Mourning

Today´s crash of a German airplane on the French Alps is very much in the news in our part of the world. The shock is deep. Everyone thinks of the families that have been so dramatically affected, in particular those parents who have lost their children in the accident.

 It is time to mourn. It is also time to call for a full disclosure of the findings once the investigation on the crash has been completed. People have the right to know. And so often people think that in these matters they are kept away from the truth of the facts. 

France is a pillar of the European project, it cannot fail

There has been, in the EU circles, serious concern about France´s political future and its impact on the European project. The rise of extremist parties, in particular the Front National, has left many people very worried. More so, in view of President Hollande´s poor leadership. He is definitely considered as too weak and incapable of fighting for a stronger Europe. Not even for a more proactive France within the European project.

But tonight, as the preliminary results of the French regional elections become known, there is a bit of hope. The Front National seems to be close to its electoral ceiling of 25%. And both Sarkozy´s party, on the right, and Hollande´s PS, are ahead of the Front. That´s good news. 

It´s important to finalise the nuclear agreement with Iran

Let´s hope there is a proper agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue. The region needs good news, and a new type of diplomatic relationships.

If there is one, we should trust the judgement of those negotiating it, from the Western side. They are no dupes.  

Greece has to move fast and show results

The Greek government has lost the last month trying to convince the European leaders to accept the merits of its approach to crisis management. In the current situation, a month is a long period of time for the Greeks. It is even longer when you achieve very little. It is hell, when you have empty pockets.

They should have listened to the advice coming from the key EU capitals: no programme implementation, no money. Such advice was repeated in Brussels last night, when a side mini-summit brought together the Greek prime minister, Angela Merkel, François Hollande and a couple of other senior people, Greece was once more invited to cooperate with the rest of the UE. Money was promised. It should be released when the Greeks start moving along the reform path.

Listening today to the Greek Prime Minister I got the impression he has not yet realised that time is running out. Money is getting very thin in the government´s drawers. And the political support they had in Europe is evaporating fast. It would be better for his government and his people to show they can implement the agreed reforms. The sooner they do it the better for them and for Europe´s cohesiveness. 

Supporting Tunisia is in our own European interest

Last week, in the middle of a discussion about the Arab changes and democratisation processes, I made a strong point to my European friends about Tunisia. The line was very simple: we should encourage EU tourists to visit the country as a way of helping the country to overcome the current economic slowdown. We should also put pressure on the travel agencies to bring Tunisia back as a highly recommended destination. And we should recognize the country as an example within the North African region and be clear about our support to its political transformation.

In this context, yesterday´s terrorist action against foreign tourists, with very heavy loss of life, is a major setback, besides being a great tragedy for the victims. If the forces that oppose democratic change and liberty wanted to cause serious damage to Tunisia they managed to achieve their aims yesterday. The tourism sector is now ready to collapse. This will have a deep impact on the country´s economy and it will create additional social hardships.

Our role, as EU friends of the Arab positive change, is to call for more EU assistance to Tunisia, on an extraordinary basis, as a bridging package, to give the country a chance to rebuild its image as a safe destination. Part of such assistance should include a strong security component. We ought to keep in mind that success on the Southern banks of the Mediterranean Sea are vital for our European interests. 

Sad news from the Middle East

The electoral victory of Israel´s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is another piece of bad news for the Middle East. It adds fuel to the existing many crises. The EU and the international community have lost leverage in the region. Tony Blair´s mediation job has been a disaster. The new EU envoy, the Italian diplomat Fernando Gentilini, will have almost no room for manoeuvre. His appointment serves the High Representative’s personal agenda of appointing people loyal to her but brings no political leverage and no hope. In many ways, it is a silent recognition that there is very little the EU can do in the region. I do not see Netanyahu losing any moment of his time talking to the envoy. I actually do not see anyone at this stage able to establish any kind of bridge in the region.

Notice to my readers

This daily notes will be absent for the next four weeks, for reasons of a very demanding commitment.

I will come back to the daily writing on 16 March 2015.

I am counting on your coming back as well.

Thank you to all.

VA

Copenhagen: again the desperate lone wolf

The killings in Copenhagen have shown again that the “lone wolf” has become a significant danger in our societies. This type of solitary killer is basically a younger person who has had serious problems of social integration. He – or she – might also have spent some time in the petty crime circles, with eventually some time served in prison. The killing spree is some kind of swan song. The last expression of a desperation. 

The Copenhagen drama has also shown that such actions are very difficult to prevent. A country can have the best police services in the world, the best integration systems, the best social security schemes, and still be vulnerable to these acts. We have to learn to live with a certain degree of insecurity. And protect the possible targets, as the Danes did, the best we can.

These are complex matters. They are above all criminal acts that are practiced by criminal minds with a strong dose of madness. It would be a very serious mistake to link them just to a community of citizens and put some generalized blame on such community. We condemn the killings, we condemn the perpetrator and we add, the responsibility rests clearly with him.  

Boko Haram requires a powerful and urgent response

At the very beginning of the year my magazine´s editor-in-chief at Visão asked me to write about Africa in 2015. I did. And I spent most of the allocated space focusing on Nigeria, as the country to watch this year. Within Nigeria, the key issue I mentioned was of course Boko Haram. I also said that Boko Haram would be spreading out towards the neighbouring countries. And that´s very much the case today. This terrorist group is not only a major threat to the stability of Nigeria, It is also a serious menace for Niger, Cameron and Chad. As such, it calls for a major international alliance to deal with it. The sooner the international community addresses this very serious problem the better. Nigeria can´t do it. And Chad alone, notwithstanding the strength of its armed forces, is not enough. 

Putin´s litmus test

The new Minsk agreement will be in many ways the litmus test about President Putin´s sincerity. I really hope he will come out of it with high marks, as someone true to his word. The moment is grave and we cannot afford to have deeper crisis with Russia. They actually cannot afford either. So, let´s be hopeful about the ceasefire even we hear quite a number of voices expressing their doubts. We need the Minsk agreement to hold.