G8 and GZero

On the eve of this year’s G8 meeting, Syria remains the key issue. It is also a complex and divisive matter, not just because of the different approaches Russia and the West are following but also on the question of arms for the opposition. The meeting will come and go and unfortunately we will see no progress, no agreement on a political roadmap for this deeply tragic crisis. It is indeed easier to talk about weapons than to device a peace process. 

Iran's presidential elections

The news coming from Iran is good. Hassan Rouhani’s presidential victory sends a very strong signal that the people of Iran want political change, including a better relationship with the West. He will have now to navigate the complex relations that define the power landscape of the country to be able to consolidate his position without raising too much resistance from the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the hardliners that sustain the regime.

The West has also to show political wisdom and send a signal that they are ready to engage with the new leader. For starters, they should congratulate him on his election, even if the electoral process had some flaws. It helps to say congratulations, even if as just a diplomatic move. 

Obama's red line on Syria

The US Administration has now found evidence that the Syrian army made use – “limited use” – of chemical weapons.

This is, for the Americans, the crossing of a red line. Washington has therefore decided to provide military assistance to the rebels' Supreme Military Council (SMC) and Syrian Opposition Coalition.

It is yet unclear what that type of assistance the new development entails. Things will become much clearer in the next days. What is clear today is that the rebellions are under serious pressure from the Assad troops. Only massive and urgent aid from the outside world might be able to save them. Or, I do not thing that President Obama is thinking of anything that might be massive and urgent. In that case, any low-grade military assistance at this stage will not change the current trend on the ground. 

Weak EU leadership

It is becoming fashionable in some of the European leading circles to blame the IMF for the failure of some financial adjustment programmes such as the Greek or the Portuguese. It is as if the EU Commission and the European Central Bank, the two other members of the Troika that has negotiated such programmes on behalf of the international creditors, had just been compelled to go along with the IMF.

Nothing is less true. In many ways, it has been the EU Commission that had shown up to recently the most dogmatic approach to programme design and its implementation. They have been the ones pushing some very single-minded ideas such as labour cost reductions and a short-term approach to fiscal corrections. Now, having realised that the public opinion is turning in large numbers against these measures, they backtrack and blame the weaker member of the group.

This shows again that the European leadership feels corralled against the wall and has no guts to fight back for their position.  

EU needs to change coaches

A man that knows the EU well told me this evening that the high rates of unemployment are turning people against the European project. The first line of attack is against the Euro currency, he added. More and more people are looking at the common currency as an impediment for “their” nation’s recovery.  He also told me that there is serious concern in the leading circles of the EU as they see public opinion turning gradually against the Euro in a number of countries.

I told him if the common project were a football team the solution would be very clear: let’s fire the coach and get a new one. 

Mandela, an exemplary leader

Our thoughts today are with Nelson Mandela. We owe him much, as an exemplary leader and a politician that transformed his time, not to feel very sorry as he struggles with illness and old age. 

Too big a machinery for tiny gains

National security is a critical function of any state. But it has to be carried out in a reasonable and legal manner, with full respect for the rights and liberties of the citizens. It should not become an obsession, an over-riding set of operations that want to cover everything, collect all kinds of information, employ disproportionate means and spend extravagant amounts of money.  

What we have been told during the last few days shows that in the area of national security it is very easy to go over the limits and be guided by the interests of those who work in the sector rather than by the nation’s interest.

It is also pretty easy to drown in an ocean of useless information, that is collected just to justify the size of the machinery, and lose sight of the targets that really matter. 

Bilderberg: a Western old men's joke

Today you and I know that we do not matter. Our names are not in the list of those attending this year’s Bilderberg Conference. This is annual secret get-together of politicians and businessmen that many see as the plotting house of the world. It is indeed a very secretive meeting, its list of attendees is small but powerful, and there are many conspiracy theories about the contents and intent of such annual meetings.

In the 2013 edition, that is just under way in the UK for the first time – the tradition is to have the meetings in the US – there are about 140 participants. Only 14 are women, which seems to show that when it comes to combining power and secrecy the big men do not trust the other gender. Also very interesting, almost everyone in attendance, with one exception, I think, is from a North-American or West European background. This seriously undermines the importance of the Bilderberg process: the world today is much bigger than the White Circles of the West. Even when those circles are bankers, media gurus, and their politicians. 

Syria's humanitarian disaster

The UN humanitarian appeal for Syria, launched today in Geneva, is the largest in the history of the organization: US $4.4 billion, to cover the basic needs up to the end of the year. This stunning figure gives a clear indication of the size of the humanitarian disaster that is taking place in Syria and in the refugee camps, just outside the country.  The survival of about 50% of Syria’s population is at risk.

Is the appeal going to be responded to? Very often these days such calls are addressed to ears that pretend to be deaf. Let’s see, for instance, if all those governments that have been very quick at approving the supply of arms to both sides in conflict are as fast when it comes to the humanitarian dimensions. 

Erdogan's game

I do not think Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish Prime Minister, is not listening to the protesters in Istanbul and elsewhere in the country. In my opinion, he is very much aware of the reasons for the demonstrations. He knows that many people in the big cities are opposed to his politics of “cultural change”. But he is inspired by a very strict approach to religion and does not want to give up. He thinks he is in a mission, to bring Islam back to the centre of public life in Turkey. He knows that many traditional sectors of society welcome that kind of approach. Therefore, there is political mileage in pursuing it, he believes. As he also seems to believe that he can do with the opponents in the cities as he did with the top military officers: to intimidate them, to put the leaders in prison, under bizarre charges, to invent treason plots, to silence them. He might be convinced he will succeed. I wouldn’t be so sure.