OPEC is moribund

OPEC, the oil countries organization, is less and less relevant. It´s deeply divided, it´s unable to attract new member states to join the 12 that make it, and its total production is less than one third of the overall oil production figure.

Today´s meeting has shown the impasse the organization is in. And the price of oil has tumbled as a result. 

What to think of Juncker´s economic plan?

Jean-Claude Juncker´s plan for economic recovery and expansion has now been presented to the European Parliament. It will be important to follow the parliamentary debate during the next few sessions, to see if this is a plan with wings and able to fly or just another heavy monster chained to cannon balls made of interests and flat ideas. 

EEAS: too many chiefs and few foot soldiers

I spent some time yesterday discussing with staff from the European External Action Service. And I got the impression they are a bit overstretched. Great staff but overwhelmed by the work, the complicated bureaucratic processes and the meetings they have to attend to. The lists of assignments keep growing, the level of ambition is huge, and the eagerness to take additional responsibilities is deeply rooted in the culture of the service. But the number of Indians available to carry out the work seems to me to be insufficient. Actually, the EEAS appears to be heavy on bosses and chiefs, and certainly very light on the question of work bees. 

Each country decides about its political options, including its international alliances

Sovereignty belongs to the people. This is a major political principle. It is a key pillar of today´s international relations. I might come from a small country, but the direction things take at home is my prerogative and of my fellow citizens. We choose. In today´s world, and particularly after the decolonisation and the fall of the Soviet empire, there is no need to ask for the neighbours ‘permission to opt for this or that political choice. It is our right. It is the right of each countries ‘citizens. We might be wrong but in the end we are the ones that will pay for the consequences. And we are ready for that. The only rule we have to take into account is about remaining within international values and conventions. We can decide about making an alliance left or right. We cannot however decide to violate human rights codes or discriminate against minorities, for instance. It is important to keep that in mind. 

Let´s support Tunisia

The Tunisian presidential elections – the first round was held today – are important for the country´s citizens, obviously, but also for the image of Arab revolutions.

Tunisia was the first country to undergo a major political change based on mass demonstrations. It is today the best example of democratization in the Arab world, notwithstanding the many problems the country is still confronted with. And all the friends of Tunisia and democracy in that part of the planet would like it to continue to be a good example. Even if we know that there are many dimensions that are far from being good, including some related to the old oligarchy, its corrupted practices and its attempts to highjack the process, we need to be able to say that there is pluralism, tolerance and rule of law in a country that shares its borders with states that are still in deep crisis.

We should also be able to convince the tourists to go back to Tunisia and all types of investors to look at the country´s potential. 

NATO countries should offer support to Kenya

It´s quite obvious that Kenya is a frontline country in the fight against armed and terrorist groups. The key NATO countries should engage more with Kenya and offer whatever support might be required to strengthen the capacity of the national authorities to do the necessary intelligence work and fight the terrorist organisations operating in the country or nearby.  

Respect the national choices and you have peace

Ukraine should be able to decide about its own future. That´s the basic rule when it comes to national sovereignty. And sovereignty is still a basic tenet in terms of defining the relations between states. Even in out interdependent world, even in a more integrated Europe, sovereignty is, in the end, the fundamental pillar of any nation. 

Sanctions have an impact on the views around President Putin

In the last few months, the Russian rouble has lost 30% of its dollar value. This is directly linked to the sanctions the Western countries have put in place against Russia´s economic and financial interests. And on top of it, there is a strong fall in the price of oil, which is a key export commodity in Russia. 

All of this bites and cannot be immediately addressed by alternative ties with China and other economies. Such ties take time to produce effects. Russia is confronted with short-term challenges. It is true they have a huge sovereign fund. That gives the leadership some space. But is it enough? One start getting reports of divergent approaches within the leadership. These needs to be further investigated. 

Rethinking peace operations

I spent the end of last week in Oslo at the invitation of the Norwegian Foreign Ministry. The aim was to review their support to peace operations during the past years and to reflect about future assistance. Norway is a small country but a big player in areas of peace and conflict resolution, as well as a very committed supporter of bilateral approaches. They are particularly keen in strengthening the African Union´s peace machinery and also the UN´s.

But peace operations, as they are implemented by those two organisations, are under serious stress. The new types of menaces, the nature of conflict in many parts of the world, the challenges the West is facing in non-Western societies, are some of the key issues that call for a rethink of the deployments. The models followed up to now are no longer suited for the violence we meet today, be it in the Central African Republic, in Nigeria, in the North of Africa or in the Middle East.

The discussion is ongoing. But it can´t take long. The crises call for quick responses, early results and smart political processes. 

People´s power is based on information and access to social media as well

The big banks are all under serious scrutiny. Their public image is at present very shaky. Every day we get news that more wrong-doings have been uncovered and that new huge fines have been decided against some banks. Very soon the public opinion will start asking questions about the bankers, not just the banks. People will expect individuals to be brought to the book.

At a time of mass access to information and widespread use of social media as a communication tool, one has to realise that all those in position of power, be it political, economic or financial, will be very exposed to the public eye. This is a new age of transparency. And in many aspects, it´s a new way of creating mechanisms of power control. Change is indeed taking place. Power is being challenged.