Politics and real life: two different worlds

On the day David Cameron announced the last Cabinet reshuffle I found myself wondering on the platform of Paddington Station, in London, watching the crowds coming out of the trains and rushing out of the building, all very focused on another day of work or any other business, and then I asked myself what is the relationship between politics and real life. I was unable to come up with a good answer. 

Putin´s plane

It is too early to fully grasp the possible impact of yesterday´s criminal action against the civilian airplane that killed so many innocent people. But it sounds very much as a turning point in the aggravation of the relations between the West and Russia.

The shooting down of the plane has shocked many people across the world. It makes it much easier to mobilise public opinion against the Russian leadership. I am sure that Vladimir Putin feels today under much greater pressure than before.

Such pressure might help to understand that the time has come for him to convince his men in Eastern Ukraine to change tactics and to envisage an end to the armed insurrection. If that could be the outcome of the tragedy than we would be better prepared to accept yesterday´s tragedy. But even then, we have to make sure that those who shot down the aircraft are brought to justice. These things cannot go unpunished. A credible international board of inquiry is a must. 

A plane too much

The shooting-down of the Malaysia Airlines plane is clearly the work of the separatists Russia supports in Ukraine.

The tragedy brings in two points: Russia has to stop its backing of these individuals; and the Kiev government has to assess its own capability to deal with the rebels. If the assessment concludes that the government forces cannot resolve the crisis in the very near future, then the solution is to ask for help from Ukraine´s friends. The point is that the armed violence has lasted for too long and should therefore be resolved without further ado. 

Juncker is now confirmed as the new EC President

Jean-Claude Juncker has just been confirmed, by a vote in the European Parliament, as the new President of the European Commission. The vote was good enough to give him a very good starting vantage point. He should be able to take over from José Manuel Barroso in a much stronger position than the one out-going Barroso has found himself during the last years of his mandate. This should be good news for the Commission´s future. It also puts the Commission in a better and more balanced footing when dealing with the Heads of State and Government.

Kerry is not welcome in today´s Israel

It is quite clear the Obama Administration is not welcome in Netanyahu´s Israel. With the current crisis having last for more than a week, and the very serious loss of civilian lives, it would have been appropriate to send John Kerry back to Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Ramallah. Furthermore, that trip would bring some credits back to the Americans, within the Arab world. But Washington knows this move would meet with Netanyahu´s opposition. Therefore, the Administration remains silent. Notwithstanding the noise coming from the fighter jets, the rockets, the human suffering and the death of many innocent civilians. 

Israel has to respond in a proportionate manner

Israel, as a close ally of the West, should be requested to behave with full respect for international law. In particular, it has to be told to be proportionate in the way it responds to the security threats coming from the other side of the wall. 

Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea: where are the root causes

At yesterday´s international meeting on Security in the Gulf of Guinea, convened by the Portuguese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, I built my intervention five security dimensions that are critical to understand the root causes of the challenges the region is facing.

They are:

          Widespread poverty, desperation, shrinking opportunities for survival –example, less fish available to the coastal communities – , advancing desertification, over-grazing and community conflicts, high cost of living; this is the livelihood dimension.

          Very high rate of population growth, domestic migrations, rapid urbanization, transfer of poverty to the cities, youth unemployment, marginalization and urban crime, armed gangs; the demographics dimension.

          Extremely weak State institutions in all sectors, including in the areas of national and domestic security; this is State ineffectiveness dimension.

          Governance and democratic deficits, human rights violations, widespread corruption and ineptitude, predatory elites; this is the governance dimension.

          Radicalisation and simplification of the political-religious discourse; the influence of radical preachers trained in and funded by Middle Eastern Countries; the identity and ethnicity as instruments of power and exclusion; this is the extremist dimension.

Israel and Palestine will be at it for a long time

The situation in Israel and Gaza is again at its worst. It reminds us, as it does so often, that there is no real mechanism to peacefully sort out major complex crises, if one or both sides believe that the only option that is left to them is through war. It is also a sharp and dramatic reminder of the ambivalence of the big powers. In this case, the US has shown that they cannot, for domestic political reasons, be part and judge of a conflict. You are either one or the other. And you assume it clearly.

I do not write often about this part of the world for a very simple reason. I do not see a solution to the conflict. This is one those violent disputes that will stay with us for another generation or two. In the meantime, people suffer and lives are just wasted. 

Illegal crossings and poor politics

The illegal crossing of the Mediterranean Sea by hundreds of African migrants is a daily occurrence. They sail off the Libyan coast and try to reach the Italian territory. But they have disappeared from the news. If one tries to read about these dramatic movements in any of the major European papers one just gets nowhere. The matter is being ignored anywhere outside Italy. And it has also disappeared from the discussions in the the EU fora. The issue, which is of course a common concern, is seen as an Italian matter. And then the Italians just let the migrants loose, in the hope they will move North and out of the country. Many of them will find indeed their way into the Calais area, in Northern France, just waiting for a chance to cross into the UK. Others will move into other EU countries. The issue is plainly out of control, all over the place, from the islands in Southern Italy to Brussels, London, Paris and elsewhere. Nobody cares. It is not in the news therefore does not exist...politically.  

Football is about national dreams

Football is big, big business. But it is also about politics. And in some cases, like in Belgium, it is also about strengthening national unity. The Belgian team has done its bit to bringing together the different communities of a divided country. Yesterday, their loss against Argentina, after a fair game, was in many ways a blow to a few more days of dream. Including the dream that people can unite because they share a common history and background, and also a number of interlinked interests.

Without dreams there is no future. The role of national footballers is to play it right. The role of leaders is also to be able to go for the right game.