Wishing the new Portuguese government well

We have now a new government in Portugal. It is a Socialist-based team but with the support of two left-wing parties, as they like to call themselves: the Leftist Block, some kind of SYRIZA-like group, and Communist Party, a very Conservative assembly of old and new nostalgic fellows who still believe that the fall of Soviet Union was a major disaster.

However, Antonio Costa, the new Prime-minister has been wise enough to put together a Cabinet that can be perceived as relatively moderate. And in his inaugural speech, Costa made the right use of the word “moderation”.

It is true that not everyone within the Socialist Party is for moderation. But if the leader pulls in the right direction, the rest might follow. They will keep in mind that in our type of democracy one´s political survival is very much related to being able to say yes to the Party leader.

The key question is about Parliamentary support. How long will Costa be able to keep the votes of its allies before a major political row takes place? There will be a fracture, I have no doubt about it. The point is that we don´t know how soon it will happen.

In the meantime, one should wish the new ministers good sailing, favourable winds. 

Politics are about choices

Moderation and alliances should be the key drivers in international politics. Moderation can only be based on principles and values. And alliances are only to be sought with those who share the principles and values that guide our own actions.

Russia should follow a diplomatic approach

It would be a serious misjudgment to ignore the gravity of today´s incident between Turkey and Russia. Both countries are led by hawks and when that type of birds clash one gets hurt. It is therefore in our interest, as NATO allies, and in the interest of a political solution to the conflict in Syria to help both sides to de-escalate the confrontation.

One can expect a political response from the Russian side. And that´s acceptable. But it should remain a diplomatic move. Everything beyond that could easily get out of control. 

Brussels is living in slow motion

The state of high alert will continue for a third day tomorrow in Brussels. We will start the new week in slow motion. More importantly, the schools, at every level of education, will be closed. We will have to explain to the very young the reasons.

Many people are criticizing the decision to extend the period of alert. They think it is unwarranted, that it only serves the purpose of showing that the government is finally taking action. And they talk about the negative economic impact of such a decision.

In these matters, my advice is clear: let´s trust the authorities. We have no other choice. And we need to believe they are being responsible. In matters of security, to be responsible means to minimize the risk until you understand more precisely the nature of the threat and are in a better position to respond to it.

Let´s believe that´s what is taking place. 

No fear

Brussels was a special place today. The government decided to increase the security level to high alert, to the maximum degree. And the city went into a lockdown. 

It was a strange, sad day. It could be seen as a victory for those who want to disturb our way of living. 

Fortunately, it happened during the week end. I am sure on Monday we will be back to our daily routines. We cannot succumb to any menaces coming from some crazy young fellows. Our institutions are certainly stronger that those deranged fellows that hide behind radical ideas and criminal plots. 

African Union

I am just back from meetings at the African Union in Addis Ababa. 

And I should add that I was impressed by the clarity of the messages I got from the AU Commissioner for Peace and Security. He and his team have a clear understanding of the challenges at hand. They have also the right approach when it comes to dealing with them.

 The point is that the African response capacity remains weak. It should therefore be strengthened by the external partners to Africa. That strengthening would be in the interest of stability and human rights in Africa, but it would also serve the long term interests of Europe and others outside Africa. 

But for it to work it has to be part of the AU priorities and advocacy efforts. 

In Macau

I have been in Macau for a few days. And the more I know about this Special Administrative Region the more I appreciate its dynamism and charm.

Macau´s total area is certainly small but its business districts are pretty diverse and worth the walk. I also found a number of new “avant-garde” boutiques, including some with very creative pieces of art on display. They tell us that Macau is more than just a good number of extravagantly huge casinos.

Moreover, the University institutions are now very well established. They do attract quite a number of students from Mainland and beyond. 

Populism and its ghosts

I realised I am speaking too often against populist leaders. Every time I am asked about the current European challenges, the word populism pops up in one or more of my sentences. Is it that I am seeing too many ghosts and witches around? Or is there a real reason to be worried, as we regard ahead and try to see how the European Union is going to respond to some of the very salient challenges it faces?

Flying over the Sinai Peninsula

The Sinai plane crash raises a couple of chief questions. It has to be seriously and independently investigated. It would be unacceptable to see any kind of national political considerations masking the truth. There is such a risk, I am afraid.

People should know the causes. The next wave of tourists, of course, and all those flying over the region – it is an important corridor for aircraft going or coming out of the Gulf States – but also the relatives of those who lost their lives on Saturday. 

President Erdogan ´s victory should be an opportunity for moderation

President Erdogan´s party has won today´s general elections in Turkey. As the victory is not a political tsunami, but enough to give him a solid majority in the national Parliament, one could hope for a certain degree of moderation to be restored to Turkish politics.

This is however very unlikely. I am afraid Erdogan will continue to press for a domestic agenda that combines religious conservatism with a strong shade of despotism. But he can count with very serious civil society demonstrations. People in the big cities are not really prepared for additional limitations to their freedoms. In addition, the Kurdish question will not fade away. It is actually calling for a renewed approach to dialogue and reconciliation. Erdogan cannot respond to such a call with weapons, arrests and brute force.

On the external front, Erdogan will have to play a constructive role in Syria. That´s his most important contribution to peace and stability in the region. He will be also under some kind of European pressure to bring under control the human trafficking that is taking place on the Turkish shores of the Mediterranean Sea. To claim he is in charge and at the same time allow free space for traffickers and other criminal elements to take advantage of the human misery is a major contradiction that needs to be exposed.

The leaders within the EU have also to be better at defining a common approach to Ankara. Such an approach cannot be dictated by despair, by the leaders´ incapacity to deal with the refugee flows that have their assembly points in Turkey.