Obama and Xi

Excellent speech by President Obama on the occasion of the Chinese President´s visit to the White House. He said the right things about cyber security, human rights, peace and cooperation in Asia and the economic ties between the two countries.

I am sure that President Xi Jinping, who is an astute and experienced player, will reflect about what Obama has said. And his first take will be about respect. Xi might not have liked what he heard but he will recognise that the current US President is a man of courage. And my experience tells me that a genuine leader appreciates courage in politics. It is actually a rare commodity, as many prefer an opportunistic approach.

Not Obama. 

Russia is moving to Syria

There is a debate going on about Russia´s intentions in Syria. The reinforcement of their airbase in the port city of Latakia goes far beyond force protection and self-defence considerations. It is a big move. It looks like creating a big logistics base for a deeper mission in Syria.

The next few days should allow us to have a better understanding of the Russian plans in that country. They should also give us a hint of Moscow´s plans regarding their presence in the region. 

Crazy Volkswagen leaders

The Volkswagen fraudulent approach to diesel-related emissions is most shocking. How could such a major corporation, one of the largest and most solid in the world, believe that cheating would go unnoticed and would bring them additional market share?

This is another eye-opener in today´s world. A very damaging one for that matter. The credibility of this company and all the related makes – VW, Seat, Porsche, Audi – is seriously affected. They will probably survive the crisis but with significant losses in terms of future sales and prestige. However, the greatest damage will be inflicted in all of us that have gradually lost confidence in traditional politics, then on banking, afterwards on promises of international solidarity, and now on car manufacturers.

This is another very heavy blow on trust and values. It is also a deep stain on Germany´s industrial and business elites.

It is at the same time, however, a reminder that we live in open societies. Openness leads to exposure and that´s the most effective way of dealing with the dishonesty of the powerful people, including those who believe, because they earn scandalous salaries and benefits, that they are well above the common mortals we are. 

The Pope´s approach

Pope Francis is in Cuba. And his visit shows that principles, diplomacy and attitude can immensely contribute to progressive change. It reminds us that today´s levers of power have a lot to do with values and approaches and much less to do with sanctions and military means. Sanctions and guns have some weight, no doubt about that. But their impact remains limited. They have to be part and parcel of a much larger approach. They have their moment. And then there is a time when they are no longer the best way forward.

That´s what is happening today in Cuba.

And we are fortunate that President Obama fully understands the change that is taking place. 

Burkina Faso must return to the democratic path

Burkina Faso is one of the better educated countries in West Africa. And its population is young and dynamic. There is in addition a good sense of national identity and cohesiveness. It is therefore unacceptable to see the Presidential Guard take over the executive power, stop the transition to democratic rule and try to bring back the former President, Blaise Compaoré. The coup d´état, carried out a couple of days ago, must be condemned firmly by all the friends of such an interesting and promising country. It would be a serious disservice to Africa if France and others in the EU would be seen as hesitating in their condemnation of the coup. 

Tell your story

In today´s developed and democratic societies, every political move, every key institution, every public action boils down to perception. More than the facts and the messages the political and social actors put across, what counts in the end is the way they are perceived and understood by the citizen. That´s why today´s wars are not just about fire power. Guns and bullets are still a deterrent, but not good enough. Wars, as well as any political fight, are gained and lost in the narrative that is communicated to people. 

About political action

In politics, style matters. Today´s politics call for people that look serious, modest and concerned with real problems as they are faced by the people. Rhetoric is now about sounding sincere and clear, nothing else. 

The migrations seen from Riga

As it has been the case in the last five years, I am spending a good part of September in Riga. It´s not about tourism, even if Riga is a great place to visit. In the recent years, the conversations would be about the relations with the big neighbour to the East. There are still many strong feelings about the matter. This year is different. The key topic in most of the discussions is related to the immigration of people from outside the EU and the impact of such large movements on the European project. There is fear, here in a country that believes deeply in its relationship with the rest of the EU, fear that the mass arrivals might put too much strain on the Schengen approach and on the free movement of the Europeans themselves. 

The EU chaos

It´s hard to believe the EU is not able to have a common approach to a matter as serious as the mass arrival of refugees and other migrants. More disturbingly though is to observe that some governments have lost control of the situation. It will take ages to regain the lost authority. In the meantime, the impact of this uncontrolled movements needs to be closely monitored and the appropriate mitigation measures must be implemented. As it is also necessary rebuild the confidence between the leaders of the different member states and ensure that there is no populist gain made out of this most incredible disarray. 

UK Labour Party got an interesting Leader

It´s official, Jeremy Corbyn is the new Leader of the UK´s Labour Party. He comes from outside the party´s mainstream. His ideas are much closer to the radical Left than to those Labour has advocated since the late 90s, when Blair came to power. Corbyn´s election calls therefore for a serious reflection about politics in our type of societies.

Many people said they have voted for him because they understand what he is saying. They understand he is not a Conservative under the disguise of Labour. What he talks about is more than just a nuance of Conservative´s positions. That makes him clear and gives him the support of all those who believe the UK has become more unequal and less friendly to the weak. The lesson here is simple: if you want to be seen as an alternative be clear about your positions, make them be seen as clearly distinct from those of your opponents.

He has also attracted the backing of many younger voters. He might be wrong in his prescriptions and policy options but he grounds them on values and generosity. And that´s what the young people want to hear. Values are back in the public opinion and politicians need to take that into account. There is less room today for opportunism and cynicism.

He might never become a prime minister. I do not see the majority of the British voting for him. He might even be bad news for Europe as I do not see him engaging in the Yes campaign at the time of the British referendum on the EU.

But he will make politics in the UK a bit more popular and interesting for a good while. David Cameron can expect a number of good fights in Parliament.