What do you mean when you say the Left?

After a very long journey, I just have a question: what does it mean to be a political progressive leader today? Said differently, what is it we should call the Left? What defines it? 

Time to focus on Angola´s democratization

Angola does not attract a lot of media attention. It is an important country in its part of the world, because of its size, wealth and military power. But is also a very poor example in terms of democratic rule and even worst, if we look at governance and accountability issues. 

It is a rich country with plenty of poverty. And it is a country that locks up people as soon as they express any type of opposition to the ruling class. 

That´s the case with 15 grassroots individuals that have been in jail for about three months for the simple reason they organised a public demonstration to call for more democracy and human rights. They are now under the very serious charge of treason and threats against the constitutional order –“coup d´état attempt”-, as accused by the government. It is a farce, a travesty of rule of law.

It is time to talk about it. As it is time to call for democratic change in the country.

Late thoughts

In democratic politics, success is about votes. The more you get the more successful you are. There is no other measure as it is very difficult to assess the theoretical merit of ideas and political proposals. Therefore, if you get involved in politics you should aim at getting as much support as possible. There is no other way out.

I might disagree with your approaches to public matters. But you get more votes than I, I have to accept that you are in charge. Being in charge does not mean however that you are right. It means you have been able to bring on board, to your side, a good number of people. And that is the basis of political legitimacy. And it gives you the authority to be in charge. 

Portugal: are we moving to the far left?

The Portuguese voted on 4 October for a new parliament. No party got a majority vote. There is a need for a coalition government to ensure stability. And the movement seems to be in the direction of a left of the left alliance, under the leadership of the Socialist Party. If it happens, it will be the first of its kind since 1975. And it would be a major shift in the national politics of the country. 

Trident Juncture 2015

I am just back from NATO exercise Trident Juncture 2015.

I have been involved in it for the last 18 months or so. It has been a long process, with different phases of the scenario and the “response” of the international community.

The points here are the following: first, the “crisis” takes place far away from Europe, in an imaginary region to the South of our Continent; second, it is a “crisis response exercise” that follows a model requiring the approval of the UN Security Council; third, it is therefore clear that the exercise is not about defending the Alliance, it is not about collective defence, a concept that is well known; it is about helping a fictional country to address an aggression coming from a neighbouring state; fourth, it is not directly related to the current tensions in Europe or in the Middle East; it was planned well before President Putin´s new posture; and fifth, it was about training the commanders in the context of complex civilian environment.

My role was to play the UN Special Representative of the Secretary-general. It was about sharing many years of UN senior experience. And it is rewarding to see the interest it raised. 

Learning from Putin

During the last many days I have been fully taken by a major military exercise. As a civilian and someone who has a very good number of years on the shoulders, the exercise leaves me a bit worn out, by the end of the day. But it is interesting to see how the top officers respond to a complete set of new challenges that in the world of today go far beyond just military means.

The military campaigns have changed and today´s world calls for a different approach to operational design. Plans have to be complex and combine a good number of actions, many of them within the civilian realm.

In many ways, Putin is one of those political leaders that fully understands the new ways of waging “war”. To pay detailed attention to his modus operandi gives us a chance to learn a few techniques that make sense.

The only problem is that we might learn some methods from him but cannot agree on his approach to international relations. 

After hours in Zaragosa

I took a long walk this evening. It was a pleasure to wander in the main avenues of Zaragoza, in Eastern Spain, and see so many locals just strolling around in a relaxed manner, enjoying the weather, the end of the day and the serenity of the place. Zaragoza is a large city but it keeps a strong human dimension and it is pretty affordable. That makes it, like many other cities in Spain, very attractive and relaxing. 

Putin´s game in Syria

Russia´s latest actions in Syria have confirmed my thesis as well as the opinion piece I publish today in the Portuguese weekly magazine Visão. Vladimir Putin´s goal is to keep Bashar al-Assad in charge. He thinks that the Damas man is the best bet in terms of safeguarding the Russian naval and air bases in the country. He also believes that there is no good replacement for Assad at this stage. He fully understands Assad´s limitations but he sees no other actor in a position to do better. Putin is afraid of a greater chaotic situation if his protégé falls. Therefore, he is ready to fight for him. But Putin is also a realist. He knows that sooner or later someone else has to be found. He is certainly looking for such a potential leader…

International law and the fight against terrorism

When discussing terrorism, one should keep in mind a number of issues. One of them is the concept of self-defence. Basically the point is about the lawful use of force by States against an individual or groups of individuals that are recognised as representing, planning or preparing to carry out a serious armed threat. Linked to the concept are the notions of gravity, imminence, and pre-emptive action as well as the measured use of force.

The UN has spent quite a bit of its time looking at these matters. There are two Security Council Resolutions that provide most of the legal basis for the response by States to terrorism. One, UN Security Council Resolution 1368 (2001) was approved in the aftermath of the 9/11 acts. The other – UNSC Resolution 1373 (2004) – authorises States “to take steps to prevent the commission of terrorist acts”.

As the discussion goes on and taking into consideration new developments, such as the drone strikes, it would be appropriate to review these resolutions and maybe adopt a more comprehensive one. The call for legal basis for action should be taken back to the UN Security Council. 

UN General Assembly

It was a busy day at the UN General Assembly. The speeches by key world leaders and the many side meetings have shown that the United Nations remains, notwithstanding all the constraints it faces, the key political forum for dialogue and cooperation. There is no other institution that can match the UN.

More specifically, the emphasis on development matters and on peace operations remains strong. They are important pillars of the UN´s work. But they should not let us forget the key relevance of human rights and women´s empowerment.