France and the serial blunder

The French have found a new punching bag: it is called Barroso. They are all out against him. They have looked at old closets and found a number of blunders he is credited with. This is a way of making sure people understand that the man is serial disaster.

It is much easier when the blame can be placed elsewhere. Incompetent people just love that! And when the blame is put on a foreigner it’s even better!

Poor France, some would say!

Brazil is not listening to Dilma Rousseff

I talked to friends in Brazil to discuss the aftermath of President Dilma Rousseff’s address to the country. I had found her speech wise and conciliatory and wanted to know my friends’ opinion about it. And also get a bit of the mood these days.

Apparently, the speech has not been listened to. Many urban people seem too eager to continue the street rallies and the social network campaigns. They have little hope that the current leadership will be strong enough to change the political system. And that is the kind of change they aspire for.  A good number believe that it is time to bring to power a different type of politicians. And many mention the name of the Supreme Court President, Justice Joaquim Barbosa. He is certainly an example people like to refer to.

And a name to keep watching. 

The losing side

The true message that came out of today’s Friends of Syria meeting is that the many rebellions are losing the war. That’s the actual trend on the ground. New weapons for a divided, weakened opposition are just a way of effectively playing on Assad’s hand. He will have a justification to continue the military option, which has given him a new breath of life, and an excuse to postpone any negotiated solution. In the end, the Syrian population will be the real loser. 

A new ball game in town

The social media networks have become major tools when it comes to rallying people and bringing them to the streets. Twitter, Facebook, Whats App, blogs, and many others –the list is very vast –, have been used in the Arab Spring revolutions, in Turkey, and now in Brazil, to disseminate political messages and call for demonstrations.  All of them are free, easy to access, and very common among the young and the urban folks. These two categories of people are, by far, the main source of opposition to any government in the world. In addition, social media tools work better with very short messages, very direct and therefore very easy to apprehend and internalize. 

Brazil's class politics

Recently I spent about three weeks in Brazil. And I wrote, in the Portuguese weekly magazine Visao, where I am their international affairs columnist, that I found a better country than fifteen years ago. Indeed, Brazil is a much safer place, with a striving economy and a growing international agenda. But I also said that the cost of living is exceptionally high, the currency overvalued –which benefits the urban rich that love to travel abroad –and the police too close to the interests of the rich and powerful.

Since then, the country has been headline news. The riots in many urban centres reveal the malaise that many Brazilians experience. This malaise is a composite feeling that is fed by several streams: corruption, low politics, high cost of living, poorly performing public services and wide social disparities. In addition, life in the big cities can be extenuating just because of the time it takes to move from home to work and vice-versa.

The demonstrations also show that the urban middle class is deeply against the ruling party, Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT, President Dilma’s party. They see this party as something close to the populism prevailing in other parts of South America, a party that is too keen in taxing the better-off in order to give subsidies to the insouciant masses. For them this is not social justice, it is lefty power politics. 

Eastern Europe's commerce

During my recent road trips in the Benelux, I have seen a very visible increase of Baltic, mainly from Latvia, and other Eastern European trucks, ferrying all kinds of goods left and right. This is certainly good news. The greater the economic inter-dependency the better it is for Europe.  

The "reactionary French"

The comments made by the EU Commission President about the “reactionary” French protectionism” are very brave but extremely undiplomatic. Barroso in his interview to the International Herald Tribune said: “Some say they belong to the left, but in fact they are culturally extremely reactionary”. This is a very direct reference to the French President and his position that the trade agreement discussions between the EU and the US should not include “cultural goods”.  France wants to protect its film and music industries from the American might.

Why did Barroso, who is generally very prudent, go that far? He might know something about his future as head of the Commission that we do not know yet. 

G8 and GZero

On the eve of this year’s G8 meeting, Syria remains the key issue. It is also a complex and divisive matter, not just because of the different approaches Russia and the West are following but also on the question of arms for the opposition. The meeting will come and go and unfortunately we will see no progress, no agreement on a political roadmap for this deeply tragic crisis. It is indeed easier to talk about weapons than to device a peace process. 

Iran's presidential elections

The news coming from Iran is good. Hassan Rouhani’s presidential victory sends a very strong signal that the people of Iran want political change, including a better relationship with the West. He will have now to navigate the complex relations that define the power landscape of the country to be able to consolidate his position without raising too much resistance from the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the hardliners that sustain the regime.

The West has also to show political wisdom and send a signal that they are ready to engage with the new leader. For starters, they should congratulate him on his election, even if the electoral process had some flaws. It helps to say congratulations, even if as just a diplomatic move. 

Obama's red line on Syria

The US Administration has now found evidence that the Syrian army made use – “limited use” – of chemical weapons.

This is, for the Americans, the crossing of a red line. Washington has therefore decided to provide military assistance to the rebels' Supreme Military Council (SMC) and Syrian Opposition Coalition.

It is yet unclear what that type of assistance the new development entails. Things will become much clearer in the next days. What is clear today is that the rebellions are under serious pressure from the Assad troops. Only massive and urgent aid from the outside world might be able to save them. Or, I do not thing that President Obama is thinking of anything that might be massive and urgent. In that case, any low-grade military assistance at this stage will not change the current trend on the ground.