Mandela is an inspiration

Mandela Day: very well celebrated in many parts of the world. One should feel great for that. And one should also feel good and proud because Mandela has shown that an African can be a global example for peace, justice and freedom.  He has also reminded us that there are politicians that mean well and are truly concerned with the betterment of their people. 

The strategic interest of the Middle East is tapering

The Middle East, defined in broad terms to include both Egypt and Iran, and the countries in between, remains the most unstable region of the world. It includes very dramatic and intricate crisis, such as the ones in Syria, Palestine, Lebanon, and very fragile governance regimes, such as the ones in Jordan, Iraq and Bahrain, without mentioning Saudi Arabia, which many consider to be experiencing the initial symptoms of instability. It is also home to serious ethnic and sectarian conflicts, as the Kurd situation, which concerns several countries, the rivalries between Sunni and Shia power elites, and the proliferation of extremist groups illustrate. The region is also deeply affected by Israel’s policy towards the Palestinian people.

View from the West, the region has lost a good deal of its strategic importance. Oil from the Middle East can now easily be replaced by oil from other parts of the world, including the US and Canada. Oil is therefore a much weaker argument when looking at the Western interests in the region. Religious fundamentalism and its violent manifestations are still a reason to pay attention to the region. But even in that domain, home-grown fundamentalism in the EU and the US are now getting more attention than distant threats that might be taking roots in the Middle East.

Also, from a trading perspective, the region is perceived as a small market, notwithstanding the wealth available within some of its leading circles.

The trend is therefore to switch the attention away from the Middle East to other parts of the world. 

What is Qatar up to?

I am confronted quite often with questions about Qatar’s role in the Middle East and North Africa. A lot of well-informed observers have serious difficulties to understand the Emirate’s strategic objectives and its political moves. Besides the role played by Qatar’s stated-funded global TV channel Al-Jazeera, which by the way, I watch with interest, people ask questions about many other things, including Doha’s extraordinary financial support provided to former President Morsi of Egypt.

No doubt, one has to have a deeper look at Qatar geo-strategic ambitions. 

Syria is getting back into the headline news again

The Syrian crisis has been pushed out of the TV screens by the situation in Egypt. And a lot of people in the West are feeling good about this. After deciding that they would deliver weapons to the rebels, many in Washington, London and elsewhere felt very uneasy about this move. The fact that Syria has been forgotten by the media during the last many weeks has given those politicians some respite.  But the tragedy is still there, the Geneva conference seems to be dead in the water and the issue is about to return to the top of the international agenda. What will be the Western response then? 

Alentejo, a Province in Southern Portugal

As I drove over the vast expanses of land that make Alentejo, the Southern Province of Portugal, I thought that all those, all over the world, that are interested in investing in commercial agriculture, food production, biofuels, exotic fruits, should consider visiting the region. There is so much farming land available there, just waiting for capital investment and technology. And the weather, on top of it, is not bad at all. 

Electoral assistance

It is not known by many, but one of the things the UN does very well is electoral assistance. Within the Secretariat there is a special unit, called Electoral Assistance Division (EAD). They have provided some of the best expertise available regarding elections, from Iraq to East Timor and Afghanistan, from Nigeria to Sierra Leone and Congo, and so on, and sometimes in very difficult national contexts. 

Portuguese challenges

The key Portuguese parties have been requested by the President to look for a broad political accord in order to guarantee enough stability during the last year of implementation of the current agreement with the international creditors.

This call is a surprise move by President Cavaco Silva. It reflects in many ways the huge economic and social challenges the country has to confront in the near future. It also reflects a very serious polarisation of the domestic political situation, not just between the government and the opposition, but also within the coalition parties themselves.  

It is a critical moment for the Portuguese. But in general, people have shown a tremendous amount of wisdom and have tried to navigate these difficult times. It is however very easy to give up hope and fall into sectarian partisan approaches. The President’s initiative should allow the political leaders to show that they place the national interest above personality clashes and power games. It is however a very complex call, very difficult to be successful. It can only be achieved if leading party people have the stature of statesmen. That’s, at the end of the day, what is on the table today in Portugal: an invitation to grow beyond one’s own limitations and to show commitment to a larger goal. 

The art of compromise

At 13:45 hours the European Commission made public their proposal regarding the establishment of a mechanism that would have the authority to deal with banking crisis. The proposed institution would oversee each one of the 6,000 banks –that many, indeed, I agree there are too many banks in Europe –that operate in the Eurozone.

A bit over an hour later, around 15:00 hours, Germany said no to the proposal.

In both cases, the positions were extreme, like two enemies in a war. It's a pity, at a time when the banking union should be moving faster. 

The art of balance, common sense and compromise is being lost in today’s Europe. 

Hollande low cost

The French President, François Hollande, has now an approval rating of 19%. This is by far the lowest rate ever. It is even worse than it looks if one takes into account that he is quite new in the job and therefore cannot pretend people are tired of him. People are just disappointed. They had expected a new style of governance, combining sensitivity and reform, and got indecision instead. In times of crisis, vacillation is the worst characteristic a leader can harbour. The voters want clarity, a well-defined sense of direction, resoluteness, and ability to communicate and mobilise. You might not be 100% sure of the best way to sort out the crisis, but you have to be perceived as being fully in control.

If not, you get 19% today and 10% tomorrow. Political devaluation goes as fast as currency devaluation in a crisis country. 

Spying on me is good for my ego

With all this spying that is going on, all over, one should feel important, because so many services are interested in what one is doing and saying.