It is wise to be prudent

Too much snow in our part of Europe transformed this Sunday into a quiet day. However, that did not prevent a couple of leaders from being too excessive about the situation in the Sahel. They sound now like new converts to a cause they are at present magnifying beyond proportions, after so many months spent overlooking the crisis that was in the making.  

It is a very serious threat, no doubt, but it requires a thoughtful approach to it, not an emotional response, as Mr Cameron seems to believe. With good coordination between all the local, regional and key international players, it should be possible to sort things out. Any comparison with Afghanistan is, in my opinion, out of proportions. We cannot compare two very different regional contexts.

Please define a more precise end state!

I was told yesterday that President Hollande defined the eradication of the Islamist terrorists from Mali as the objective of the on-going military campaign. He added that the troops will stay in that African country as long as it is necessary to achieve this goal.

In my opinion, this objective is too vast, dangerously vague as it can lead to a stalemate, a never-ending and unaffordable mission. Furthermore, with time, it has the risk of turning the French public opinion against an operation they support today.

A military intervention like this one needs to have a clear end state.  It should be as short as possible and lead to a political process. It has also to be linked to the actions carried out by others, in the case, by the West African nations as well as by the EU training mission that is being put together. It cannot be taken in isolation. It has also to have a regional dimension. And above all, it cannot ignore that at the end of the day, the ultimate objective is to create the conditions for Mali to take care of its own security and governance. This requires a comprehensive approach and it is much larger than the current military operation by France. This operation, with all its merits, should not be more than a stop-gap in a multidimensional and multi-actor process.

Chadian army in Mali

Chad has sent an initial military contingent to join the West African force that will be deployed in Mali. The Chadian Foreign Minister, Moussa Faki, has also announced that his government would be ready to make available up to 2,000 soldiers for the Malian campaign, if necessary. That would make the Chadian contribution the largest. In any case, it is good news. The National Army of Chad (ANT) is probably the most capable in the region. Only Nigeria compares to it.

ANT was a ragtag assortment of armed men up to 2008. After the rebel incursion of January-February 2008, that brought the Sudanese-sponsored guerrilla groups up the doors of the presidential palace in N’Djamena and has shaken deeply the regime, President Idriss Déby decided to extensively re-organise the armed forces. Some very tough decisions in terms of command and control, discipline and training were taken then. The truth of the matter is that by May 2009 the forces had changed. They could then easily contain another rebel incursion and show a degree of professionalism that was unknown.

In addition, ANT is very much used to operating in terrains that are very similar to Northern Mali. They will feel at home.

The real challenge will be their coordination with the other forces. The Nigerian general that will be the overall operations commander of the West African intervention will have to show serious leadership qualities.

The Algerian hostage crisis

I agree with the decision taken by the Algerian authorities to storm the gas facility and try to find a solution to the crisis without delay. 

I know that my opinion might be perceived as contrary to the ones expressed through diplomatic channels by the UK Prime Minister or my friend, the Foreign Minister of Norway, among others. When contacting Algiers, they both emphasised the need for safeguarding the lives of the hostages at any cost. This is in principle the right approach. But out there, in the middle of a vast territory which is easy prey to all kinds of bandits, the leaders of Algeria have very little options. The key point for them was actually to send a very strong message to all the armed groups that kidnapping and attacking gas and oil facilities is not acceptable and will lead to the death of the assailants. 

Tonight, I think that message has been received by the terrorists. 

Of course, I sincerely deplore the heavy loss of life. And I feel deeply sorry for the families. For each one of them, this is a major personal tragedy. But I am convinced these lives were not lost in vain. The kind of action that has been taken might discourage many other terrorist initiatives in the future.

Now, the real challenge for the Algerian authorities is to look for the sponsors of this act of terror and bring them to justice. This is a major test for the government as many of these groups have powerful links within the officer corps of the national Algerian army.

Mr Cameron and other European leaders should now focus their attention on advising Algiers to do what remains to be done. On that front, they should be very firm. 

A new situation in North Africa

The hostage situation in Algeria, with the kidnapping of many foreigners, from different nationalities, by an al-Qaeda inspired group, opens a new phase in the security crisis in that part of North Africa as well as other areas surrounding Mali. All of sudden governments from outside the region are realising that their interests in the gas and oil fields in Algeria and the vicinity could be under very serious threat. This can deeply affect the functioning of the many fields and lead to a significant decrease in the production levels.

French pessimism

Quoting from today's Eurointelligence daily bulletin:

French more pessimistic about the future

According to the annual poll of Opinionway  cited by Les Echos the French are more pessimistic than ever about their future, hardly believe that the young will do better than their parents,  and that the politicians can handle the crisis or do anything about their concerns. 

66% of the polled prefer experts rather than politicians to decide on what is best for the country, while 46% believe that France has to protect itself against today’s world. Only hospitals (82%) and the police (62%) have the confidence of the polled. There is also one surprising result: 53% want the state to give companies more freedom, and the private company is the only organisation which gains in confidence.

Mali, Algeria and the EU

The events in Mali, especially the French deployment, have brought that part of the world back to the agenda in Brussels and other EU capitals. This is good news because there was no way the West African states alone – even with some “technical support” from a couple of external partners – could be in a position to put together a military force capable of fighting the rebel groups operating in Northern Mali. Most of West Africa has very weak armies, with poor operational capabilities. Therefore, and taking into account the seriousness of the challenge, European countries and other nations have to be ready for a UN-sponsored robust peacekeeping operation in Mali. That’s the way forward.

It is also part of way forward to ask a very simple question: who is providing fuel, spares, and vital supplies to the extremists in Northern Mali? People who deal with these matters have the answer, I am sure. Maybe the answer is just on the other side of the Northern border. Once this question is answered in enough evidence has been collected, I think the key leaders in the EU should confront their political counterparts in the country concerned and firmly request them to put a stop to those logistical lines of supply. That would contribute a long way to a negotiated solution of the national crisis in Mali. 

Paris is diverse

There was a very large demonstration in Paris today against the adoption of legislation that would recognise the marriage between people of the same sex. I disagree with the position adopted by the demonstrators. But applaud those who have the commitment and courage to fight for their views and values. Strong societies are made of people who are not afraid of expressing their opinion.  They are also made of people who accept the views and behaviour of others who might have opted for a different approach to life.

Tolerance and inclusiveness are key dimensions of today’s democracies. 

Mali

President Hollande’s decision to send troops to Mali should be fully supported. It is time to stop the armed men that are trying to destroy the country’s fragile institutions and peaceful, tolerant way of life the Malians have gotten used to.

Those men are just fighters without a cause, hiding behind a very simple and brutal way of looking at religion. They come from an old tradition of razzias combined with the lack of economic opportunities in a vast arid area. For years, their leaders and many of them served Kaddafi’s dreams of an African legion. This was a great source of money, weapons and military training, even if substandard.

The West African nations are in no position to militarily oppose these raiders. These are countries with very weak, ineffectual armies. To believe they can put together a credible force and fight the radicals from Northern Mali is a serious mistake. Furthermore, these armies have no training to combat in desert areas. For these reasons, a larger support, from France and elsewhere, is a must.

And the UN needs to reconsider its position and be real about what can be done and who can do it in Mali. The French and other nations from the broader international community can. 

Leaders

"Be not afraid of greatness: some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them."

William Shakespeare, Twelfth Night