Haiyan´s response is too slow

The international response to Super Typhoon Haiyan is rather slow and surprisingly modest at this stage. One of the reasons seems to be related to lack of leadership on the side of the international community. Every player is going about it on its own. There is no recognised leader, no visible coordinator of efforts.

The world emergency response mechanisms should be better prepared to tackle this type of major crisis. And apparently they are not.

Logistics are also a key shortfall. This is also very surprising. In the region there are major armed forces capabilities that could be mobilised to provide the logistical support. Actually, they are the only ones that have the vast operational means that are required to urgently assist the populations. Why is it not taking place? 

Haiyan and the international cooperation

Super Typhoon Haiyan has caused a major humanitarian disaster in the Philippines. I would like to see the EU emergency response machinery to be fully mobilised to provide assistance without any further delay. And to do so in close coordination with the UN.

Then, on a second phase, the donors should meet with the Manila government and be prepared to fund an extensive reconstruction and investment programme to rehabilitate and strengthen the resilience of the areas affected by the disaster.

You react to this by telling me I believe in a better world. Yes, I do. Enhancing international cooperation in situations like this is key step towards that world. 

A changing Middle East

We understand better the current negotiations in Geneva between Iran and the P5 plus Germany if we take into account two factors.

First, the economic situation in Iran. The sanctions against Tehran are biting and their oil is also losing the leverage it used to have, as the world moves into other sources of energy and other techniques to generate oil. All this is having a serious impact on the Iranian economy. The regime knows that a very urbanised and young country as theirs cannot accept austerity for too long. The leaders´political survival requires a compromise with the key western countries as well as with Russia and China. They know it.

Second, for the West, a long view of their strategic interests places much more emphasis on improving the relations with the Arab and Muslim world in the Middle East. The turmoil in Iraq and now in Syria is a serious menace for peace and stability in the region. It is also a very important generator of extremism and religious fanatics. In the end, the Muslim populations of that part of the world have a much greater weight than Israel. For that reason, we are seeing a gradual shift away from Israel´s positions and a clear intent to improve the diplomatic relations with the Muslim states in the region.

The regional geopolitics are changing fast. 

Spending time in Addis Ababa

I spent the last few days in Addis Ababa.

My last visit had been in the late years of the 90´s decade. Many things have changed since then. There is impressive economic growth and the city keeps transforming itself all the time. It has also been growing very fast. The country´s population growth rate is very high. Around two million people are added to Ethiopia´s population every year. When I visited Addis for the first time, in 1978, the total population figure was around 37 million, Eritrea included. Today, the Ethiopians are over 86 million, Eritrea not counted, as it has become another country.

These numbers carry major challenges. No country can move fast enough to respond to such a population pressure. Even if the economic growth rate is very high, as it is the case in today´s Ethiopia. And you have to add to it major social inequalities and the tensions that come from ethnic diversity and different strong religious identities.

The government has been able so far to manage these threats. It has kept a very heavy lid on this boiling pressure cooker. The state control is still very ubiquitous. However, the key question is now: how long can this control last as the young people become more and more numerous and urbanised?

To pay or not to pay?

A couple of days ago four Frenchmen that had been kidnapped in Niger three or so years ago were released by their captors. 

Kidnapping of Europeans became, a few years ago, a new business line for the many bandits that operate in the vast and lonely sands of the Sahel and Sahara.

I was, at a given time, involved in combatting that type of crimes. And it was said, already then, that the French are always ready to pay ransom money. Therefore, for the armed bandits to kidnap a French citizen was the best move. There was good money at the end of the line.

And this time again, there has been a payment. €20 million is a good sum. It was paid by a private company, we are told. But for the fellows out there, money is money, be it from the State or from a deep private pocket.

In the end, the question that matters is clear: should ransom money be paid to get kidnapped persons released? The answer is not that simple. At least, for some. 

Individualism is a key value of today´s world

The political leaders seem to have lost control, in several countries, of their national security apparatus.

The espionage saga is still very much unfolding. It is certainly undermining President Obama´s international prestige. And that´s a pity, for many reasons. But it will end up by undermining other leaders ‘reputations as well, I fear.

It is quite obviously that the EU leaders are in hot water: either they were not aware of their services´ activities, or they are trying to deceive us. In any case, it is not good news. If they were not aware, that means they can easily be fooled. I would not be surprised, in some cases.

On the other hand, if they are trying to mislead the public opinion about what they really knew and about their hidden intentions, they are missing two important points: people have presently more access to information than ever and they will end up by knowing what is going on; secondly, people´s privacy is a key issue today as it was yesterday; one should not confuse participation in social networks with willingness to disclose every aspect of one´s life. Privacy remains a very valued feature of today´s life. It is actually linked to individualism, a key dimension of the modern times. 

Mozambique needs help

In Mozambique, the security and political environment have deteriorated fast during the last four of so weeks.

The political stress between Renamo, the former guerrilla group that became the key opposition party after the peace agreement of the early 90s, and the government led by Frelimo has flared up. There has been some armed violence between the two, albeit very localised and contained. But the tension remains unresolved. It can easily escalate and lead to deep conflict.

In the main urban centres there has been a series of criminal kidnappings for ransom. In one the recent cases, in Beira, the little boy that had been taken was murdered by the bandits. These actions are creating a lot of fear. They add to other types of crimes that are very common in the cities, such as burglaries and armed robberies. The Police seems unable to cope.

On the top of it all, there have been serious accusations of corruption against the close relatives of the President and other political figures. The President himself has a very tarnished image. He has vast business interests. Many believe that his control of business and wealth is related to abuse of power and traffic of influence.

It is sad to see the country moving into crisis. This has been a good example of post-conflict recovery. And also of economic growth. It cannot become now a bad example of bad leadership.

And the external friends of Mozambique need to wake up. Their help can make a difference. 

On leadership again and always

Leadership requires a firm voice. To be loud is not the point. It only adds noise. It is to be perceived as clear and brave that matters.  

Cameron and the EU

During last week´s EU summit in Brussels, the UK Prime Minister showed a more positive approach towards the European institutions, particularly the EU Commission. For those who have seen his past attitudes, he was a different man. The speculation regarding his change of mind is wild and many reasons have been mentioned in the last couple of days. I have no sure answer. But I suspect he has been listening to the key business representatives in London and throughout the UK. For them, a referendum on Europe, as promised by David Cameron, would be a serious mistake. It would give too much space to the inward, nationalistic politicians and could result in a No vote. The big British companies do not want that to happen. 

Code of conduct for intelligence agencies

The on-going row over the US espionage practices should become an opportunity to discuss intelligence cooperation between the two sides of the Atlantic. It should also be used by the Europeans to better define the potential threats to their national and economic security and take the appropriate protective measures.

As I say it, I also recognise that intelligence remains one of the key features of a country´s sovereignty. But this should not prevent the EU countries from integrating better those dimensions of the services that have to do with responding to common threats. And, at the same time, they should protect themselves from intrusion, including when that spying comes from a friendly ally.

It is also time to have a code of conduct and a list of best practices that would guide information collection in a democratic environment. And get national parliaments to appoint independent ethics commissions that would be charged with the overseeing of intelligence activities in their respective countries. These commissions would then be guided by the above-mentioned code of conduct.