Summits are crucial for crisis resolutions.

Today´s top level meetings at the D-Day commemorations have shown, once again, that summits matter. Leaders that meet regularly and know each other are in a better position to sort out big issues when a threatening crisis occurs. It is not enough to have the Foreign Ministers around the table. They are, at the end of the day, more radical than their masters. The critical step is to get the political bosses to sit together and talk the issues through. 

Draghi´s measures should have a positive impact

I fully support the measures taken today by the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi. It´s far too early to talk about their impact, even less about the results. But they are bold decisions. They are a very serious attempt to revive the EU economies, to facilitate access to productive credit and also put a stop to the strengthening of the euro currency. The only problem is that the financial markets are very volatile, they have their own logic, and, in many cases, they are only interested in the short term. And they move trillions of resources on a daily basis. However, there is money out there that is looking for a more predicable economic environment and that is ready to invest long term. Let´s see if they get additional incentives to invest on productive and job generating activities now that Draghi has adopted a more proactive approach. 

Our attention lost sight of the Boko Haram girls

Boko Haram is still very much alive and kicking. They keep attacking civilians in Northeast Nigeria and making sure everybody understands that the federal government is just composed of a bunch of inept political opportunists. The school girls are yet to be freed. And the international security teams that came to help are now realising that corruption within the armed forces of Nigeria is a major handicap. A few generals have now been accused of selling weapons to the armed extremists. But that´s not enough to turn things around. And the world has lost sight of the girls and the extremism and moved its attention elsewhere. 

G7 in Brussels, a messy affair

Tomorrow Brussels will be hosting the G7 Summit. This was actually supposed to be a G8 thing. But the relations with the Russians being what they are now, we will only have seven of them in the room. The Russian ghost will however be there as well. That might be the main phantom. There will some others in the air: the banking and commercial tensions between Europe and the US, the lacklustre commitment of EU to collective defence, Syria, North Africa and, in the American minds, the growing armed instability in the South China Sea. All in all, including from a traffic perspective, Brussels will be messy. 

The waters of West Africa

The security challenges in the Gulf of Guinea are a new opportunity to promote cooperation between the key African States of the region, including Nigeria and Angola. They are also being used to enhance the political relations between those countries and States from outside the region. Brazil is one of those States. The US, of course, is particularly interested. And within the EU, Portugal has been a front player in terms of advancing the partnership agenda between Europe and West Africa.

My advice is that the partnership has to deal with fisheries protection – which key for the economy of the coastal populations of the region – as much as it deals with piracy and freedom of navigation. This dual approach is the only sustainable way forward. Without fishing the livelihood possibilities in the region will shrink further. And the illegal activities will be seen by many young people as one of the very few doors to remain open. 

Political imprudence

Some leaders never miss a chance to remind us they are just fools. Every new statement, every new proposal, all moves are like reminders of their mindlessness. But then I recall that Napoleon used to say that “in politics, stupidity is not a handicap”.

And I move on.

But now it seems we have another example. The French political leadership has now come to the conclusion they want a Frenchman as the new head of the European Commission. And the name of Pierre Moscovici has been mentioned. He was Hollande´s Finance Minister up to recently. Then, he lost some local election and had to leave his Cabinet position. Defeated by the voters in his community, that know him well, can he be a serious candidate for the top job in the European institutions?

Really? Or is it a joke we do not get?

Then Napoleon´s words came to mind. Not about Pierre, but about the one who is advancing his name. 

Juncker, yes, for the EU Commission

Jean-Claude Juncker might not be a new face in the EU block. But he is an experienced and safe pair of hands. And a serious man. As leader of the most voted EU political family he should be the next President of the European Commission. He needs the support of the heads of State and government, as he also requires the votes of the socialist group. That should be possible. The Socialists could see their leader, Martin Schulz, also a very able man even if not as experience as Juncker, take a key position in the Commission as compensation. Or reward him by keeping him as President of the European Parliament, a job he has done well.

Not to appoint Juncker would give the EU voters another reason to lose faith in the European elections.

There is, of course, the problem called David Cameron. He seems to have said that Juncker´s appointment would force him to move the date of the British referendum on Europe forward, to an earlier date. And he added that the British would vote then against the EU. Maybe. But in any case, the risk is high. Sooner or later, if there is a vote in the UK and in view of the current atmosphere, the chances of a negative vote are pretty high. That would be above all a British problem.  Europe would suffer a blow but the UK would receive the full impact of the wave.

UK´s position is important but it is not a reason to stop the process of appointing the EU head forward. 

Portuguese Socialist Party is like wildfire

Politics is not for the faint of heart. You cannot be afraid of fire. And you have to be in the kitchen all the time but also keep an eye on the outside yard. Nobody is going to give you an easy time, if you are a personality in politics.

In Portugal, the leader of the Socialist Party is getting that message. His party was the number one on Sunday European elections. But with less than 32% of the votes the Socialists were not far ahead from the governing coalition, with their 28% share. It was a tiny victory.

The party´s internal opposition to the current leader moved fast. On Tuesday their main figurehead, the mayor of Lisbon, was out in the media, to announce he was ready to fight for the party´s leadership and take over from the current secretary-general. The latter was not specially amused by such a move. In particular because he had signed, last year, a peace agreement with the Lisbon mayor, the same fellow that has now decided to challenge him. Furthermore, he learned about the challenge through the media.

The mayor is playing some big cards within the party, including Mario Soares, the party´s founder and godfather. The current Secretary-general, on his side, is playing the rules. His point is that is mandate is not over, that the statutes do not foresee a change at this time. The rules are indeed clear.

But in party politics the rules book changes pretty often. Like wildfires. They go with the direction of the wind. 

The mainstream media in Russia is a major propaganda tool

The Russian media campaigns in support of President Putin have now reached new peaks of propaganda. A friend was telling me that such campaigns are presently much more intense and loud than the propaganda carried out during the last ten years of the Soviet era.

President Obama´s foreign policy options

President Obama´s speech at West Point on foreign policy must be read with great attention. It shows the direction the US is taking in international affairs. It is clear about the priorities for the next two or three years, but is even clearer about the new doctrinal approaches. Including on the use of force abroad.

I still have to find time to peruse it carefully.  But it´s worth to do it shortly.

In Europe we have to keep in mind that the only option we have at this time of our history is to continue the strong and close defence alliance with the US. We are far away from a EU defence reality. And with the nationalism dragons on the way back to the front of the European political scene it is even more advisable to have the American glue to keep us wisely together in matters of military nature.