In Turkey, the time for arresting senior police officers has arrived

Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey is back on the offensive against his country´s institutions. This evening we are told that more than a hundred senior police officers have been arrested on very doubtful charges, including phone tapping.

The true reason is that Erdogan is a revengeful man. He cannot forget, and certainly not forgive, that these police officers have dared to investigate corruption matters within the leading circles of government, including possible ill actions carried out by the Prime Minister himself and his own family.

They will pay for doing their job.

As the top military officers have paid for being an objective and solid institution.

This is not the kind of leadership that can take the issue of EU membership forward. 

EU and Russia: sanctions and cooperation, the two sides of the coin

I have just finished my opinion piece of this week for Visão, a well-read general news magazine that is published every Thursday in Lisbon. This time the theme had to be about the relations between the EU and Russia, in the aftermath of the shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines plane.

My points are that we have to combine much tougher and better targetted economic sanctions against key Russian enterprises, including Rosneft, making sure they cannot access the European financial markets, with a continuous invitation for political dialogue between Europe and Russia. In the end, both blocs need each other. Russia, sooner or later, will require EU capital, technology and markets to develop its Far East. And Europe has a lot to gain by participating in the economic development of its big neighbour.

However the long term view cannot ignore the realities of today. And the key message here is that Russia has to fully implement the Helsinki Act of 1975 about peace and cooperation in Europe and non-interference in the internal affairs of other states. 

In Hindsight: Sanctions : July 2014 Monthly Forecast : Security Council Report

In Hindsight: Sanctions : July 2014 Monthly Forecast : Security Council Report

Politics and real life: two different worlds

On the day David Cameron announced the last Cabinet reshuffle I found myself wondering on the platform of Paddington Station, in London, watching the crowds coming out of the trains and rushing out of the building, all very focused on another day of work or any other business, and then I asked myself what is the relationship between politics and real life. I was unable to come up with a good answer. 

Putin´s plane

It is too early to fully grasp the possible impact of yesterday´s criminal action against the civilian airplane that killed so many innocent people. But it sounds very much as a turning point in the aggravation of the relations between the West and Russia.

The shooting down of the plane has shocked many people across the world. It makes it much easier to mobilise public opinion against the Russian leadership. I am sure that Vladimir Putin feels today under much greater pressure than before.

Such pressure might help to understand that the time has come for him to convince his men in Eastern Ukraine to change tactics and to envisage an end to the armed insurrection. If that could be the outcome of the tragedy than we would be better prepared to accept yesterday´s tragedy. But even then, we have to make sure that those who shot down the aircraft are brought to justice. These things cannot go unpunished. A credible international board of inquiry is a must. 

A plane too much

The shooting-down of the Malaysia Airlines plane is clearly the work of the separatists Russia supports in Ukraine.

The tragedy brings in two points: Russia has to stop its backing of these individuals; and the Kiev government has to assess its own capability to deal with the rebels. If the assessment concludes that the government forces cannot resolve the crisis in the very near future, then the solution is to ask for help from Ukraine´s friends. The point is that the armed violence has lasted for too long and should therefore be resolved without further ado. 

Juncker is now confirmed as the new EC President

Jean-Claude Juncker has just been confirmed, by a vote in the European Parliament, as the new President of the European Commission. The vote was good enough to give him a very good starting vantage point. He should be able to take over from José Manuel Barroso in a much stronger position than the one out-going Barroso has found himself during the last years of his mandate. This should be good news for the Commission´s future. It also puts the Commission in a better and more balanced footing when dealing with the Heads of State and Government.

Kerry is not welcome in today´s Israel

It is quite clear the Obama Administration is not welcome in Netanyahu´s Israel. With the current crisis having last for more than a week, and the very serious loss of civilian lives, it would have been appropriate to send John Kerry back to Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Ramallah. Furthermore, that trip would bring some credits back to the Americans, within the Arab world. But Washington knows this move would meet with Netanyahu´s opposition. Therefore, the Administration remains silent. Notwithstanding the noise coming from the fighter jets, the rockets, the human suffering and the death of many innocent civilians. 

Israel has to respond in a proportionate manner

Israel, as a close ally of the West, should be requested to behave with full respect for international law. In particular, it has to be told to be proportionate in the way it responds to the security threats coming from the other side of the wall. 

Insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea: where are the root causes

At yesterday´s international meeting on Security in the Gulf of Guinea, convened by the Portuguese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, I built my intervention five security dimensions that are critical to understand the root causes of the challenges the region is facing.

They are:

          Widespread poverty, desperation, shrinking opportunities for survival –example, less fish available to the coastal communities – , advancing desertification, over-grazing and community conflicts, high cost of living; this is the livelihood dimension.

          Very high rate of population growth, domestic migrations, rapid urbanization, transfer of poverty to the cities, youth unemployment, marginalization and urban crime, armed gangs; the demographics dimension.

          Extremely weak State institutions in all sectors, including in the areas of national and domestic security; this is State ineffectiveness dimension.

          Governance and democratic deficits, human rights violations, widespread corruption and ineptitude, predatory elites; this is the governance dimension.

          Radicalisation and simplification of the political-religious discourse; the influence of radical preachers trained in and funded by Middle Eastern Countries; the identity and ethnicity as instruments of power and exclusion; this is the extremist dimension.