Ashton and the hesitant EU states

Today Baroness Ashton, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy has issued a statement on “the extremely grave situation in the Central African Republic”. The title says everything. Or maybe, almost everything.

The statement recognises that the situation has been deteriorating very seriously since the beginning of this week. The French troops and the African military mission are just overwhelmed by the increasing violence, the widespread attacks against Muslims, and the generalised chaos in a country that has been pretty chaotic for a bit of time now.

The main addressees of this declaration are the EU states themselves. They have been very reluctant in fielding a peace mission in support of those already on the ground. The EU governments have invented all kinds of excuses to delay the deployment of the forces. Some of these forces are ready to go but their political masters prefer to say that they need additional training, just as a way of procrastinating.

It is true that CAR is far away. One can even say that Libya is much closer and is still in disarray and the Europeans do very little to help this neighbour. There is a big difference though. Libya is not witnessing a genocide-type of conflict. There the issue is more about strengthening the state authority.

I can understand the reluctance on the European side when it comes to sending troops to address a law and order challenge. Troops are not policemen. They are supposed to deal with military threats. But if you do not have enough gendarmes and special police forces to deploy, you go for the military solution as stop-gap approach. It is either that or more innocent civilians being simply massacred.

For those like me who have spent a few years dealing with the country and the region, the short term response – to stop the violence – does not seem too difficult and certainly it would not require a very large force.

It calls however for a commitment on the EU side that is now clearly absent. And Mrs Ashton cannot state it with the same clarity I can. But she means it.

Egypt: unacceptable court proceedings

Let me be clear. Kangaroo courts and irrational judgments like the ones now taking place in Egypt are simply unacceptable. The way hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood sympathizers and activists have been sentenced – most of them to death – has to be denounced as totally inappropriate in any country today. It is just absurdly infamous and nothing can justify that type of processes. Each trial is a violation of the most basic human rights

I realise the Egyptian society is now deeply divided. But it cannot be guided by blind hate. It has, on the contrary, to find ways to bring people together. There is no way one segment of society is going to be able to annihilate the opposing segment. They have to compromise and live together.

I am very surprised by the Western leaders´ silence. I cannot understand why the EU and the US are not loud and clear about these medieval approach to governance in Egypt. 

French ideas

The outcome of the first round of France´s local elections calls for a serious refection about the mood among ordinary voters. Many people, in France and other parts of Europe, are just tired of traditional political parties. As they are also tired of the old clichés about left and right. They want jobs, security and responsible, honest politicians. That should be the agenda. But without extremist ideas, xenophobic prejudice and nostalgia for a world that is now past. We live in Europe, in a community of nations, we have to build how future on that fact, not against it. 

Cool down, gentlemen!

The analysis available this evening does recommend a cooling down of the rhetoric. The messages have been pretty well received in Moscow, they got the picture, which is of clear condemnation, and I think that should be enough for the time being. It is important to be perceived as firm, true. That´s now understood in the Kremlin. But it is also necessary to avoid an escalation of words. Many conflicts have started because the wrong words have been said and misunderstood. As we live in dangerous times, it is important to avoid too many words, too many inflammatory statements or declarations that might create anxiety, confusion and destabilisation of the economic setup, which is very fragile. 

Moving North

In the last few days, the number of illegal emigrants that have tried to cross the Mediterranean Sea to reach Italy and the EU has increased dramatically. This flow shows that spring has arrived and the waters are much calmer. It also shows that the trend to migrate to Europe through North Africa, particularly through Libya, has not gone down, notwithstanding the lack of suitable jobs in our part of the world. But for a young man from Niger or Senegal, from Pakistan or Bangladesh, the dream is clear: to come and work in Europe is the ambition.

Recently I was trying to discourage someone from getting into this kind of adventure. Based in Dakar, a city that has gone poorer and overcrowded during the last fifteen years or so, the young fellow couldn´t believe me when I told him that there is no job for a bricklayer in today´s Europe. For him and his friends the truth is very simple: where they live today there is no future. And if you are a person full of energy you just keep moving. 

On today´s Turkey

It is time for the EU leaders to have a serious discussion about Turkey. More than ever, it is necessary to agree on a common position. And be very clear when it comes to governance issues in Ankara. 

The buoy on offer

It is always a serious mistake to ignore the feelings of each part to a conflict.

Conflicts do escalate because of feelings, matters of honour, fear of being perceived as weak, of losing the face, and other issues of national pride and history. The understanding of is of national interest gets then blurred. The obvious economic cost of war is disregarded, as it is the human dimension. The flag becomes more important than the individual.

Mediation is about finding a way out from such powerful irrationality.

The UN Secretary-general´s visit to Moscow and then to Kiev is a critical move that should be seized as a much needed buoy in very choppy waters. 

Baltic bridges

The Baltic States are all members of NATO. That´s a big difference when their situation is compared with Ukraine´s. But there is more. They are part of the EU, including of the Schengen space, and two of them have the Euro as their currency. These are major reasons for their citizens of Russian ancestry and ethnicity to consider that they have a lot to gain if the current status quo of the Baltic countries is maintained. They would certainly feel less free and less able to move around if they were to become part of Russia.

But the Baltic leaders also have a major role to play. They should recognise the rights of the minority populations that live in their countries, including the official recognition of Russian as one of the national languages.

I have said several times to my Baltic friends that they have a lot to gain by being neighbours of Russia and part of the EU. They can be the bridge that everyone would like to see strengthened.

This is therefore no time for inappropriate rhetoric. 

Beware of extremist ideas in Europe

Based in the UK, the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) is an independent think tank that is spending quite a bit of its resources on research about the extreme right movements in Europe. The research is also used to make policy recommendations.

It is worth to look at its webpage at:

 http://www.strategicdialogue.org

The right-wing extremism is one of the growing concerns in certain EU countries. Racism, xenophobia, radical nationalism and anti-liberal authoritarianism are its key features. In addition, there is also the risk of violence related to religious fanaticism.

It would be a serious mistake to pretend EU is immune to that kind of violent ideas. Actually, as we get closer to the European elections we can see that ultra-right parties are gaining ground in several countries.

It is critical to fight them politically. But in some cases, they are just a matter of law and order. Their leaders should be brought to the book. 

Putin´s isolation

For many, the world, their world, is a dangerous place to live. Just take the example of the farmers in three villages in the Kaduna state, Nigeria, that have been massacred by nomad pastoralists a couple of days ago. Or the people in Syria, who have been in the midst of dreadful civil war for the last three years. Or those in Afghanistan who have only known war for such a long time.

And one could mention many other places.

In view of this, the politics of confrontation that guide Vladimir Putin´s actions in his part of the world are a matter of great concern. They could take us towards open conflict. Therefore, they require a very firm response from the West. Change through rapprochement, the approach we have followed during the last twenty years, is not understood by Putin. He reads in it weakness. That´s very unfortunate. It is therefore time to change our approach. And use isolation and strong diplomacy as the new tools. It is in our interest and certainly in the interest of peace in Europe.

We should not forget that Putin´s hold on power is grounded on the revenue coming from the export of his country´s natural resources. Less trade and less investment will in the end contribute to let him understand we are now in a more interdependent world, where cooperation is more important than confrontation. We only have to find the right way to make such a message crystal clear.