Diplomacy as part of a wider package

The agreement reached today in Geneva regarding Ukraine´s crisis is encouraging. We will see if it is implemented. But the fact that the parties, including Russia and the US, could agree on a way forward reminds us that we should keep talking, when there is a conflict, we should not cut off the bridges. That does not mean we should only try diplomacy. Actually diplomacy works better when it is combined with a full range of other measures, such as smart sanctions, military posture and deterrence, unity within the allies, and a clear political position. 

A few basic questions

On Russia and the West, there are a number of questions on the table. Do we really understand what the key Russian motivations are? Do they matter, as far as the Western interests are concerned? Why? If the answer is yes, what are then the West´s political response options that are realistically available? Which one is the preferred one? What are the chances of success? And what are the risks? Who are our allies? 

These are the key questions we must keep in mind and respond to. Action taken that is not based on clear answers to these interrogations should be called improvisation.

And this is no time for skin reactions. What is at stake is important. If the West is caught unprepared and without a clear strategy, then we are in for more, in the foreseeable future. 

Keep Ukraine together

In our corner of the world, the Ukrainian situation is the key issue. A very complex issue, indeed. And complex matters do require patience to be sorted out. They also require a clear understanding of the magnitude of the problem. At this stage, the information available does not allow me to fully grasp if we are facing just a few groups of activists or are we confronted with a mass movement. The impression I get is that this is still the work of rather small but pretty well coordinated –by whom, one should also ask – groups. That´s why it makes sense to suggest, as Kiev did today, that autonomy referenda could be organised in the regions. That seems to be a way forward.

It is also important to rapidly allow the government in Kiev to show some early wins. The West, if they take this matter as seriously as they say, has to help the new authorities to get some very visible results soonest.

It is also important to add that one the consequences of a potential partition of the country would be to have the Western part that would result from such a partition to join NATO soonest. That possibility should be used to encourage Russia to keep Ukraine together, even if as a federation of autonomous regions. It is either national unity or partition with NATO expanding beyond the Polish border. 

Afghan elections

The news coming from Afghanistan is good. After a relatively successful electoral day, the counting of votes is progressing well and the presidential candidates are taking it with the required composure.

It is too early, at this stage, to find out if there will a second round or not. But the top competitors seem to be prepared to accept the verdict of the polls. Let´s hope that will be the case. That will send a strong message to everyone, inside and outside the country, a message that things are more stable than many would have thought. 

Eastern Ukraine

The de-escalation in Eastern Ukraine is very urgent. And it should start by looking at the most recent events with a clear sense of proportions. The occupations of public buildings in a few Eastern cities are the work of very small groups of individuals. They might get a lot of media attention and create serious concerns in many chancelleries, but the truth is that there is no massive support, at least up to now, for that kind of actions. For the time being this is a law and order issue and not a popular sea change. It should be dealt with by the Kiev authorities with measured force. That´s the call one has to make at this time of greater risks. 

Politics and peacekeeping

I am writing again about peacekeeping. And for sure, one of my conclusions is that the UN peacekeeping operations need to have a solid backing from the Security Council, when it comes to their role in political transitions and negotiation. It is not enough to have the military, police and civilian establishments solidly established in the mission. The head of the mission can only fulfill his or her role if the political mandate is clear, fully supported by the Council and by other key stakeholders such as the countries in the region. In a case of national crisis, the political muscle is critical. It has to be there, at the centre of the mission, without ambiguity.

Anothe lame duck mission in the making

The same day I had a discussion about the frustratingly slow and very incomplete deployment of the UN peacekeeping operation in Mali (MINUSMA), the Security Council has approved the fielding of a very large mission to the Central African Republic. To be on the safe side, in terms of readiness to deploy, the Council decided that the effective starting date for this new operation will be September 15. But everyone knows that there is very little spare capacity really available for these very large missions. The new one will be struggling for military, police and civilian staff as MINUSMA is doing.

Actually, it is time to think very differently about the peacekeeping operations. We cannot just base ourselves on the old model of extensive military presence for an extremely large duration of time. Things need to be thought in more dynamic terms, shorter and more specialised missions, with a very firm political mandate. 

Kerry and Netanyahu

The Israeli government has no love lost for John Kerry. Benjamin Netanyahu and his inner circle are deeply irritated by Kerry´s continued efforts to bring peace to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. They let that displeasure be known through informal channels. When they meet the US Secretary of State they seem to be willing to play the diplomatic game. But they are not. And that´s why they have cancelled the release of the last batch of Palestinian prisoners that should have found their freedom days ago. More. They have decided to build extra settlements -700 new homes – in occupied land in the East Jerusalem area.

Israel top leaders believe they can only count on their own means to protect their country. They see the emergence of a Palestinian State as a serious threat to their own security. They prefer the current status quo. But the present arrangement has no real future. It is a major source of conflict a very serious violation of basic principles of international law. Sooner or later, both sides will have to find a more accommodating solution. The ball, however, is more on the Israeli camp than on the other side. This is a debate the Israelis should have among themselves. 

Rwanda and the Central African Republic

On this anniversary day, twenty years after the beginning of genocide in Rwanda, as we remember those terrible events and the hundreds of thousands of victims, we seem to forget that we have a similar situation in the Central African Republic. It is true the numbers are not as high, but the hatred between communities and the killing of innocents, of one´s neighbours, just because they look a bit different or dress in a way that shows their religious beliefs, are very similar to what happened in Rwanda.  And once again, we prefer to remember the past and ignore the deep challenges of the present.

Afghan elections: lets keep them clean

We should look at today´s presidential elections from a positive perspective. The news is good indeed. The participation rate, estimated at 58%, is very significant in a country that is still confronted with major security threats. It was encouraging to see long lines of men and women waiting their turn to vote. It is true that the logistics were not exemplary. In many places they could even be said to be messy. But flaws were corrected throughout the day and people could eventually vote.

Among the eight candidates, the two leading hopefuls, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, are very reasonable people. Any of them could be a good leader for the country.

The point is to keep the credibility of the elections. The last ones, in 2009, were too fraudulent. Hamid Karzai was elected then in a manner that made his tenure very fragile and compromised his capacity to fully exercise the democratic authority that was key for a rapid transition to a more legitimate government. He spent his last mandate just trying to balance the interests of very powerful allies, without having the legitimacy to go beyond that.

Karzai will however be reminded as the leader that carried the nation through many difficult years, close to thirteen. The last deed everyone expects from him is very simple: keep the current electoral process clean, do not interfere. His candidate –apparently it is Zalmai Rassoul – might not make it to the second round. But Karzai should make it to the good books of the Afghan history.