Obama and Castro

I am telling my friends I fully support the approach President Obama has just adopted concerning Cuba.

It is time, indeed, to look at the relations with that country with the eyes of today and not with the perspective that has shaped our past.

It is easier to change the situation if we engage. Presence is influence. Presence is a launching pad to support change. And the people of Cuba are eager to see change in their country. Raul Castro understands it but he is constrained by his own personal history, his political relationships and the power base that keeps him at the head of the Party. But even he keeps stating the old things he is at the same time creating the conditions for a more democratic and more prosperous Cuba. We should be able to understand that. 

War by other means

The traditional approach to war between developed nations has now changed. We still have armies and defence institutions. They will continue to play the key role they are supposed to play: deterrence. They should therefore be fully supported. But besides dissuasion, they are of little practical use. Today, the economic and financial instruments of power play a much more effective role, if they are properly employed and if the political resolve is indeed in place. Financial measures can easily destroy value in the opponent´s camp and generate enough force for a negotiation process to start. That´s a new way of confronting the adversary. And it can be done openly – no need for deception and covert operations. Actually, it should be carried out with sufficient rhetoric. That would make sure the other side understands what´s at play and realises how important it is to yield. 

Leaders and demagogues

Just back from two days in Geneva. I was there to lead a workshop on peace building and crisis response and to deliver a lecture on responding to new types of conflicts. The audience was composed of mid-career professionals, both from the military and the civilian areas. They are in Geneva for an advance masters on peace studies but come from different corners of the world. Some of them will be, later in their professional life, important players in their own countries. They know that. And then, I shouldn't be surprised that several of the questions they raised to my attention were about leadership issues. The role of leaders, how to deal with rogue leaders, how to get leaders to lead.

Leadership in politics is indeed a very current topic. There are many that believe that leaders are not taking up their responsibilities. They are just chambers of resonance for the public opinion. And that´s not leadership. That´s demagogy. 

Getting closer to trouble

I am not a pessimist. I have actually no personal reason to be one. But as I look into the year that is about to start I get worried. There are a number of major geopolitical risks in the air. And the world economy is also closer to a new serious slowdown. In addition, in our part of the world people see their standard of living being threatened by new austerity measures, more taxes and poor availability of job opportunities. There is also a growing nationalistic sentiment in different corners of old Europe.

These are times of great challenges. They require courageous leaders. And we seem to be short of them as well. That´s what worries me most. 

Getting closer to 2015

In my regular opinion piece for the Portuguese weekly magazine Visão, a text I wrote this afternoon, I share my view that 2015 will be a year of great uncertainty.  The geopolitical tensions are on the increase. This time they involve major players, such as Russia, China, Japan and the US. This is no small fry. Furthermore, the economic and financial variables are more and more unpredictable. The oil price and its impact on the international financial flows as well as on the stability of countries such as Venezuela, Russia, Angola and Nigeria, and the entire Middle East, the diminished availability of cash for stocks and bonds, the trade restrictions as a result of political confrontations, the unemployment rates and the low paid jobs because of automation, and the dwindling of the middle classes in Europe and elsewhere, all these dimensions will bring new variables into a very complex economic equation. If you put on top of that activities of the international crime syndicates, and the mass immigration of young people, you are adding fuel to the fire.

That´s why we have to make the coming year a time of deep reflection about the common future of mankind. It´s time to think about the big picture again. 

Europe is heading towards nasty social confrontations

Europe´s cost of living is too high. In addition, the tax systems are too heavy. For many families the money is not just enough. And that explains, in many ways, why we have more and more nasty general strikes and street protests in countries that have been traditionally quiet. When the income is short, compared to the costs of living a basic life, any cut on salaries, pensions, subsidies or allocations makes a big difference. The problem is that we should expect more income reductions and therefore additional social conflicts. 

Human rights are the starting point for a better life

I am not sure North Korea celebrates Human Rights Day, as we do today.

And I am pleased that this year the day comes just after the publication of the report on CIA´s torture cases. That reminds us that human rights is a never-ending struggle, even in the old democracies of the West. Actually, my long trek over the world has made it clear that human rights issues, be them related to police brutality, violence against women or children´s slavery, or the freedom of speech for every individual, are the most critical issue people aspire for. A man or a woman might be poor. But he or she wants to be respected and given the space to take care of him or herself. That´s the true essence of life. Respect for each individual. And that´s a good starting point to encourage people to move out of poverty and despair. 

Hollande and Putin: a good move

President François Hollande´s stop in Moscow to meet President Vladimir Putin was certainly a smart diplomatic move. In international affairs, when there is a crisis, dialogue and personal, eye-to-eye contact are much better options than public statements and speeches.

You might ask what has come out of today´s meeting. Well, the answer is very simple: a clear message that the West considers that the partnership with Russia is critically important for both sides. Such a message should also keep the lines open. And we must have good quality lines to be able to engage in a productive conversation. Clarity comes out of exchanges of views.

It also comes out of lengthy meetings. In today´s case, two hours of discussions when only one hour was scheduled says a lot about the complexity of the dialogue that is needed. 

Reporting on war and weapons

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has just published its annual report, a flagship compilation of data and analysis about last year´s wars, military expenditures and weapons production and trade. It is an excellent reference document.

Unfortunately, it also shows that the world is indeed a dangerous place. And that international security remains a major concern in the field of international relations.

The UN and the regional organizations continue to play major roles in peace and security, notwithstanding their own contradictions and other shortcomings. The truth of the matter is that without them, the world would be even more insecure. It is also true that the cooperation between all these international organisations could be stronger and more effective. That remains a priority for the future. 

Putin´s paranoia and the people´s feelings about the West

President Putin´s speech on state of the Russian nation is pure Cold War vintage. The old ghosts are back in his words and his vision of the West´s relations with his country. He sees conspiracies against Russia in every move and every fact that happens in our part of the world. It´s pitiful view of a relationship that should be based on trust and cooperation instead of suspicion and blind competition. The only possible outcome of such a policy is further underdevelopment of the Russian society, both at the institutional and economic levels. And to aggravate things further, 72% of the Russian voters think the President´s approach is right. Putin´s narrative is synchronised with the people´s feelings of a nation that is great but that has never been appreciated by the West. These feelings and the narrative are difficult to change because there is very little room in the nation for those who would like to express a different view of things.

Russia´s is moving fast to become a major disaster at the footsteps of Europe. And that is for sure a matter that is of great concern for all of us in Europe.