Complexities and the deficit of confidence

  The dynamics of geopolitics and key international events are moving faster than our capacity to forecast, grasp their meaning or measure the intensity of their impact. We live at present in a world that is in constant flux and too complex.

Above all, there is a major inadequacy between the global nature of many challenges and the mechanisms to respond to them. That’s why the reform of the UN System is more urgent than ever.

But there is also a very serious crisis of confidence in the leaders and in the institutions. And that makes some places even more dangerous. 

Obama's great speech

President Obama’s speech on the State of the Union is inspired by a progressive outlook and modernity. It is highly advisable to read it carefully. It is a great lesson on politics and public speech. The style is direct and conversational. It has a strong human touch, with several references to real people. And above all, it proposes a number of directions and this is the trademark of a leader: to set the ambition!

Its references to clean cars that will move on alternative fuels, not on oil, to women’s rights and full empowerment, to the need to stop the violence against women,  and also the observations about development co-operation are remarkable paragraphs in a statement that is full of extraordinary reflections.  

Leadership, play, mysticism...and keep smiling!

As I perused my old personal notes about leadership, I came across one written almost fifteen years ago that says that there is bit of “ theatre” – representation – included in the practice of leadership. And just after that line, the following reads that there also a touch of mysticism in a leader. 

I would add that a good leader has also a good sense of humour.

Then I looked at some of the men that are in charge of Europe today – Angela Merkel is a different ball game – and couldn't find the actor ( with the exception of Berlusconi, of course, but he has no mysticism, all in him is fake and paid for, you can ask Ruby) and also couldn't think of anyone who inspires people.

An example is poor François. He is not comfortable in his role, as if he were the wrong cast for the job of President, and he can’t fire the flame that the European left had hoped he would. But at least, he seems sincere.

Can we say the same about many others?

The Pope, Syria and Berlusconi

My editor had to rearrange this week’s magazine, which was about to be finalised and sent to the printers, after the announcement by Pope Benedict XVI of his resignation. In the magazine as in all media outfits the news arrived as a major earthquake. It has shaken all the other items. Space being a rare commodity in all types of media, particularly in the magazine type, the Pope’s decision has chased out many other pieces of information and editorial comments on other matters. From what I know, it is the Syrian crisis and the Italian elections articles that paid the highest price. They moved out of the pages and focus, or were given just a token space. The Pope took precedence. The matters of God won over the tragedy of people in Syria and the comedy of Berlusconi in Italy. 

Peacekeeping experience in the Sahel

Now that there is a proposal on the table of the UN Security Council to approve a DPKO-type follow-on force to take over from the French in Mali, my suggestion would be very clear: please have a look at the MINURCAT experience. MINURCAT, the peacekeeping mission in Chad and Central African Republic (2008-2010), took over in 2009 from a European force, led by the French in circumstances that were not too different from the current Malian one. There was a successful transition between the French/European forces and the UN military and civilian contingent, but there were also a number of lessons that have been learned and should be taken into account.

It is true that the international community tends to have a short memory. But 2009 is not that far back. And the sands of Northern Chad are comparable to the ones in Mali.

Furthermore, with a strong Chadian contingent being deployed to Mali, there is one more reason to look at the way the UN mission (MINURCAT) interacted with the Chadian army. As I have already mentioned in a previous post, of all the African troops being sent to Mali, the Chadians are probably the most combative and effective.

  

Cameron, the European...

Still on yesterday’s meeting of the EU Council, and on the budget for 2014-2020, the big winner is David Cameron. He managed to get Angela Merkel, the Dutch and the Scandinavian leaders on his side. Cameron is the man to watch as far as the future of Europe is concerned.

Another winner, I should emphasise it because people tend to forget his role, is Herman Van Rompuy, the President of the European Council. He led the process with great ability and managed to obtain a consensus without any public recrimination from any of the heads of state or government. Even François Hollande, the most visible face of the losers, kept quiet. 

EU Budget: too long a period at a time of uncertainties

I should write about the EU budget 2014-2020, as approved today by the EU Council. And add that even if the total amount matters, what matters more is how money is allocated. How much money goes for the big issues that have a strategic impact over the future of Europe? That’s the key question.

And what are those issues?

First, those related to the economic disparities between different corners of the European space. How can we unite the Continent when some countries and regions are kept far behind in terms of development and the gap keeps increasing?

Second, investments in science and technological research. The future of Europe has to be built on a knowledge economy, not on steel and textiles. Unless, of course, if the textiles are at the sharp end of the creative industries, both in terms of design and advanced materials…

Third, funds and programmes for youth employment promotion, youth education for the jobs of the future, preparing a youth with a European mind-set and a global outlook.  

