Summer in Portugal

The preliminary assessments seem to indicate that this has been so far a good summer season in Portugal. The number of foreign visitors is up. Many of them chose the country because it remains tranquil and predictable. There have been no serious labour disruptions this summer.  It should continue like that.

Lisbon as seen from my veranda looks like a major destination for large cruise ships. Every day I see at least two coming in the morning for a day visit. It’s a great view. We need the business they bring in. But we also need them to have a good day in the city and be able to go back and tell everyone that the place is fine and worth the visit.

At the end of the day, tourism is about business and image. Both are critical for a country like Portugal. 

Rajoy's plot

The noise made by Madrid around Gibraltar in the last few days is a manoeuvre, by the embattled Prime Minister of Spain, to divert people’s attention from the political mess in which he dug himself in.

Globalization needs public debate

As the discussions on a free trade agreement with the US get – painfully – off the ground, I notice growing opposition in many segments of the EU public opinion against anything that might look like opening new doors to globalization. It is not just the workers’ movements, or the small entrepreneurs, or people from the left or the centre-left. The opposition also comes from heads of larger firms and others that know the world and have very much benefitted from the opening of the borders. It is also now the key feature within the nationalist groups.

The debate about globalization has lost objectivity. Everything is now about fears, vested interests, and protection from outside competition.  Those who should explain the advantages of a more open world market and how to operate in tomorrow’s global economy have preferred to remain silent. To do so is to give space to all kinds of populist views and to encourage retrograde politics to take over. It is, in my opinion, a dangerous withdrawal.  

Diversions and maneuvers

Manipulation of public opinion is one the oldest tactics in the bag of tricks of secret services, isn't it? 

Turkey and the EU

Leaders in the European Union look with perplexity at the sentences passed on top Turkish military officers and other civilian personalities, all of them accused of attempted coup d’état. But, as it has become the practice, they have decided to remain silent. It is however a silence that will weight a lot when the matter of Turkey’s accession to the EU will be on the table again. 

Post-elections period in Zimbabwe

It would be wise for the EU to accept the assessment made by the African Union regarding the Zimbabwe elections of 31 July. That assessment can also be combined with the findings of the Zimbabwean Electoral Support Network, a consortium of NGOs that deployed 7,000 observers throughout the country. We have then a more balanced opinion. EU can then state that it follows that balance, based on the judgement made by credible Africans, and express its willingness to constructively engage with the new government in Harare. Constructive engagement with anyone that matters is better than negative criticism. 

Iran's new President

Today Hassan Rouhani has replaced Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president of Iran. Like many within the country, I think the key players in the international community should see the new leader as an opportunity for constructive re-engagement with Iran. The approach to be followed has to be gradual, of course, and implemented by the Six-Party powers in a very well co-ordinated manner.

Rouhani’s two main concerns are clear to me: to put a stop to the serious economic decline Ahmadinejad’s policies have generated; and to improve the country’s relations with the key international players.

 If we in the West are aware of these imperatives he is confronted with and play along, we might achieve some degree of success.

It is in our interest to see a turnaround in the economy of Iran and have a leadership in Tehran that understands that international cooperation is the best option for them and for the region. 

Berlusconi

Italy’s governing coalition has become very shaky. Its future is unclear. Silvio Berlusconi will make things very difficult in the next few days. He thinks he needs to create a major national crisis. That’s the way the man behaves and this time is pretty serious for his personal survival and place in history. He will not forgive. He will try every trick to create a mess as a way of cleaning his reputation. And he is a man that will not hesitate to bring the country down if he himself is going down.

Assad, the master of the cemetery

Syria has very much disappeared from the radar screen of international affairs. The “July Conference” is like July itself: no more! The EU and the US seem to have concluded that Assad is not moving out of power. In addition, the Syrian opposition they could work with is more divided than ever. Turkey, on the other hand, after its own domestic social unrest, has cooled down its enthusiasm to play a bigger role in the neighbourhood. And Qatar and Saudi Arabia keep moving apart, with divergent interests at play.

Assad is therefore keeping the moment and the initiative. He knows that time and the mood in the international community are favourable to his aims. He might be ruling the ruins of a country, but he will be in power. For a tyrant, this is the best insurance he can get. It is better to be in charge of a cemetery than to be in the uncertainty of exile. 

EU recovery winds

In the EU, this month of July ends with a more optimistic note. At least, that’s what some analysts would like us to believe. They are now saying they see some signs that the worst of the economic crisis is past. That we might return to positive growth rates during the second half of the year.

If we look at the recovery in Ireland, we might come to the same conclusion. I am certainly very encouraged by the level of international investment the country is able to attract, which is a clear indicator that confidence is back and the overall macro-economic framework is getting the right shape. 

But one swallow doesn't make a summer. 

We can even forget Greece and its chronic development challenges. We cannot however be blind to the economic situations in Italy and Spain. These countries are not out of the woods. And they combine economic depression with political fragility. This is the worst combination we can have as one of the keys that opens the door of recovery is a strong government with a clear popular mandate and indisputable political legitimacy.