidence in the political classes. In many countries, the credibility of the political leaders is rather comparable to a used car vendor’s image. 

If there is no improvement in the job market, the leaders’credibility will remain low. If I were in charge, I would spend most of my time looking for sustainable solutions to the unemployment issue. And I would certainly start by focussing my attention on the exchange value of the Euro. A strong Euro is an important contributing factor for continued job losses. 

The Portuguese kindergarten

The IMF has just published a review of Portugal’s public expenditures. The report came as a bomb at a time when the public debate about 2013 State budget had already generated an avalanche of political fights and great instability, including within the governing parties. Now, with the IMF’s recommendations on the table, the country looks like a big fire being dealt with gasoline. There is widespread cacophony, exaltation and very little self-examination and reflection. It is like a kindergarten without any adult in charge. 

UK's national interest and the EU

From today's Financial Times:

Britain needs to adopt a hard-headed approach founded on the national interest – and hold a referendum

I love the idea of "national interest". But I am afraid it is one of the vaguest ideas on the market. It is subject to so many interpretations. The "national interest" as perceived by a banker in London is very different from the one understood by a shop floor vendor in Birmingham, or a a young graduate in Durham. Not to mention people in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. Even a staff writer at the Financial Times will see it differently from a journo at The Sun next door.

Is there a good step-by-step guideline on how to define the "national interest" of a given country? I don't think so. But in a case like this one, the future of the relationship between the UK and Europe cannot just be defined by Conservative politicians or by a coalition government that is above all a marriage of convenience. It would require ample debate at Westminster and a broad consensus in the Commons. 

Europe and Russia

Yesterday’s discussion on European defence at the Madariaga Foundation left out the issue of Russia. Nobody mentioned Russia, either during the presentations or the discussions. 

I found it difficult to understand, particularly when we see the positions President Putin takes towards the West.  I know there is a NATO partnership with Moscow. But I also suspect that the partnership is not going well at all and that the trend is to face an Eastern neighbour that sees itself more as a competitor than a partner.