Fourth, internal security, including cyber-security, and security co-operation with the neighbours of the EU.

Fifth, a common external policy, including an effective development aid agenda and enough resources for humanitarian relief and response.

These are the budget lines we need to look at, as a matter of priority.

Having said that, I am also very concerned about a process that approves financial resources for a long period of time – seven years – when we live in a world that is changing rapidly. It is good to have a long term vision but it is better to have a system that is flexible and can be adjusted to respond to new challenges as they develop. I do not think the EU budgetary process is tailored for that. 

On people and power

The world's political environment has changed rapidly since the beginning of this century. This is in many ways related to the massive access to information and the widespread usage of low cost, accessible means of communication. The democratisation of information enhanced the citizen's awareness, self-esteem, sense of force, public participation and leverage.  Everybody is connected, has an opinion and is not afraid of voicing it, if necessary. Fast, power seems to be a click away from each individual. It has become accessible. This means, for many, a new approach towards power as people got convinced that politics is an easy job, accessible, and that they could as well as be the prime minister of their own country or the secretary-general of the UN. The symbolism and distance of power have been lost and the street turns out to be the new seat of authority.

The fact of the matter is that political leaders can no longer ignore public opinion. Even to pretend to be listening is no longer enough. If you are in charge, you better be on guard and listen!

This change has also influenced the way international affairs are conducted. Here, as in national politics, we notice the emergence of a different approach with the individual – men and women – at the centre of the global concerns. Let's take as an example the area of security, as this is a field where the concepts of sovereignty and national security, which are vague and distant for each person, have always dominated. As we moved deeper into the new century, the emphasis on human security, which is about protecting each one of us from all kinds of threats, gained ground and became an important component of the international debate.

In different words, the individual is now the main feature of the new political paradigm, both on the domestic and the international front: the citizen matters more than ever. Policy is defined taking each one of us in mind. At least, it should be, if one wants to remain in power. 

The first decade of the 21st century ended up by being deeply traumatised by the 9/11 events resulting in key western countries becoming heavily engaged in military campaigns in faraway lands, such as Iraq and Afghanistan. In my opinion, these are the last large scale interventions of the West, the final manifestations of a world that is no longer sustainable and acceptable, as sovereign debt, defence cuts and new international power relations make it clear. 

The 2000s was also a period when the different regions of the world gained greater political awareness of their own characteristics and sought to take charge of their own agenda. The launching of NEPAD, in 2001, is an illustration of such trend: Africa decided to change the way it related with the outside world. From then on, the objective became to take care of its own problems and be able to set its specific path towards the future. 

This is also a time of power shifts leading to the consolidation of new centres of influence. The old world’s authority is being challenged by the emerging powers.

As the French philosopher Michel Foucault used to say, power is not a fixed commodity, but a dynamic relationship that constantly changes. It is changing fast today.

Long weekends at the EU institutions

The EU staff in Brussels did not like my post of yesterday. I advised them to read it again. It is more favourable to them than many other statements we kept hearing throughout the day. Yes, they had again a lot of bad press today, in many corners of Europe.

And I also gave them another piece of advice, gently: please be in the office as scheduled, show you respect the working hours.

The point is that the EU bureaucrats have to move away from the habit of very long weekends. It is quite common to see most of the offices empty by Friday 11:00 am. And if one goes there and walks the buildings on a Monday morning, one notes that many staff are still out. They might be about to arrive at Brussels airport by late morning.

Actually, one gets the impression that there is little work discipline in many of the EU institutions. And the performance measurement mechanisms seem to be lacking. The bosses do not appear to be in charge.

Isn’t it time to start looking at these matters?

Having said that, there are people that work pretty hard. Not everyone is a “professional weekender”. 

EU staff on strike

EU civil servants were on strike today over salary matters. As the EU Council prepares to discuss the budget framework for 2014-2020, Germany and a couple of other countries have expressed the view that the European bureaucrats are dearly paid. They consider that their salary and compensation packages are excessive. Therefore, in line with the austerity that is being implemented in many states, the EU functionaries should accept some cuts to their pay.   

Nobody likes to see his or her salary chopped. But it is also true that many middle ranking EU staff are much better paid than the cabinet ministers in their home countries. But that is the rule of the international game. Salaries are always compared with the best in the sector, not with payments made in low income countries.

However, that is not a justification for a strike by privileged people. They should express their dissatisfaction at their desks and through other means without calling for a strike.

In my 32 years at the UN we had several situations of discontentment with the level of the pay slip. Particularly in New York, where the cost of living is extremely high and the UN salaries barely cover the reasonable needs of a family. But I do not remember we ever engaged on a strike.